INTERSTATE WARS IN THE THIRD WORLD: A MARKOV APPROACH
In: Conflict management and peace science: CMPS ; journal of the Peace Science Society ; papers contributing to the scientific study of conflict and conflict analysis, Band 10, Heft 1, S. 21-36
ISSN: 0738-8942
THIS PAPER ADVOCATES A MARKOV CHAIN MODEL OF WAR AS SUPERIOR TO THE SIMPLER OCCURRENCE OF WAR MODEL AS A METHOD OF RESEARCH INTO THE CAUSES OF WAR, WHEN WAR AND PEACE ARE CONCEIVED OF AS DESCRETE STATES SEPARATED BY RELATIVELY RAPID PROCESSES OF ESCALATION AND DEESCALATION. EMPIRICAL RESULTS SUPPORT THE NOTION THAT THE MILITARY RIVALRY BETWEEN THE SUPERPOWERS AND THEIR ALLIES HAS BEEN PLAYED OUT IN THE THIRD WORLD, AND THAT THE CONSEQUENCE IS A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN MILITARISM AND WAR IN THAT PART OF THE WORLD.