Suchergebnisse

This paper develops and implements a new benchmarking approach for labor market regions. Based on panel data for regions, we use nonparametric matching techniques to account for observed labor market characteristics and for spatial proximity. As the benchmark, we estimate the counterfactual distribution of labor market outcomes for a region based on outcomes of similar regions. This allows to measure both the rank (relative performance) and the absolute performance based on the actual outcome for a region. Our outcome variable of interest is the hiring rate among the unemployed. We implement different similarity measures to account for differences in labor market conditions and spatial proximity, and we choose the tuning parameters in our matching approach based on a cross-validation procedure. The results show that both observed labor market characteristics and spatial proximity are important features to successfully match regions. Specifically, the modified Zhao (2004) distance measure and geographic distance in logs work best in our applications. Our estimated performance measures remain quite stable over time.

Academic careers in Germany have been under debate for a while. We conduct a survey among postdocs in Germany, to analyze the perceptions and attitudes of postdocs regarding their research incentives, their working conditions, and their career prospects. We conceptualize the career prospects of a postdoc in a life-cycle perspective of transitions from academic training to academic or non-academic jobs. Only about half of the postdocs sees strong incentives for academic research, but there is quite a strong confidence to succeed in an academic career. Furthermore, postdocs who attended a PhD program show better career prospects and higher research incentives compared to others. Academic career prospects and motivation are strongest for assistant professors. Apart from this small group, however, postdocs report only a small impact of the university reforms of the last decade. Female postdocs show significantly higher research incentives but otherwise we find little gender differences. Finally, good prospects in non-academic jobs are not associated with a reduction in the motivation for research.

Dieser Beitrag gibt einen Überblick der neueren wissenschaftlichen Literatur zur Evaluation der Aktiven Arbeitsmarktpolitik (AAMP) in Deutschland. Das Grundproblem mikroökonomischer Evaluation besteht darin, den Vergleichsmaßstab bei Nichtteilnahme zu schätzen, sei es auf Basis einer vergleichbaren Kontrollgruppe von Nichtteilnehmern oder auf Basis der Situation vor Teilnahme. Entscheidend ist hierbei, den potentiellen Selektionsproblemen Rechnung zu tragen. Evaluationsstudien auf der Makroebene müssen zusätzlich auch die indirekten Effekte der AAMP auf den gesamten Arbeitsmarkt berücksichtigen und der möglichen Endogenität der AAMP Rechnung tragen. Die meisten Evaluationsstudien für Deutschland zeigen keine signifiant positiven Beschäftigungseffekte der AAMP, sind jedoch mit großer statistischer Unsicherheit behaftet. Wir führen letzteres im wesentlichen darauf zurück, daß wegen zu geringen Datenumfangs meist äußerst heterogene Maßnahmen gepoolt werden und daß über Teilnehmer und Nichtteilnehmer zu wenige Hintergrundinformationen verfügbar sind. Aufgrund dieser Datenrestriktionen verbietet sich daher aus Sicht der Autoren ein vorschnelles Verdikt über die ökonomischen Wirkungen der AAMP, obwohl mögliche positive Effekte nicht sehr stark sein können, da sie sonst vermutlich trotz unterschiedlicher Methoden und unzureichender Daten empirisch hätten identifiziert werden können.

This paper examines critically the system of industry-level wage bargaining in Germany. More specifically, it shows that the importance of industry-level wage bargaining declines in Germany and that one major reason for this development is the highly restrictive institutional framework. However, fully decentralized wage bargaining at the firm level also exhibits some disadvantages. We compare the employment effects of industry-level and firm-level wage bargaining in a theoretical model integrating insider-outsider aspects and an exit clause in the wage contract. The exit clause effectively allows workers and firms to renegotiate the wage level in the case of a negative goods demand shock. The model yields ambiguous results with respect to the employment consequences of different wage bargaining regimes. As a consequence, we argue that industry-level wage bargaining should not be abandoned but be made more flexible instead.