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At a time of escalating global conflict and instability, this book examines international efforts to protect children from the effects of war and armed conflict through the Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC), especially article 38, and the Convention's Optional Protocol on the involvement of Children in Armed Conflict (OPAC). The principal focus of the book is on the existing UN established machinery for implementing the CRC and OPAC - the Committee on the Rights of the Child and its

How can we understand change in armed conflict, both in terms of the phenomenon as a whole, as well as within individual conflicts? This Special Issue sets a new agenda on the theme of change in armed conflict. Studying conflict as a dynamic social phenomenon requires embracing interdisciplinarity and methodological pluralism, which this Special Issue facilitates through a shared conceptual framework on five dimensions of change as a 'lingua franca' across diverse approaches and perspectives. It advances debates through three contributions: by critically assessing pre-existing categories and labels; by accounting for perceptions and experiences; and by scaling analyses across varying units and levels of analysis.

The global number of armed conflicts continued to decline in 2003. A total of 29 conflicts in 22 countries were active in 2003, as against 31 conflicts in 23 countries in 2002. This is the lowest level of armed conflict since the early 1970s. The probability that any particular country was involved in a conflict has never been lower since the early 1950s. Five of the conflicts active in 2003 reached the level of war. A total of 229 armed conflicts in 148 countries have been recorded for the period after World War II (1946–2003). Of these, 116 conflicts in 78 countries were active in the period after the end of the Cold War (1989–2003). Most conflicts are internal: only seven interstate armed conflicts were recorded in the period 1989–2003, of which two were still active in 2003. The measurement of armed conflict is mainly based on news reporting, and it suffers from national and cultural biases. But the scrutiny of armed conflict is becoming more intense, and new sources of information are emerging. For this reason, we have increasing confidence in our data.

In 2010, UCDP recorded 30 active armed conflicts (i.e. with a minimum of 25 battle-related deaths). This is a substantial reduction in relation to the 36 conflicts registered for 2009. A drop of this magnitude has only been reported four times previously in the post-1946 period. However, only in two of these instances was this part of a general downward trend. Thus no major inferences should be drawn, except perhaps that the reduction in conflicts in Africa seems to be part of a trend. At 30 in 2010, the number of active conflicts is at its lowest level since 2003. Furthermore, the number of wars (1,000 or more battle-related deaths) declined from six in 2009 to four in 2010. The most intense war in terms of fatalities was in Afghanistan. Eight of the armed conflicts listed for 2009 were not active in 2010, but during the year two new conflicts erupted -- Mauritania and Tajikistan -- both involving rebel groups that had previously fought in neighbouring countries. Only two peace agreements were concluded during the year. While this is one more than 2009, it is decidedly below the annual average for the post-Cold War period. [Reprinted by permission of Sage Publications Ltd., copyright holder.]

Armed conflicts disrupt political, legal and social peace and create an environment conducive to human trafficking, as another dimension of violence and brutality. The direct connection between these two phenomena arises from the hostility of the parties in the conflict and encompasses the areas affected by the conflict, and the indirect connection is manifested in the area outside the conflict, in refugee camps or on migration routes. The most significant influencing factors on human trafficking, in addition to those operating in peace (push and pull factors), are the weakening of state institutions and the collapse of the rule of law, population displacement, poverty, population fragmentation and family collapse. The increased scope of migration (internal and cross-border) has a significant impact on human trafficking. Unsafe living conditions and various forms of violence complicate push and pull factors, which initiate mass migrations.People on migrant routes are very vulnerable and exposed to organized criminal groups and terrorist groups, with the risk of becoming victims of human trafficking or other forms of violence. The characteristic types of exploitation in armed conflict are sexual exploitation, sexual slavery, forced labor, organ removal, and recruitment to engage in conflict, often involving children. The main actors in human trafficking are armed and criminal groups. By trafficking, armed groups carry out a profit for their own financing, strengthen military capabilities and create fear among the population to control the territory. Sexual and other violence is also used as part of broader strategies to expel undesirable groups and exploit disputed land and other resources. Trafficking in children is mainly a consequence of the economic difficulties experienced by their families. Children are usually exploited in areas of work that do not require special expertise, such as agricultural work, street sales, etc., but are also used in armed conflicts as suicide bombers or human shields. The use of children as armed fighters is widely documented in sub-Saharan and central Africa, the Middle East, and other regions of Asia. In addition to various types of violence and general suffering of the population, human trafficking in armed conflicts has a particularly negative impact on human rights violations, when the exploitation of victims can be transformed into more serious crimes. Suitable conditions for human trafficking persist after the conclusion of a formal truce or peace. The lack of the legal system's and institution's functioning results in impunity for perpetrators of criminal acts and the growth of organized crime, and thus human trafficking. The persistently high degree of disintegration, which has affected human trafficking in armed conflicts, as well as the new difficult economic circumstances, further increase the risk of human trafficking. Particularly tempting targets for traffickers are displaced persons and refugees returning from camps or war camps. Human trafficking in the post-conflict period, although mostly indirectly, is also affected by the presence of various peace and other missions, especially on trafficking for sexual and labor exploitation.

A total of 110 armed conflicts have been recorded for the years 1989-99. Of these, 37 were active in 1999. This is the same number as in 1998 but an increase from 1997, after an overall decline in the number of conflicts per year since 1992. Seven interstate armed conflicts were recorded for the whole period, of which two were still active in 1999. Contrary to a common assumption that conflicts normally escalate gradually from minor armed conflicts, no such clear pattern is found. Peace agreement is the least common type of conflict termination in 1989-99.

In 2012, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) recorded 32 armed conflicts with a minimum of 25 battle-related deaths. This is a significant decrease from the 37 recorded in 2011. Overall, the 2000s has been the least conflict-ridden decade since the 1970s. A worrying finding, however, is that the number of internationalized intrastate conflicts continued to be at a high level for the fourth consecutive year. At six, the number of wars -- conflicts leading to 1,000 or more battle-related deaths -- remained the same as in 2011. In total, UCDP estimates that the conflicts that were active in 2012 caused between 37,175 (low estimate) and 60,260 (high estimate) battle-related deaths, with a best estimate of 37,941. The conflict that caused the highest number of fatalities in 2012 is the Syrian conflict, which led to between 14,830 (low) and 30,805 (high) battle-related deaths, with the best estimate being 15,055. Eleven armed conflicts listed in 2011 were not active in 2012; however, three new conflicts erupted during the year -- India (Garoland), Mali and South Sudan vs. Sudan (common border) -- and three previously registered conflicts were resumed by new actors. Lastly, 2012 saw an increase in the number of signed peace agreements which had been at a very low level over the past three years; four accords were concluded during the year, compared with one in 2011. [Reprinted by permission of Sage Publications Ltd., copyright holder.]

AbstractWe estimate the impact of large, catastrophic floods on internal armed conflict using global data on large floods between 1985 and 2009. The results suggest that while large floods did not ignite new conflict, they fueled existing armed conflicts. Floods and armed conflict are endogenously determined, and we show that empirically addressing this endogeneity is important. The estimated effects of floods on conflict prevalence are substantially larger in specifications that control for the endogeneity of floods, suggesting that treating natural disasters as exogenous phenomena may underestimate their impacts on sociopolitical outcomes.

In 2013, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) recorded 33 armed conflicts with a minimum of 25 battle-related deaths, up by one from 2012. Seven of these were recorded as wars, that is conflicts leading to 1,000 or more battle-related deaths in a calendar year. There have been 144 armed conflicts (47 wars) since 1989 and 254 armed conflicts (114 wars) since 1946. For the past ten years the amount of active armed conflict has fluctuated between 31 and 37. Six peace agreements were signed during the year 2013, two more than in the previous year. For the first time, this article also provides data on trends in battle-related deaths since 1989. These data do not show a clear time-trend. However, there is a particular difficulty in mapping the conflict in Syria, for which no credible battle-related deaths in 2013 can yet be reported.

This article proposes a direct relationship between complexity and predictability in a two-agent noncooperative zero-sum game (2XZSG). The author explores this proposition by modeling armed conflict as a 2XZSG and using case studies in armed conflict as the dataset for the systematic literature review. This article uses a multiple case study approach, systematically reviewing 13 case studies in armed conflict that yielded 156 references identifying four themes—environmental, human resource, operational, and supply chain constraints—that demonstrate a direct relationship between complexity and predictability. The data focuses on decisions made in particular battles and campaigns as well as the constraints that impacted decision making. By identifying those decisions and constraints, four themes emerged. These four themes are an innovation as a potential addendum to the war gaming methodology in the military decision making process (MDMP).

The article reviews the literature on the relationship between democracy and armed conflict, internal as well as interstate. The review points to several similarities between how democratic institutions affect both conflict types. It summarizes the main empirical findings and discusses the most prominent explanations as well as the most important objections raised to the finding, empirically and theoretically. To a large degree, the empirical finding that pairs of democratic states have a lower risk of interstate conflict than other pairs holds up, as does the conclusion that consolidated democracies have less conflict than semi-democracies. The most critical challenge to both conclusions is the position that both democracy and peace are due to pre-existing socio-economic conditions. I conclude that this objection has considerable leverage, but it also seems clear that economic development is unlikely to bring about lasting peace alone, without the formalization embedded in democratic institutions.

The Armed Conflict Survey 2022 provides an exhaustive review of the political, military and humanitarian dimensions of 33 active armed conflicts globally in the period from 1 March 2021 to 30 April 2022. The review is complemented by a strategic analysis of national, regional and global drivers and conflict outlooks, providing unique insights into the geopolitical and geo-economic threads linking conflicts across the world, as well as into emerging flashpoints and political risks. This edition includes a special feature on climate security given the increasingly urgent need to understand the complex interlinkages between climate change, climate vulnerability and conflict amid accelerating global warming. Reflecting the growing importance of geopolitical factors in the current global conflict landscape, The Armed Conflict Survey 2022 features the IISS Armed Conflict Global Relevance Indicator, which compares the global relevance of armed conflicts in terms of their geopolitical impact, as well as their human impact and intensity. This edition also includes maps, infographics and key statistics, as well as the accompanying Chart of Armed Conflict.

The Armed Conflict Survey 2022 provides an exhaustive review of the political, military and humanitarian dimensions of 33 active armed conflicts globally in the period from 1 March 2021 to 30 April 2022. The review is complemented by a strategic analysis of national, regional and global drivers and conflict outlooks, providing unique insights into the geopolitical and geo-economic threads linking conflicts across the world, as well as into emerging flashpoints and political risks. This edition includes a special feature on climate security given the increasingly urgent need to understand the complex interlinkages between climate change, climate vulnerability and conflict amid accelerating global warming. Reflecting the growing importance of geopolitical factors in the current global conflict landscape, The Armed Conflict Survey 2022 features the IISS Armed Conflict Global Relevance Indicator, which compares the global relevance of armed conflicts in terms of their geopolitical impact, as well as their human impact and intensity. This edition also includes maps, infographics and key statistics, as well as the accompanying Chart of Armed Conflict.

The Armed Conflict Survey 2023 provides an exhaustive review of the political, military and humanitarian dimensions of active armed conflicts globally in the period from 1 May 2022-30 June 2023. The review is complemented by a strategic analysis of regional and global drivers and conflict outlooks, providing unique insights into the geopolitical and geo-economic threads linking conflicts regionally and globally, as well as into emerging flashpoints and political risks to monitor. This edition's regional-focused approach also includes Regional Spotlight chapters on selected key conflict trends of regional and global importance. Reflecting the growing significance of geopolitical factors in shaping current conflict trends across the world, The Armed Conflict Survey 2023 features the third edition of the IISS Armed Conflict Global Relevance Indicator, which compares the global relevance of armed con icts in terms of their geopolitical impact, as well as their human impact and intensity. This edition also includes maps, infographics, key statistics and the accompanying Chart of Armed Conflict.

A total of 226 armed conflicts have been recorded for the years 1946-2002. Of these, 116 were active in the period 1989-2002, including 31 in 2002. There were five wars in 2002. Both numbers were the lowest for this period. Seven interstate-armed conflicts were recorded 1989-2002, of which one was still active in 2002. In 2002, a larger proportion of complex major armed conflicts were resolved, compared with new and minor armed conflicts. Although the data on armed conflict presented here suggest that there is a decline in the use of armed force, there is an increased feeling of fear and insecurity in many parts of the world because of terrorism incidents.