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In this brief analysis, we use a new dataset of two million voter registration records to demonstrate that gender, race, and age do not correlate with political participation in the ways that previous research has shown. Among Blacks and Latinos, women participate at vastly higher rates than men; many Blacks participate at higher rates than Whites; and the relationship between age and participation is both not linear and varies by race and gender. Survey research is unable to capture the true relationship between demographics and participation on account of survey bias and, more importantly, the non-linearity of effects. As a result, theories of participation, like the dominant resources-based models, have been built on faulty premises and tested with inadequate data. Our evidence calls for a renewed effort to understand election participation by utilizing large datasets, by being attentive to linearity assumptions, and by returning to theory.

AbstractQuantitative research has been the dominant methodological approach used to study voting behaviour. There is an emerging recognition, however, that there are alternative ways of attempting to understand how voters decide. The academic preoccupation with measurement, reliability, validity and generalisability may obscure some of the findings that are uncovered by practitioners using qualitative research. Practitioners of politics, both in the USA and the UK, tend to utilise both methods when formulating policy and exploring voter attitudes towards these policies. This paper will review the arguments for each tradition and examine the apparent divergence of practitioner and academic political research. Finally, it will look at how both positivist and interpretivist methods can be utilised to complement each other when attempting to build a picture of voting behaviour. Copyright © 2004 Henry Stewart Publications

"Strategic Voting Versus Sincere Voting" published on by Oxford University Press.

'This book provides a methodologically rigorous analysis that sheds new light on the young peoples' voting behaviour in Western Europe. A great reference for academics, practitioners, and students.' - Professor Alessandro Chiaramonte, University of Florence, Italy, & New York University, USA This book uses various concepts of 'age' to examine young people's voting behaviour in six European countries between 1981 and 2000. It addresses questions such as: what are the determinants of voting choices among young people, and to what extent are these factors different from those of adults? Through an innovative approach aimed at studying party choice with a strong empirical orientation, the author argues that age is less important in influencing voting choices than having been young and socialized to politics in a given historical period. Ultimately, values and political factors explain young people's voting choices more than social identities, which marks a change from previous generations. This book will appeal to students and scholars in comparative politics, electoral behaviour, party politics, and political sociology. Nicola Maggini is Research Fellow at the University of Florence, Italy, and a member of CISE (Italian Centre for Electoral Studies). He has published on Italian and international scientific journals and co-edited several volumes for the Dossier CISE series. His research focuses on socio-political attitudes and voting behaviour in a comparative perspective.

In this brief analysis, we use a new dataset of two million voter registration records to demonstrate that gender, race, and age do not correlate with political participation in the ways that previous research has shown. Among Blacks and Latinos, women participate at vastly higher rates than men; many Blacks participate at higher rates than Whites; and the relationship between age and participation is both not linear and varies by race and gender. Survey research is unable to capture the true relationship between demographics and participation on account of survey bias and, more importantly, the non-linearity of effects. As a result, theories of participation, like the dominant resources-based models, have been built on faulty premises and tested with inadequate data. Our evidence calls for a renewed effort to understand election participation by utilizing large datasets, by being attentive to linearity assumptions, and by returning to theory.

In this brief analysis, we use a new dataset of two million voter registration records to demonstrate that gender, race, and age do not correlate with political participation in the ways that previous research has shown. Among Blacks and Latinos, women participate at vastly higher rates than men; many Blacks participate at higher rates than Whites; and the relationship between age and participation is both not linear and varies by race and gender. Survey research is unable to capture the true relationship between demographics and participation on account of survey bias and, more importantly, the non-linearity of effects. As a result, theories of participation, like the dominant resources-based models, have been built on faulty premises and tested with inadequate data. Our evidence calls for a renewed effort to understand election participation by utilizing large datasets, by being attentive to linearity assumptions, and by returning to theory.

Numerous studies examine voting behavior based on the formal theoretical predictions of the spatial utility model. These studies model individual utility from the election of a preferred party or candidate as decreasing as the alternative deviates from one's ideal point, but differ as to whether this loss should be modeled linearly or quadratically. After advancing a theoretical argument for linear loss, this paper uses a wealth of data across 20 countries to empirically examine the predictive power of these two loss functions in terms of both voter choice and voter turnout. Results indicate that the linear loss function outperforms the quadratic loss function. The findings have important implications for theoretical scholars seeking to model voter behavior, for observational scholars, who must assign utility values across parties to individuals under study, and for experimental researchers, who must entice individuals with particular utility loss functions. [Reprinted by permission of Sage Publications Ltd., copyright holder.]

Democratic theory and electoral behavior / Ian McAllister -- The sociological and social-psychological approaches / Vincent Hutchings and Hakeem Jefferson -- Rational choice theory and voting / Keith Dowding -- Institutions and voting behavior / B. Guy Peters -- The big picture : turnout at the macro level / Jack Vowles -- Demographic and the social bases of voter turnout / Eric Plutzer -- Turnout and the calculus of voting : recent advances and prospects for integration with theories of campaigns and elections / John Aldrich and Libby M. Jenke -- Voting and the expanding repertoire of participation / Jan van Deth -- The acquisition of voting habits / Elias Dinas -- Long-term factors : class and religious cleavages / Geoff Evans and Ksenia Northmore-Ball -- Ideology and electoral choice / Martin Elff -- Party identification / Shaun Bowler -- Trends in partisanship / Oliver Heath -- Politics, media and the electoral role of party leaders / Anthony Mughan and Loes Aaldering -- Preferences, constraints, and choices : tactical voting in mass elections / R. Michael Alvarez, D. Roderick Kiewiet and Lucas Núñez -- Economic voting / Marianne Stewart and Harold Clarke -- Electoral systems / Iain McLean -- Electoral integrity / Pippa Norris -- Voting behavior in multi-level electoral systems / Hermann Schmitt and Eftichia Teperoglou -- Local context, social networks and neighbourhood effects on voter choice / Ron Johnston and Charles Pattie -- Voting behavior in referendums / Michael Marsh -- Networks, contexts, and the process of political influence / Robert Huckfeldt, Matthew T. Pietryka and John B. Ryan -- Persuasion and mobilization effects by parties and candidates / Justin Fisher -- Campaign strategies, media and voters : the fourth era of political communication / Holli Semetko and Hubert Tworzecki -- The role of mass media in shaping public opinion and voter behaviour / Susan Banducci -- Digital campaigning / Stephen Ward, Rachel Gibson and Marta Cantijoch -- Attitudes, values and belief systems / Oddbjørn Knutsen -- The stability of political attitudes / Robert Erikson -- Political knowledge: measurement, misinformation and turnout / Jennifer Hudson -- Is there a rational public? / Jørgen Bølstad -- The geometry of party competition. parties and voters in the issue space / Lorenzo de Sio -- The thermostatic model : the public, policy and politics / Christopher Wlezien -- Regime support / Pedro Magalhaes -- Generational replacement : engine of electoral change / Wouter van der Brug and Mark Franklin -- The dependent variable in election studies : studying respondents or responses as units of analysis / Cees van Der Eijk -- The quest for representative survey samples / Laura Stoker and Andrew McCall -- Horses for courses : using internet surveys for researching public opinion and voting behaviour / Edward Fieldhouse and Chris Prosser -- The use of aggregate data in the study of voting behavior : ecological inference, ecological fallacy and other applications / Luana Russo -- Election forecasting / Stephen Fisher -- Field experiments in political behavior / Donald Green and Erin A. York -- Making inferences about elections and public opinion using incidentally collected data / Jon Mellon

Democratic theory and electoral behavior / Ian McAllister -- The sociological and social-psychological approaches / Vincent Hutchings and Hakeem Jefferson -- Rational choice theory and voting / Keith Dowding -- Institutions and voting behavior / B. Guy Peters -- The big picture : turnout at the macro level / Jack Vowles -- Demographic and the social bases of voter turnout / Eric Plutzer -- Turnout and the calculus of voting : recent advances and prospects for integration with theories of campaigns and elections / John Aldrich and Libby M. Jenke -- Voting and the expanding repertoire of participation / Jan van Deth -- The acquisition of voting habits / Elias Dinas -- Long-term factors : class and religious cleavages / Geoff Evans and Ksenia Northmore-Ball -- Ideology and electoral choice / Martin Elff -- Party identification / Shaun Bowler -- Trends in partisanship / Oliver Heath -- Politics, media and the electoral role of party leaders / Anthony Mughan and Loes Aaldering -- Preferences, constraints, and choices : tactical voting in mass elections / R. Michael Alvarez, D. Roderick Kiewiet and Lucas Núñez -- Economic voting / Marianne Stewart and Harold Clarke -- Electoral systems / Iain McLean -- Electoral integrity / Pippa Norris -- Voting behavior in multi-level electoral systems / Hermann Schmitt and Eftichia Teperoglou -- Local context, social networks and neighbourhood effects on voter choice / Ron Johnston and Charles Pattie -- Voting behavior in referendums / Michael Marsh -- Networks, contexts, and the process of political influence / Robert Huckfeldt, Matthew T. Pietryka and John B. Ryan -- Persuasion and mobilization effects by parties and candidates / Justin Fisher -- Campaign strategies, media and voters : the fourth era of political communication / Holli Semetko and Hubert Tworzecki -- The role of mass media in shaping public opinion and voter behaviour / Susan Banducci -- Digital campaigning / Stephen Ward, Rachel Gibson and Marta Cantijoch -- Attitudes, values and belief systems / Oddbjørn Knutsen -- The stability of political attitudes / Robert Erikson -- Political knowledge: measurement, misinformation and turnout / Jennifer Hudson -- Is there a rational public? / Jørgen Bølstad -- The geometry of party competition. parties and voters in the issue space / Lorenzo de Sio -- The thermostatic model : the public, policy and politics / Christopher Wlezien -- Regime support / Pedro Magalhaes -- Generational replacement : engine of electoral change / Wouter van der Brug and Mark Franklin -- The dependent variable in election studies : studying respondents or responses as units of analysis / Cees van Der Eijk -- The quest for representative survey samples / Laura Stoker and Andrew McCall -- Horses for courses : using internet surveys for researching public opinion and voting behaviour / Edward Fieldhouse and Chris Prosser -- The use of aggregate data in the study of voting behavior : ecological inference, ecological fallacy and other applications / Luana Russo -- Election forecasting / Stephen Fisher -- Field experiments in political behavior / Donald Green and Erin A. York -- Making inferences about elections and public opinion using incidentally collected data / Jon Mellon