Suchergebnisse

The growth rate of the Indian economy has plummeted sharply from 9 per cent in 2010 to below 5 per cent over 2012−14. It is essential to sustain a growth rate of 8 per cent or more over the next 20 years to eliminate poverty and reach a decent standard of living. There is an urgent need for research on the challenges facing India in reviving and sustaining high rates of economic growth, some of which are related to industrial policy, trade policy, infrastructure bottlenecks, inflation and macroeconomic issues, governance issues, demography and human capital. There is also a need for better industrial and human resource policies, higher investment and savings rates, higher exports and foreign investment inflows. This book studies the importance of growth, the role of industrial policy in sustaining it, and other critical issues regarding ways to revive and sustain higher growth in India across various sectors of the economy.

This book brings together the latest research findings from leading economists from India and abroad on ways to revive and sustain higher growth rates in India. Divided into five parts, the first part empirically examines the various factors that affect poverty and shows that growth is crucial to poverty reduction. The second part investigates the factors responsible for sustaining industrial growth including skill formation and innovation. Part III analyses the critical role of monetary policy and shows that it is not very effective in the presence of commodity price shocks and supply constraints. It explains why RBI could not effectively control inflation and why the government must play a crucial supporting role in controlling inflation. Part IV then analyses various supply constraints to growth including agriculture, energy security, social and physical infrastructure and discusses how to deal with them effectively. Part V analyses the labour and financial market policies.

South–South bilateral trade partnerships have been growing increasingly important, and this article analyses the current patterns of bilateral trade between India and five Central Asian countries and the potential for improving them. We apply the gravity model of trade to construct a trade potential index from an Indian perspective and assess the potential for improving India's trade with Central Asia. We find that the volume of trade between India and Central Asia in 2015 could be six to ten times greater than the actual volume. Political disturbances in the countries that fall along the direct trade route are a major barrier to trade in this region; therefore, we re-examine the potential for trade using alternate routes via Iran and China. We find that the potential for greater bilateral trade between India and Central Asia continues to be positive.JEL Classification: F10, F14

Savings and growth are often strongly correlated. Thus, it is important to study the determinants of savings and the direction of causality between savings and growth as these have important implications for development policy. Yet, careful empirical studies on savings behavior are missing for Bangladesh. Thus, in this paper, we estimate the long-run total and private savings functions for Bangladesh using recent time series techniques. We find that the total savings rate is mainly determined by the GDP growth rate, dependency ratio, interest rates and bank density. The private savings rate is also affected by the public savings rate. Further, using the Granger Causality tests, we find that in Bangladesh, there is a bi-directional causality between savings and growth. We also carry out the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) analysis using the VAR framework. The FEVD results confirm the causality results obtained using the Granger causality tests as well as the estimated savings functions.