The forecasting potential of complex models
In: Policy sciences: integrating knowledge and practice to advance human dignity, Band 13, Heft 3, S. 247-267
ISSN: 1573-0891
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In: Policy sciences: integrating knowledge and practice to advance human dignity, Band 13, Heft 3, S. 247-267
ISSN: 1573-0891
In: Policy sciences: integrating knowledge and practice to advance human dignity ; the journal of the Society of Policy Scientists, Band 13, Heft 3, S. 247-267
ISSN: 0032-2687
The nature & use of "complex" models for forecasting & policy simulation are analyzed on theoretical & empirical-performance grounds. While the accuracy of complex models in forecasting trends in such fields as economic & energy is undistinguished, their special virtues -- preserving counterintuitive results & representing subsystem interdependence -- could be used to better advantage than current practice permits. Suggestions for such improvements, through more diversified models, microprocess models in addition to the typical macro models, a mix of mechanically & judgmentally operated models, & the modeling of policy response, are reviewed. 26 References. Modified HA.
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In: American political science review, Band 72, Heft 4, S. 1450-1451
ISSN: 1537-5943
In: Policy sciences: integrating knowledge and practice to advance human dignity, Band 39, Heft 1, S. 73-90
ISSN: 1573-0891
In: Policy Sciences (2006) 39: 73-90
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In: Policy sciences: integrating knowledge and practice to advance human dignity ; the journal of the Society of Policy Scientists, Band 39, Heft 1, S. 73-90
ISSN: 0032-2687
In: Political science quarterly: PSQ ; the journal public and international affairs, Band 116, Heft 1, S. 162-163
ISSN: 0032-3195
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In: Policy sciences: integrating knowledge and practice to advance human dignity ; the journal of the Society of Policy Scientists, Band 30, Heft 2, S. 71-90
ISSN: 0032-2687
In: Policy sciences: integrating knowledge and practice to advance human dignity ; the journal of the Society of Policy Scientists, Band 30, S. 71-90
ISSN: 0032-2687
Describes different types of citizen participation in the US, focusing on the planning process for West Virginia's Monongahela National Forest, 1979-86, and the initiative to ban clearcutting in the state of Maine on which a referendum was held on Nov. 5, 1996.
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In: Political psychology: journal of the International Society of Political Psychology, Band 5, Heft 3, S. 505
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In: American journal of political science, Band 19, Heft 3, S. 475
ISSN: 1540-5907