Intelligence and security challenges of the European migrant crisis: an insight into an innovative forecasting model
In: European political, economic, and security issues
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In: European political, economic, and security issues
In: Terrorism, hot spots and conflict-related issues
In: European Political, Economic, and Security Issues
Intro -- Contents -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- Chapter 1 -- Dossier: The European Migrant Crisis -- Abstract -- 1.1. Introduction -- 1.2. A Short Reminder about the Past and Present of the Western Balkans - Conflicts, Policy, and Interests -- 1.3. The Intelligence Community and the Migrant Crisis -- 1.4. The Intelligence Community and the Challenges of the Current Migrant Crisis -- References -- Chapter 2 -- The Intelligence and Security Challenges of the European Migrant Crisis: Insight into an Innovative Forecasting Model -- Abstract -- 2.1. Introduction -- 2.2. ARIMA Intervention Modeling -- 2.3. Background and Problem Statement -- 2.3.1. Collection of Migrant Flow Time Series Data -- 2.3.2. Driving Mechanisms of the Smuggling Networks -- 2.4. The Conceptual Framework of the Research -- 2.4.1. The Conceptual Framework of Intervention Modeling With the CL Procedure and Estimation of the ARIMA-Intervention Model -- 2.4.2. Framework for Generating Future Forecasts with a Monte-Carlo Scenario-Playing Mechanism -- 2.4.3. The Process of Applying the Random Generators to Produce Different Future Scenarios -- 2.4.4. Concept of Computation of the Average Values of the Future Scenarios -- 2.4.5. Concept Of Estimation of Probability Distributions Over All Scenarios for Each Future Time Point and the Principle of Calculation of the Likelihood of Future Scenarios -- 2.5. Applied Methodology and Modeling Design -- 2.5.1. Basic ARIMA Time Series Models -- 2.5.2. ARIMA-Intervention Models -- 2.5.3. Estimation of Probability Density Functions and Calculation of Probabilities -- 2.6. Model Estimation Results and Analysis of Outliers -- 2.6.1. Identification of the Model Structure and Parameter Estimation -- 2.6.2. Model Validation -- 2.6.3. Analysis of Cumulative Intervention Effects
In: International journal of intelligence and counterintelligence, Band 28, Heft 3, S. 520-539
ISSN: 1521-0561
In: International journal of intelligence and counterintelligence, Band 28, Heft 3, S. 520-539
ISSN: 0885-0607
In: International journal of intelligence and counterintelligence, Band 27, Heft 3, S. 529-549
ISSN: 1521-0561
In: Understanding and Managing Threats to the Environment in South Eastern Europe; NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security, S. 327-348