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BACKGROUND: The most commonly cited argument for imposing or lifting various restrictions in the context of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is an assumed impact on the reproductive ratio of the pathogen. It has furthermore been suggested that less-developed countries are particularly affected by this pandemic. Empirical evidence for this is lacking. METHODS: Based on a dataset covering 170 countries, patterns of empirical 7-d reproductive ratios during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic were analysed. Time trends and associations with socio-economic development indicators, such as gross domestic product per capita, physicians per population, extreme poverty prevalence and maternal mortality ratio, were analysed in mixed linear regression models using log-transformed reproductive ratios as the dependent variable. RESULTS: Reproductive ratios during the early phase of a pandemic exhibited high fluctuations and overall strong declines. Stable estimates were observed only several weeks into the pandemic, with a median reproductive ratio of 0.96 (interquartile range 0.72–1.34) 6 weeks into the analysis period. Unfavourable socio-economic indicators showed consistent associations with higher reproductive ratios, which were elevated by a factor of 1.29 (95% confidence interval 1.15 to 1.46), for example, in the countries in the highest compared with the lowest tertile of extreme poverty prevalence. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic has allowed for the first time description of the global patterns of reproductive ratios of a novel pathogen during pandemic spread. The present study reports the first quantitative empirical evidence that COVID-19 net transmissibility remains less controlled in socio-economically disadvantaged countries, even months into the pandemic. This needs to be addressed by the global scientific community as well as international politics.

Background: Support for smoke-free policies increases over time and particularly after implementation of the policy. In this study we examined whether the comprehensiveness of such policies moderates the effect on support among smokers. Methods: We analysed two waves (pre- and post-smoke-free legislation) of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) surveys in France, Germany, and the Netherlands, and two pre-legislation waves of the ITC surveys in UK as control. Of 6,903 baseline smokers, 4,945 (71.6%) could be followed up and were included in the analyses. Generalised Estimating Equations (GEE) were used to compare changes in support from pre- to post-legislation to the secular trend in the control country. Multiple logistic regression models were employed to identify predictors of individual change in support. Findings: In France, the comprehensive smoking ban was associated with sharp increases in support for a total smoking ban in drinking establishments and restaurants that were above secular trends. In Germany and the Netherlands, where smoke-free policies and compliance are especially deficient in drinking establishments, only support for a total smoking ban in restaurants increased above the secular trend. Notable prospective predictors of becoming supportive of smoking bans in these countries were higher awareness of cigarette smoke being dangerous to others and weekly visiting of restaurants. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that smoke-free policies have the potential to improve support once the policy is in place. This effect seems to be most pronounced with comprehensive smoking bans, which thus might be the most valid option for policy-makers despite their potential for creating controversy and resistance in the beginning.

Background: Support for smoke-free policies increases over time and particularly after implementation of the policy. In this study we examined whether the comprehensiveness of such policies moderates the effect on support among smokers. Methods: We analysed two waves (pre- and post-smoke-free legislation) of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) surveys in France, Germany, and the Netherlands, and two pre-legislation waves of the ITC surveys in UK as control. Of 6,903 baseline smokers, 4,945 (71.6%) could be followed up and were included in the analyses. Generalised Estimating Equations (GEE) were used to compare changes in support from pre- to post-legislation to the secular trend in the control country. Multiple logistic regression models were employed to identify predictors of individual change in support. Findings: In France, the comprehensive smoking ban was associated with sharp increases in support for a total smoking ban in drinking establishments and restaurants that were above secular trends. In Germany and the Netherlands, where smoke-free policies and compliance are especially deficient in drinking establishments, only support for a total smoking ban in restaurants increased above the secular trend. Notable prospective predictors of becoming supportive of smoking bans in these countries were higher awareness of cigarette smoke being dangerous to others and weekly visiting of restaurants. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that smoke-free policies have the potential to improve support once the policy is in place. This effect seems to be most pronounced with comprehensive smoking bans, which thus might be the most valid option for policy-makers despite their potential for creating controversy and resistance in the beginning.