Suchergebnisse

Ova doktorska disertacija bavi se glasovanjem, najočitijim oblikom političke participacije građana u modernom demokratskom poretku. Većina istraživanja biračkog ponašanja usmjerena je na proučavanje uzroka glasovanja te na procese oblikovanja stranačkih preferencija (Šiber, 1998b). Međutim, glasovanju možemo pristupiti kao političkoj odluci, a u tom slučaju se javlja pitanje kako tu odluku evaluirati. Potencijalni kriterij za evaluaciju možemo naći u konceptu točnog glasovanja (Lau i Redlawsk, 1997). Ukoliko građanin glasuje za onu stranku kojoj bi dao glas i kada bi bio suočen sa svim relevantnim političkim informacijama, možemo reći da je on točno glasovao. Koristeći kriterij točnog glasovanja možemo evaluirati građansko odlučivanje, ali i kvalitetu demokracije. Ovaj rad ima dva cilja. Kao prvo, zbog niza konceptualnih i operacionalnih nedostataka, on nudi rekonstrukciju koncepta točnog glasovanja. Kroz detaljno povezivanje spoznaja o biračkom ponašanju i pretpostavki modela predstavničke demokracije, uvodi se nova definicija točnog glasovanja, kao onog koji je dan stranci koja je u najvećoj mjeri bliska glasačevim preferencijama. Uz to, problematizira se korisnost ovog koncepta te njegov utjecaj na empirijska istraživanja građanskih kompetencija i na evaluaciju demokratskog poretka. Drugi cilj ovog rada je empirijski – provjeriti koje individualne i situacijske karakteristike doprinose točnom glasovanju. Očekivalo se kako će točnije glasovati sudionici s boljom političkom ekspertizom (visoka politička sofisticiranost i informiranost, visoka motivacija za politiku, više obrazovanje i niža dob), ali i oni koji donose odluke u jednostavnijem okruženju (niže kognitivno opterećenje i lakša politička pitanja). U tu svrhu provedeno je eksperimentalno istraživanje na 210 sudionika koji su sudjelovali u izmišljenoj političkoj kampanji. Tijekom kampanje su prikupljali podatke o strankama i na kraju su glasovali za jednu od njih. Rezultati su pokazali kako točnije glasuju sudionici s višom razinom političke informiranosti, zatim sudionici koji su koristili kompleksnije strategije odlučivanja i sudionici koji su suočeni s nižom razinom kognitivnog opterećenja. Neočekivano, dobiven je i efekt spola – žene točnije glasuju od muškaraca. U radu su ponuđena objašnjenja za nepotvrđene hipoteze i neočekivane rezultate, kao i potencijalna primjena dobivenih rezultata u javnom životu. ; Elections are the main characteristic of modern democracies; as of September 2016., 82 national elections took place this year and almost 650 million people voted. Adult citizens experience elections and participate in voting roughly once every four years. Ever since the empirical research in political science focused on voting behaviour the main focus of inquiry was the understanding of antecedents of vote choice as well as the long-term shaping of political preferences (Šiber, 1998). The vote itself can be conceptualized in many ways, such as a statement of group membership (e.g. Berelson, Lazarsfeld & McPhee, 1954), identification with the party (Campbell et al., 1964), as a choice between parties etc. If we approach the vote from a decision-making perspective, a question comes to mind – can we say what is the quality of that choice? In other words, can we evaluate the process and the outcome of the voting decision? This are rather hard questions which is not adequately addressed by researchers, both theoretically and empirically. In order to answer them, Lau and Redlawsk (1997) put forward the concept of correct voting – a vote that is the same as the one that would be given if a voter had all the relevant information. This doctoral thesis is concerned with that concept. It had two broad goals. First, a critique of the concept was put forward, as well as a conceptual reconstruction of correct voting. The new approach to the concept is more clear and better connected to both citizens' competences and democratic theory. The second goal was to study empirically the antecedents of correct voting. For this goal a laboratory experiment was conducted in which participants (N=210) participated in a mock electoral campaign at the end of which they had to vote. Participants differed in various socio-demographic and political characteristics and within the experiment cognitive load and type of political questions in the campaign were manipulated. Results showed that those participants that had better political knowledge, were exposed to lower cognitive load and used complex strategies of decision. Also, an unexpected result was found – women voted more correctly than men. In order to think about the criteria for evaluating the process of voting, one must first understand the relationship between voters and election within democracy. This requires that one chooses a model of democracy. There is an array of these models, and each one focuses on different aspects of the political regime. For the concept of correct voting the most adequate model is that of representative democracy. In this model, democracy is though about as a political system in which the citizens are sovereign, and a smaller group of representatives execute citizens' will. Representatives are chosen via regular competitive elections, and citizens should choose hose representatives that represent their interest in the best way. Other than choosing a model of democracy, we must choose a theoretical approach for political behaviour. We can identify five approaches (those based on personality, sociological model, socio-psychological model, economic-rational model and cognitive model), and within this research a cognitive approach is taken for studying political behaviour and decision-making. This model focuses on cognitive processes, such as evaluation of political candidates, mental strategies, biases, memory etc. The main idea of the cognitive approach is that all thinking is constrained by both biological aspects of the brain as well as the situational pressures (such as the amount of information). As a consequence, citizens will be prone to using mental shortcuts to simplify the political environment. Lau and Redlawsk's (1997) concept of correct voting could be used as a norm of political decision-making. It focuses on cognitive processes and offers an ideal outcome of political thinking which at the same time has implications for the functioning of representative democracy. If citizens choose their representatives correctly than democracy should function better than if that is not the case. However, there are several issues with this concept - there are two distinct conceptualizations and operationalisations of correct voting; authors focus more on the level of information than on the cognitive processes; their norm has within itself several descriptive aspects etc. This thesis puts forward a definition of correct voting – a correct vote is the one which is given to a representative whose political preferences are in the highest concordance with the voter's. Keeping the cognitive approach in mind, several individual and situational characteristics are identified as having a probable impact on the probability for voting correctly. It is expected that citizens who are more politically sophisticated, informed and motivated, as well as those who are better educated and younger should vote more correctly. Considering situational characteristics, higher cognitive load should lower the probability of voting correctly. Also the content, or type of political information, should have an impact on that probability. Political issues can be divided into easy/symbolic/moral and hard/instrumental/public policy. As the percentage of easy issues within a campaign increases so should the probability of casting a correct vote. In order to test these hypotheses an experiment was conducted in which participants participated in a mock election. They collected information about four parties and in the end voted for one of these. Last part of the thesis offers a discussion about the results, their political implications as well as guidelines for future research.

Rad se bavi istraživanjem učinaka personalizacije izbornog sustava prije svega na političke stranke i kandidate za zastupnike. Pod personalizacijom izbornog sustava smatra se uvođenje mehanizama u izborni sustav koji osiguravaju veću ulogu birača u izboru njihovih parlamentarnih zastupnika. U radu su predstavljene četiri gusto opisane studije slučaja koje su služile kao temelj za testiranje temeljne i pomoćnih hipoteza. Rad sadrži fokusiranu poredbenu analizu dometa personalizacije izbornog sustava u odnosu na tri ključna slučaja (Austrija, Nizozemska i Finska), kao i u odnosu na kontrolni slučaj Kosovo. U radu je dokazano da snažni personalizirani izborni sustavi, koji imaju najveće vrijednosti personalizacije, odnosno izmjerene vrijednosti utjecaja dva institucionalna potičuća mehanizma koji su predstavljali nezavisne varijable ovog istraživanja (a. preferencijsko glasovanje unutar razmjernog sustava stranačkih lista i b. procedura selekcije kandidata), dovode do personalizacije političkih stranaka na razini zastupnika. Kroz dokazivanje pomoćnih hipoteza ispraćeni su učinci personalizacije izbornog sustava na političke stranke, kandidate/zastupnike, birače odnosno stranački/politički sustav. U radu predstavljeni nalazi fokusirane poredbene analize potvrđuju da snažna personalizacija izbornog sustava vodi personalizaciji izborne kampanje te smanjenoj ulozi političkih stranaka u političkom životu. Smanjena uloga stranaka u kampanjama otvara prostor jačanju uloge konkretnih donatora. Poslanici postaju nezavisniji u odnosu na stranku, ali s druge strane otvoreni za utjecaje donatora svojih kampanja. Nemogućnost opoziva, odnosno tekovina da je zastupnik, a ne stranka vlasnik mandata, dodatno ojačava poziciju zastupnika, a slabi poziciju stranke. Pozicija zastupnika jača, kao i birača koji imaju u snažno personaliziranim izbornim sustavima mogućnost presudnog utjecanja na to tko će ih zastupati u parlamentu, odnosno na koga će privremeno prenijeti suverenitet kao njegovi nositelji. Finski primjer najbolje pokazuje utjecaj snažne personalizacije izbornog sustava na političke stranke, kandidate i birače u konsolidiranoj demokraciji. Slučaj Kosova kao kontrolni slučaj govori da ukoliko izostane prevlast osobnog u odnosu na stranačko u unutarstranačkim procesima, učinci snažnog preferencijskog sustava bit će umanjeni. Izostanak vladavine prava utječe na ravnopravnost kandidata u predizbornim kampanjama, ali snažno preferencijsko glasovanje umanjuje negativne efekte izostanka demokratskih procedura unutar stranke te potiče daljnju demokratsku konsolidaciju u nekonsolidiranim demokracijama. ; The doctoral dissertation deals with research into the effects of personalization of the electoral system primarily on political parties and candidates for deputies. The personalization of the electoral system means the introduction of mechanisms in the electoral system that ensure a greater role for voters in the election of their parliamentary representatives. I define the electoral system as a "set of laws and party rules governing electoral competition between and within the parties" (Cox 1997: 38). This wider definition of the electoral system gives us space to build a more complete picture of the electoral system's impact on political parties, candidates and voters as main actors in the electoral process. The focus of the research is the relationship between personal and party representation. In order to conduct a more comprehensive analysis of the effects of personalization on political parties, the research framework is narrowed down to list proportional electoral systems with preferential voting. Contemporary liberal democracy is characterized by a highly personalized politics. Governments are more recognizable by their leaders than by the parties that are the basis of their constitution. This personalization trend is not characteristic exclusively of presidential systems, but has become a feature of parliamentary political systems. In addition to personalization of the party at the leader level, there is also the personalization of politics at the level of members of parliament (MPs). In this paper, we only use the term 'personalization of a party' in reference to personalization at the level of the MP. We will not deal with the question of the presidentialization of political parties. Under the personalization of a political party at the level of MPs, we mean strengthening the position of deputies in the intra-party decision-making process. Thanks to the introduction of preferential voting in list proportional list systems, the group of electoral systems in which voters play an important role in the selection of their representatives has significantly expanded. Historically speaking, the representative position has been strengthened by the accepted attitude that the MP, not the party, is the 'owner of the mandate'; preferential voting supports this. This paper deals with the personalization of politics at the level of the representative—the political party. That is to say, it explores the question of to what degree personalization of the electoral system affects the political party, its intra- and its inter-party dimension. Moreover, the paper deals with personal and party representation, an area that is a new field of interest for political scientists. Through this relationship, I explore the effect of electoral systems on political parties, candidates and voters. in developing this work, I was guided by the results achieved by Katz (1980, 1986) and Marsh 9 (1985) who first dealt with this issue. In his book A Theory of Parties and Electoral Systems (1980), Katz took his first steps in the research of preferential systems. Five years later, Marsh (1985) was dealing with differences between the preferential systems in Europe. In their works, Katz and Marsh set forth the first hypotheses about the effects of preferential voting. Although there has been a growing interest in research in this area over the last decade, no significant progress has yet been made. Karvonen (2004) made a significant step in systematizing the hypotheses of Katz and Marsh, and he added some more points. In his last paper on this subject (2011), Karvonen was working within the same group of hypotheses, which were open to further research. They are the basis of this research, with additional contributions. A major impetus for this work was one of the most influential articles in this field, 'Incentives to Cultivate a Personal Vote: A Rank Ordering of Electoral Formulas' by Carey and Shugart (1995), which examines the question of the influence of electoral systems on the candidate's electoral strategies—that is, how electoral systems influence the pre-election roles of parties and their candidates. The authors developed three variables: (1) lack of party leadership control over access to and rank in ballots; (2) degree to which candidates are elected on individual votes independent of copartisans; and (3) whether voters cast a single intra-party vote instead of multiple votes or a party-level vote. By combining these three variables, there are up to thirteen combinations. This approach set me up to explore the impact that personalization creates when it comes to the relationship between the MP candidate and the party, or the MP and the party. Most authors agree that the introduction of personalization of the electoral system significantly affects interparty relations, which are sometimes reflected in a high degree of autonomy in campaigning and even in the collection and spending of funds for funding of their personal campaign. The bidding of candidates from the same party exercises a strong influence on intra-party relations, and it often happens that rival relations within the parties remain in the shadow of rival relations between the parties.

Research on the postmodern orientations of voters in Croatia started in the 1990 elections & was continued in the 1992 elections. The indicators of postmodern value orientations had to be changed. War had distanced the Croatian electorate considerably from the desired rational orientation -- within which modern & postmodern differ. Postmodernism had a small erosion, from 4% to 3.2%, while desired rational orientation fell from 60% to only 6.8%. Postmodern-oriented voters were most evident in the youngest age group, those studying, & professionals. Changes were noted in the agricultural group, who climbed from last place to third. The results of the research follow postmodern orientations toward the concepts of sustainable development & sustainable energy policies. They indicate a significantly better situation when the subject is the presence of postmodern value orientations in the electorate of Croatia. It appears to be divided almost equally; 50% support the classic concept of development, while 50% support sustainable development. This could cause political polarization of the voting body when reconstruction & development are on the agenda. With respect to the energy policy as one of the most important components of development policy, the results of the research indicate that almost the entire voting body (97%) would support only a sustainable energy policy. 1 Table. Adapted from the source document.

The paper depicts various orientations, methodological approaches & insights into the three dominant types of electoral process research: political/sociological, focusing on the position of the individual within the structure of society; political/psychological, focusing on the party identification & the structure of attitudes; & political/economical, focusing on the rational choice process. By distinguishing between the substantial & the procedural rationality, these approaches are not considered to be rival or mutually exclusive, but complementary, enabling us to understand individual electoral decisions through their interaction. 21 References. Adapted from the source document.

By applying the analytical model derived by Deegan-Krause, the paper analyzes social cleavages underpinning the party preferences in the elections for the Croatian Parliament in 2003. The results of the research carried out on a sample of 2,000 adult Croatian citizens by phone interviews two days before the elections indicate that this model has identified relatively shallow social cleavages underlying the voting behavior in the analyzed elections. Namely, out of thirteen analyzed attitudes only three significantly explain a part of the variance in party preferences, the most significant being the attitude concerning the cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia in the Hague & the attitude concerning abortion. The results also show there is a significant link among certain socio-demographic characteristics, the attitudes about the political issues in question & the party preferences. This means that there might be a social cleavage at work here. Tables, Figures, References. Adapted from the source document.

By applying the analytical model derived by Deegan-Krause, the paper analyzes social cleavages underpinning the party preferences in the elections for the Croatian Parliament in 2003. The results of the research carried out on a sample of 2,000 adult Croatian citizens by phone interviews two days before the elections indicate that this model has identified relatively shallow social cleavages underlying the voting behavior in the analyzed elections. Namely, out of thirteen analyzed attitudes only three significantly explain a part of the variance in party preferences, the most significant being the attitude concerning the cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia in the Hague & the attitude concerning abortion. The results also show there is a significant link among certain socio-demographic characteristics, the attitudes about the political issues in question & the party preferences. This means that there might be a social cleavage at work here. Tables, Figures, References. Adapted from the source document.

In the last two decades, turnout research has disintegrated into a plethora of studies which focus on partial aspects of turnout. The overall idea of why people vote has been lost. Despite extensive research on turnout, we know relatively little about why people vote. The aim of this text is to present and critically discuss basic theories that explain voter turnout at the individual level. Overall, six theories are presented: the theory of socio-economic status and resources, the theory of civic orientations, the theory of mobilization and involvement in society, the theory of rational choice, the theory of valence politics, and the theory of habitual voting. These theories are discussed mainly from three aspects: (1) the causal mechanisms explaining why people vote; (2) the extent to which each theory links the decision to participate in an election with the decision about which party or candidate to vote for, as well as the sequence of these decisions; and (3) the timing of voters' decisions to participate in an election. The author argues that because of the heterogeneity of voters and the nature of the decision whether or not to vote, it is necessary to understand individual theories not as competitive, but rather as complementary. Adapted from the source document.

The theory of public choice is a major link between political science & economic science. It includes economic research into the issue of non-market decision making, ie, the application of economic analysis to political decision making. The champions of the theory of public choice have the most confidence in the market & market institutions. They try to explain political decision making by means of the standards operating in the market. The public choice theory approach is based on the concept of methodological individualism & homo oeconomicus, since individuals try to promote their own interests both in the market & in politics. Theoreticians of public choice investigate voters' behavior, the roles of politicians, political parties, & interest groups in complex democratic societies. Central for their research is the political process in which voters behave as buyers, & politicians as entrepreneurs, while bureaucrats are prone to self-aggrandizement; their ambition is to boost the significance of their office. The theory of public choice emphasizes the category of exchange (political exchange) & the catalectic approach to economy. 12 References. Adapted from the source document.

This work presents the results of empirical research on the relation among authoritarianism, political worldview, & party choice. Based on the existing research, the starting assumption is that authoritarianism is largely typical for the electoral body of the "right-wing" parties as well as for the conservative worldview. The specially designed scale for measuring authoritarian/conformist tendencies has shown a marked mono-dimensionality & inner consistency. The findings have confirmed the initial assumption; they have also shown a relatively regular correspondence between a party's position on the "Left-Right" spectrum & the degree of authoritarianism of its electoral body. The sole exception is a higher degree of authoritarianism of HDZ's electoral body than that of HSP's, which may be explained by the fact that the applied scale has measured solely the attitude towards authority & conformity & not the attitude towards minority groups, which is a component of the famous "F" scale. Also, it has been shown that the voters of the so-called "modernist" worldviews (liberal, social-democratic) are significantly less authoritarian than the voters of the so-called "conservative" worldviews (democratic-Christian, Christian-socialist, traditional, or conservative). 10 Tables, 2 Figures, 20 References. Adapted from the source document.

Mijenjaju li se stavovi građana o demokraciji u uvjetima povećane institucionalne nestabilnosti i promjena u stranačkom sustavu u Hrvatskoj u posljednjih nekoliko godina? Nastojeći odgovoriti na to pitanje, autori polaze od koncepta političke potpore demokraciji kakav je izvorno zamislio David Easton, a nadogradili su ga i operacionalizirali Russel Dalton i Pippa Norris. U članku se analiziraju odnos difuzne i specifične potpore demokraciji u Hrvatskoj od 1999. do 2018. i utjecaj na ponašanje birača u oblicima glasovanja za etablirane stranke (lojalnost), nove i marginalne stranke (glas) te apstinencije (izlazak). Analiza obuhvaća sedam vremenskih točaka anketnih istraživanja izbora od 1999. do 2018. i nadovezuje se na druga istraživanja potpore demokraciji u Hrvatskoj. Rezultati potvrđuju da se s vremenom produbio jaz između normativne potpore i zadovoljstva funkcioniranjem demokracije, što se ogleda u povećanju broja kritičkih demokrata i nezadovoljnih autokrata. Premda su obje skupine još razmjerno ravnomjerno raspoređene među etabliranima i novim strankama, ima naznaka da nezadovoljni autokrati sve češće biraju "glas" umjesto "izlaska". Pritom, ukupna slika unutarnje strukture potpore demokraciji nakon 2015. sve više nalikuje na stanje prije velikih institucionalnih promjena 2000, što pridaje posebnu dimenziju političkim promjenama 2015. i 2016. i otvara pitanje o utjecaju uspjeha novih političkih aktera na potporu demokraciji u Hrvatskoj. ; Have the attitudes of citizens on democracy changed under increased institutional instability and party system changes in Croatia in recent years? In an attempt to answer that question, the authors start with the concept of support for democracy as originally conceived by David Easton, and later further elaborated on by Russel Dalton and Pippa Norris. This article provides an analysis of the relationship between diffuse and specific support for democracy in Croatia between 1999 and 2018 and its impact on voting behaviour including casting a ballot for the established parties (loyalty), for the new and protest parties (vote) or abstention (exit). The analysis involves seven time points in electoral survey research between 1999 and 2018 in Croatia and is complementary to other research on support for democracy in the country. The results confirm that the gap between normative support and the satisfaction with how democracy works increases over time, which is also evident from the increase in the number of critical (dissatisfied) democrats, but also of dissatisfied autocrats. Although both groups are still rather evenly represented among the established and the new political parties, there are indications that the dissatisfied autocrats will more often than not opt for the vote rather than the exit. At the same time, the overall picture of the post-2015 internal structure of democratic support increasingly resembles the pre-2000 era, when major institutional changes took place, giving an added dimension to the political changes of 2015 and 2016 and sparking the question of the future impact that new political actors will have on the support for democracy.

Two analyses have been carried out for the purpose of this study. The first refers to the analysis of the gender differences in the development of civil sense (understanding citizenship) & the practice of citizenship (practicing citizenship). The second refers primarily to the analysis of the variables of the "school experience" (the school climate or the perceived opportunity for an open classroom discussion, & the variables of the perceived tasks of classroom learning or education) & how they influence the expected voting behaviour of adults. The findings were compared to similar international comparative studies (the 2001 TEA study, C. Hahn's study of 1998). Our study has shown that the gender differences regarding the civil political sense & the culture among young people have been diminishing but have not fully disappeared, & that there are significant differences among individual countries in that respect. Our research has shown that there are significant gender differences in their understanding of citizenship; these differences are somewhat smaller for the variable of the practice of citizenship among high-school students. However, those differences are not particularly pronounced. It seems that it is no longer justified to talk about civil political culture as "male culture," though gender still creates marked differences but no longer solely in favour of men. We have not come to the end of the road leading to a balanced civil political culture yet, at least regarding gender. & secondly, our study has shown that the political education of students & the perceived tasks of political education in schools influence the expected adult voting behaviour. This confirms the thesis that the classroom political education is relevant, at least to a limited degree, for the key variables of civil sense & practice. 4 Tables, 6 References. Adapted from the source document.

This work analyzes the relation between democracy & political participation, the typology & model of political participation, the findings of the research of political participation in the world (S. Verba, N. H. Nie, 1972; S. H. Barnes, M. Kaase, 1979; & others), & the research of the same phenomenon on a sample of Croatian students. This analysis has shown that today all the elements necessary for a more comprehensive theory of political participation are in place. This theory would enable a more systematic & standardized investigation of this phenomenon in the national & the international context. The article also shows how the nonconventional participation is gaining ground while the conventional is gradually leveling out. Significant are the results of the analysis of the etiology of political participation, particularly the relation between the standard SES model & the model of value orientations (left-right materialism, materialism-postmaterialism, etc). The analysis of the model of participation of Croatian students has shown that the model of 'protest behavior/potential' has a more complex etiology than other models, such as conventional participation & voting in parliamentary elections. Thus, for the 'protest potential' it is necessary to possess a developed civic competence, a critical attitude toward the government's performance, a liberal arts education, etc, while for the conventional participation it is central to have a higher level of political interest. Significant differences between the Croatian students & those from other European countries can be observed regarding the role of value orientations in explaining political participation. 5 Tables, 1 Graph. Adapted from the source document.