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This study incorporates the issue-ownership concept into the aggregate presidential approval literature. A content analysis of media coverage from the Reagan through Clinton administrations of four party-owned issues—Social Security or Medicare, environmental protection, national defense, and size of government—demonstrates that when the agenda is dominated by issues on which the president's party enjoys credibility, approval increases, controlling for the typical economic and event variables. Similarly, increased coverage of issues owned by the opposition party leads to decreased approval, all things equal. Thus, when the media primes a party-owned issue, the public responds by evaluating the president consistent with his credibility on the issue. These relationships are robust across the typical functional forms used to model approval.

AbstractThe 2016 presidential election featured two candidates whose personal qualities Americans held in exceptionally low regard. Voters perceived Hillary Clinton to be knowledgeable, but dishonest. Assessments of Donald Trump were historically poor across the board. Because both candidates suffered from voter perceptions of their weak character, campaign attacks and media coverage combined to elevate character to a leading campaign issue. Yet our analysis of American National Election Studies data indicates that while voters were influenced by their perceptions of candidate character, only a small number of votes were changed by these perceptions. This is because candidate traits are more strongly determined by party identification than ever before, and because increasing party polarization has led to there being fewer genuinely persuadable voters than in past elections.

This article examines the effect of perceptions of the character traits of the presidential candidate on the vote in 2012. Barack Obama was perceived more favorably than Mitt Romney on empathy, integrity, and competence, and just as favorably on leadership. The more favorable perceptions of Obama were due to very unfavorable perceptions of Romney; perceptions of Obama were mixed and were less favorable than they were in 2008. Trait perceptions had a significant effect on the vote. Independents were most strongly affected, and they were particularly affected by perceptions of leadership and empathy. Democrats were influenced more by perceptions of empathy and competence, and Republicans were influenced more by leadership and integrity.

Barack Obama's defeat of John McCain in 2008 was hardly surprising given the campaign's context, which was toxic for the Republican Party. Yet, in such perilous times, McCain enjoyed certain advantages, namely his reputation for strong leadership and his years of government experi-ence that could have been profitably contrasted with Obama's relative youth and inexperience. Given these advantages, we speculate as to whether McCain could have pulled even with Obama in the popular vote by increasing his lead among persuadable voters on their perceptions of the candidates' character traits. Using ANES data on traits from 1988 to 2008, we conclude that, short of profound missteps by the Obama campaign, McCain would have had to accomplish more than simply shifting voter perceptions of character traits in a more favorable direction to win the election.

1. Candidate character traits in presidential elections -- 2. Conceptualizing and measuring candidate character traits -- 3. Voter perceptions of candidate character traits -- 4. The impact of candidate character trait perceptions on the vote -- 5. The formation of candidate character trait perceptions -- 6. Candidate character traits in the 2012 presidential election -- 7. Media consumption, character trait perceptions, and voting -- 8. May the best person win.

"Voter perceptions of the personal traits of presidential candidates are widely regarded to be important influences on the vote. Media pundits frequently explain the outcome of presidential elections in terms of the personal appeal of the candidates. Despite the emphasis on presidential character traits in the media, the scholarly investigation in this area is limited. In this book, David Holian and Charles Prysby set out to examine the effect that trait perceptions have on the vote, how these perceptions are shaped by other attitudes and evaluations, and what types of voters are most likely to cast a ballot on the basis of the character traits of the presidential candidates. Using the American National Election Studies (ANES) surveys, the authors find that traits do have a very substantial effect on the vote, that different candidates have advantages on different traits, and that the opinions expressed by media pundits about how the candidates are viewed by the voters are often simplistic, and sometimes quite mistaken. Character traits are important to voters, but we need a better and more complete understanding of how and why these factors influence voters. An essential read which provides a clear and original argument to all those interested in furthering their understanding of the importance of candidate character traits for the quality of American elections and democracy"--