Indonesia: Jokowi Sidelines Democracy
In: Journal of democracy, Band 32, Heft 4, S. 72-86
ISSN: 1086-3214
In: Journal of democracy, Band 32, Heft 4, S. 72-86
ISSN: 1086-3214
Are Asian democracies deconsolidating, in line with world-wide trends? This article examines four consolidated democracies in Asia: Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, plus Indonesia, whose own consolidation has been problematic. Using public opinion data, we evaluate two competing models—civic culture and political economy—to test whether there is a decline in democratic support. We report that the political economy model is more persuasive. Declines in democratic support are associated more consistently with democratic performance and education. Because education levels are tending to rise, and political socialization continues into adulthood, we conclude that there should be little fear that Asian democracies will deconsolidate.
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In voting behavior studies, the effect of religion on partisan choice relative to psychological factors and political economy has not been conclusively determined. In Indonesian politics, religion has frequently been understood as a typology of Muslim religiosity, i.e. santri versus abangan, or orthodox versus heterodox Muslim. This conception does not significantly predict election outcomes. The effect of religious identity, i.e. Islam versus other religion, on voting is not discernable so far because it has not been systematically tested. The 2017 Jakarta gubernatorial election is a rare instance in which the contestants have different religious identities in an almost homogenous society. This setting is ideal. This essay reports the results of a test from public opinion surveys prior to and an exit poll on election day. The result verified that religion explains very significantly how the Muslim candidate won. Political economy and partisanship, however, save the incumbent from a big loss. These findings have more systematically revised the existing comparative and Indonesian literature on the relationship between religion and voting behavior.[Dalam studi perilaku memilih, perbandingan pengaruh agama, faktor psikologis, maupun ekonomi politik, terhadap pilihan partai atau calon dalam pemilihan umum belum konklusif. Dalam politik Indonesia, agama sering difahami dalam tipologi keberagamaan santri versus abangan, atau Muslim puritan versus Muslim sinkretis. Konsepsi agama ini tidak punya pengaruh signifikan terhadap perilaku memilih dalam pemilihan umum sejauh ini. Sementara itu pengaruh identitas agama, yakni Islam versus agama lainnya, terhadap perilaku memilih sejauh ini juga tidak banyak terlihat karena belum teruji secara sistematik. Pemilihan gubernur DKI Jakarta 2017 adalah contoh kasus langka di Indonesia di mana calon-calon gubernurnya punya identitas agama berbeda sementara pemilihnya hampir homogen dilihat dari identitas agamanya. Keadaan ini ideal untuk menguji pengaruh identitas agama terhadap perilaku memilih. Artikel ini merupakan laporan hasil uji perbandingan pengaruh identitas agama, faktor psikologis, dan ekonomi-politik pada perilaku memilih gubernur, dan bersandar pada data survei opini publik sebelum dan di hari pemilihan. Hasilnya membuktikan bahwa identitas agama sangat mempengaruhi bagimana calon gubernur beragama Islam menang dalam pemilihan tersebut. Namun demikian, pengaruh ekonomi-politik dan identitas kepartaian menolong petahana yang non-Muslim dari kekalahan telak. Temuan-temuan ini merevisi referensi studi politik perbandingan dan Indonesia terkait hubungan agama dan perilaku memilih.]
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In: Asian survey: a bimonthly review of contemporary Asian affairs, Band 60, Heft 6, S. 1029-1043
ISSN: 0004-4687
World Affairs Online
In: Asian survey, Band 60, Heft 6, S. 1029-1043
ISSN: 1533-838X
We present findings from eight nationally representative surveys conducted during the 2019 Indonesian presidential campaign, in which we measured voters' reported belief in prominent pieces of misinformation. Younger, better-educated, and wealthier voters were more likely to believe the misinformation. These results are true for stories about both the incumbent (Joko Widodo) and the challenger (Prabowo Subianto). These findings represent a significant departure from results in Western Europe and North America, where a surge in misinformation has disproportionately targeted older and less educated voters.
Sebuah kebijakan publik akan efektif jika publik mendukungnya. Hal yang sama berlaku dalam konteks wabah Covid-19. Sejauh ini belum ada studi tentang kebijakan pemerintah Indonesia, khususnya terkait Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar (PSBB), dan kepatuhan warga terhadapnya. Tulisan ini mengisi kekosongan tersebut dengan bertumpu pada hasil penelitian opini publik nasional tentang sikap dan perilaku publik terkait PSBB dan protokol kesehatan. Hasilnya adalah perilaku dan sikap pada kebijakan tersebut berhubungan dengan latar belakang perilaku politik, kepercayaan pada kemampuan pemerintah menangani Covid-19, status pekerjaan, pendapatan, pendidikan, agama, dan gender. PSBB tidak akan efektif karena jumlah warga yang harus bekerja di luar rumah sangat banyak. Sebaliknya, memberikan subsidi pada warga agar tidak bekerja selama pandemi tetapi tidak jelas kapan akan berakhir, tentu bukan kebijakan yang realistis. Untuk itu, kebijakan mengubah PSBB dengan kembali membolehkan warga bekerja seperti sebelum masa Covid-19 dan disertai protokol kesehatan yang ketat adalah solusi yang lebih realistis. Sosialisasi mendesaknya protokol kesehatan harus dilakukan lewat berbagai kelompok masyarakat dan lewat tokoh-tokoh berpengaruh karena mereka cenderung lebih didengar.
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In: Journal of experimental political science: JEPS, Band 8, Heft 3, S. 211-222
ISSN: 2052-2649
AbstractDespite the introduction of social restrictions designed to stem the spread of COVID-19, many Indonesians have continued to attend places of worship. This poses a major public health threat, as congregational prayer involves large numbers of worshippers gathering under conditions known to enable the spread of the virus. Using a nationally representative survey, we evaluated the efficacy of messages delivered from different authorities in encouraging Indonesians to worship at home. We find no consistent evidence that public health messages change Indonesians' attitudes toward communal prayer or their willingness to forgo communal prayer during the COVID-19 pandemic. Importantly, however, looking at well-defined subpopulations – non-Muslims and supporters of the president – we find suggestive evidence that messages were effective in increasing the likelihood of individuals to indicate a willingness to forgo communal prayer in the forthcoming week. Our results suggest that public health officials should eschew blanket messaging strategies in favor of more targeted approaches.
Once a fully free country according to Freedom House, Indonesia has declined to partly free in the last seven years, indicating that the largest Muslim democracy in the world is deconsolidating. The decrease of freedom in Indonesia is believed to be associated with intolerance toward religious minorities, specifically by Muslims toward non-Muslims. Previous studies found that Indonesians are in general intolerant. However, those studies ignore factors which have the potential to strengthen religio-polititical tolerance. My contribution is to fill this empty space by explaining the intolerance. The potential explanatory factors are political, economic, and security conditions, institutional engagement, political engagement, and democratic values. Based on a nationwide public opinion survey, this study reveals new findings about which factors are more crucial to strengthening religio-political tolerance. Muslim religiosity affects significantly and negatively religio-political tolerance. However, economic, political, and security conditions, institutional engagement, political engagement, democratic values, and Javanese ethnicity more significantly explain the tolerance. If these factors prevail over religion and religiosity, tolerance will improve.
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Indonesia is the world's third largest democracy (after India and the USA) and the only fully democratic Muslim democracy, yet it remains little known in the comparative politics literature. This book aspires to do for Indonesian political studies what The American Voter did for American political science. It contributes a major new case, the world's largest Muslim democracy, to the latest research in cross-national voting behavior, making the unique argument that Indonesian voters, like voters in many developing and developed democracies, are 'critical citizens' or critical democrats. The analysis is based on original opinion surveys conducted after every national-level democratic election in Indonesia from 1999 to the present by the respected Indonesian Survey Institute and Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting
Conceptualizing and measuring piety -- Islam and party politics -- Islam and the market -- Islam and the world -- Constructing our survey
World Affairs Online
In: Japanese journal of political science, Band 16, Heft 2, S. 210-226
ISSN: 1474-0060
AbstractHow democratic is contemporary Indonesia? While analysts differ, Indonesian citizens, when asked in systematic public opinion surveys conducted regularly by the authors since 1999, consistently express strong support for democratic principles and also believe that their country's democratic performance is high. Support for democratic performance is highly correlated with support for government performance, as measured by perceptions of the condition of the national economy and political system. At the same time, higher levels of education and income, in Indonesia as in other countries, have created a considerable number of critical citizens, that is, citizens who value democracy but are critical of its performance. On our evidence for Indonesia, it is members of this group who are the most motivated and best prepared to demand a higher level of democratic performance from their elected officials.
Hefner, in his book entitled Civil Islam, proposes Indonesia as a relevant case in the debate among students of Muslim society and democracy as to whether Islam is inimical to democracy. He argues that Indonesian Muslims are more likely to support a democratic political system because civil Islam, that is a set of beliefs within the Muslim community that supports the separation of religious and political authority, pluralism and tolerance of fellow (non-Muslim) citizens and their beliefs, is persistent. From a political culture approach to democracy, this culture is crucial for the emergence and consolidation of democracy. This book overstates the significance of civil Islam in the case of Indonesia, and cannot explain the fact that democracy is a rare phenomenon in the Muslim world, including in Indonesian history.DOI:10.15408/sdi.v8i2.692
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This article is a review of the writings of Adam Schwarz, titled Islam: Coming in from the Cold in his book, A Nation in Waiting, Indonesia in the 1990's. Adam Schwarz is a reporter Far Eastern Economic Review magazine published in Hong Kong. This book is the result of observations during which he served in Indonesia in the late 80s and early 90s, a period characterized much debate about Islam in Indonesia.Started writing this, Schwarz explained about the relationship Abdurrahman Wahid (Gus Dur) with the government. A few weeks after Gus Dur Tabligh Akbar held in Senayan East Parking Lot, he was "invited" Let. Colonel Prabowo, Suharto's son-president, to meet him. Reportedly, during the meeting, Prabowo warned that steps Gus Dur (with the Tabligh Akbar) has crossed the line. If he continues to play politics, said Prabowo, the first to be disturbed is president Suharto's re-election as president for the next term.DOI:10.15408/sdi.v2i1.847
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This article suggests the political dynamics that occur at the time of the conference the Partai Persatuan Pembangunan (PPP), which was held on 29 August to 2 September 1994.Many opinions that say that the congress of the United Development Party (PPP) that has its own strategic significance because the results will determine the 1997 election and then General Session, 1998. At this General Assembly will take place according to many in the national succession, including the change of state leaders, the president Republic of Indonesia. So many groups concerned with this third congress PPP: who is leading the party's control she would participate in such an important time of succession.DOI:10.15408/sdi.v1i3.853
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In: Taiwan journal of democracy, Band 9, Heft 1, S. 173-197
ISSN: 1815-7238