Suchergebnisse

Prediction markets are a promising instrument for drawing on the "wisdom of the crowds". For instance, in a corporate context they have been used successfully to forecast sales or project risks by tapping into the heterogeneous information of decentralized actors in and outside of companies. Among the main market mechanisms implemented so far in prediction markets are (1) the continuous double auction and (2) the logarithmic market scoring rule. However, it is not fully understood how this choice affects crucial variables like prediction market accuracy or price variation. Our paper uses an experiment-based and micro validated simulation model to improve the understanding of the mechanism-related effects and to inform further laboratory experiments. The results underline the impact of mechanism selection. Due to the higher number of trades and the lower standard deviation of the price, the logarithmic market scoring rule seems to have a clear advantage at a first glance. This changes when the accuracy level, which is the most important criterion from a practical perspective, is used as an independent variable; the effects become less straightforward and depend on the environment and actors. Besides these contributions, this work provides an example of how experimental data can be used to validate agent strategies on the micro level using statistical methods.

Theoretische, systematische und kulturgeographische Uberlegungen zu Migration und Globalisierung / Theoretical, Systematic and Culturalgeographical Reflections on Migration and GlobalisationSpracherwerb, Sprachbeherrschung und Sprachverwendung im Kontext von Migration / Language Acquisition, Language Proficiency and Language Use in the Context of MigrationMehrsprachigkeit, interkulturelle Spannungsfelder und Schulausbildung im Zusammenhang mit Migration / Multilingualism, Intercultural Areas of Tension and School Education in Migration Contexts

The research field of social simulation comprises many topics and research directions. A previous study about the early years indicated that the community has evolved into a differentiated discipline. This paper investigates the recent development of social simulation as reflected in Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation (JASSS) publications from 2008 to 2014. By using citation analysis, we identify the most influential publications and study the characteristics of citations. Additionally, we analyze the development of the field with respect to research topics and their structure in a co-citation analysis. The citation characteristics support the continuing highly multidisciplinary character of JASSS. Prominently cited are methodological papers and books, standards, and NetLogo as the main simulation tool. With respect to the focus of this research, we observe continuity in topics such as opinion dynamics and the evolution of cooperation. While some topics disappeared such as learning, new subjects emerged such as marriage formation models and tools and platforms. Overall, one can observe a maturing inter- and multidisciplinary scientific community in which both methodological issues and specific social science topics are discussed and standards have emerged.

In 2016, the only undergraduate program in health promotion and prevention (HP) in Switzerland to date was launched at the Zurich University of Applied Sciences. HP in Switzerland is well institutionalized and anchored in health politics, but the profession of HP practitioners is not well established yet. The conceptualization of HP as outlined in the Ottawa Charta makes it quite complex to teach and learn HP within an undergraduate program. The program (180 ECTS) is offered as a full-time (3 years) and part-time (5 years) program to a maximum of 66 students. The outlined learning outcomes are based on the CompHP to ensure international transferability of HP competencies. The focus is on a threefold methodological approach, consisting of (1) practical training, (2) skills training (research, project management, and communication), and (3) interprofessional training. Experiences with 5 years of program implementation have revealed challenges, e.g., adapting the form of study to the current trend of flexible education to enable more self-directed learning opportunities and promoting better employability of the graduates. By providing a supportive learning environment for HP, the program contributes to publicity and quality assurance in practice and policy of HP in Switzerland and internationally.

This paper identifies possible pitfalls of simulation modeling and suggests ways to prevent them. First, we specify five typical pitfalls that are associated with the process of applying simulation models and characterize the "logic of failure" (Dörner 1996) behind the pitfalls. Then, we illustrate important aspects of these pitfalls using examples from applying simulation modeling to military and managerial decision making and present possible solutions to them. Finally, we discuss how our suggestions for avoiding them relate to current methodological discussions found in the social simulation community.

Calculative culture and its impact on risk assessment An organizations culture, and specifically its calculative culture, impacts how and which risks are assessed (Power 2007). Mikes (2009) distinguishes ERM by the numbers and holistic ERM, which differ regarding their approach to assessing risks, raising the question of how the assessment of risks is impacted by the organization's culture. A cognitive perspective on risk assessment We need to better understand how actors think and communicate about risks (Power 2016). We can improve the understanding of how risk management happens in organizations by accounting for the sense-making of decision-makers regarding risks (Taarup‐Esbensen 2019). Distributed cognition in risk assessment Risk assessment needs to bring together expertise from several domains and to include different perspectives on a risk (ISO 2009). The cognitive task of assessing a risk is shared between several stakeholders, a setting described as distributed cognition (Hutchins 1995). Risk workshops as a tool of risk assessment A common approach to identify and assess risks are workshops, where people with different roles and hierarchies within the organization discuss and share their knowledge to come to an evaluation of certain risks (COSO 2017). Participants start with a list of predefined risks and discuss each risk for a limited time. The discussion ends with a decision on how to classify a risk, e.g., regarding its impact (Quail 2011).

Virtually all current major social and environmental challenges such as financial crises, migration, the erosion of democratic institutions, and the loss of biodiversity involve complex systems comprising decision-making, interacting, adaptive agents. To understand how such agent-based complex systems function and respond to change and disturbances, agent-based modeling (ABM) is increasingly recognized as the main way forward. Many motivating examples of agent-based models exist that are realistic enough to successfully support the management of complex systems, but these solutions are case-specific and contribute few general insights into the functioning of systems. General theory, though, is highly needed because we cannot model each system and question. Still, across disciplines, a critical mass of expertise has accumulated that could transform ABM into a more coherent and efficient approach to discover the functioning of complex social-economic-ecological systems. To this end, we need a cross-disciplinary discussion among researchers and a goal-oriented synthesis to identify the general principles and theories essential to improve our understanding and management of complex systems.

Simulationen stellen eine relevante Forschungsmethode in Controlling und Finanzwissen-schaft dar, diese Dissertation trägt an verschiedenen Stellen zu dieser Methodik bei. Erstens wird der Einfluss der Methodik auf das Forschungsfeld bibliometrisch quantifiziert und die Art der Nutzung sowie das Ausmaß der Diffusion in Forschungsclustern erfasst. Darüber hinaus trägt diese Dissertation eine auf Bayesscher Statistik beruhende Methodik zur Eingangsmodellierung von Simulationen bei. Zuletzt führt diese Dissertation eine neue Messgröße ein, die das Risiko in Simulationsmodellen von epistemologischer Unsicherheit in einer einzigen Zahl quantifiziert.

Simulationen stellen eine relevante Forschungsmethode in Controlling und Finanzwissen-schaft dar, diese Dissertation trägt an verschiedenen Stellen zu dieser Methodik bei. Erstens wird der Einfluss der Methodik auf das Forschungsfeld bibliometrisch quantifiziert und die Art der Nutzung sowie das Ausmaß der Diffusion in Forschungsclustern erfasst. Darüber hinaus trägt diese Dissertation eine auf Bayesscher Statistik beruhende Methodik zur Eingangsmodellierung von Simulationen bei. Zuletzt führt diese Dissertation eine neue Messgröße ein, die das Risiko in Simulationsmodellen von epistemologischer Unsicherheit in einer einzigen Zahl quantifiziert.

Kosteneffizienz hat nie an Relevanz als Wettbewerbsvorteil verloren, denn der Wettbewerb der Unternehmen mit Best-Cost-Ländern sowie die Produktvielfalt durch die Macht der Kunden haben in den letzten Jahren kontinuierlich zugenommen. Die Arbeit entwickelt daher ein theoretisches Framework mit dem Namen "extended axiomatic design" (EAD), der "engineering design theory" und "economic firm theory" integriert und damit eine umfangreiche Formalisierung von Produktprogrammen schafft. Die Verwendung des EAD zur Modellierung und Simulation ermöglicht die anschließend Untersuchung von Modularisierungsstrategien in Bezug auf Kosten, die effektive Auswahl von Designs von Kostensystemen und die Auswirkungen zufälliger Messfehler auf die kostenbasierte Entscheidungsfindung. Insgesamt widmet sich diese Arbeit der Entwicklung und dem Verständnis der Kosteneffizienz in Unternehmen durch die Untersuchung von Kostenmessung und -management.

Kosteneffizienz hat nie an Relevanz als Wettbewerbsvorteil verloren, denn der Wettbewerb der Unternehmen mit Best-Cost-Ländern sowie die Produktvielfalt durch die Macht der Kunden haben in den letzten Jahren kontinuierlich zugenommen. Die Arbeit entwickelt daher ein theoretisches Framework mit dem Namen "extended axiomatic design" (EAD), der "engineering design theory" und "economic firm theory" integriert und damit eine umfangreiche Formalisierung von Produktprogrammen schafft. Die Verwendung des EAD zur Modellierung und Simulation ermöglicht die anschließend Untersuchung von Modularisierungsstrategien in Bezug auf Kosten, die effektive Auswahl von Designs von Kostensystemen und die Auswirkungen zufälliger Messfehler auf die kostenbasierte Entscheidungsfindung. Insgesamt widmet sich diese Arbeit der Entwicklung und dem Verständnis der Kosteneffizienz in Unternehmen durch die Untersuchung von Kostenmessung und -management.