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"Over the past few decades, a fundamental shift in political campaign strategy has been afoot in U.S. elections: Political campaigns have been gradually shifting their attention away from swing voters toward their respective, partisan bases. Independents and weak partisans have been targeted with less frequency, and the emphasis in contemporary elections has been on strong partisans. This book documents this shift-away from persuasion toward base mobilization-in the context of U.S. presidential elections and explains that this phenomenon is likely linked to several developments, including advances in campaign technology and voter targeting capabilities as well as insights from behavioral social science focusing on voter mobilization. The analyses show the 2000 presidential election represents a watershed cycle that punctuated this shift. The book also explores the implications of the shift toward base mobilization and links these developments to growing turnout rates for strong partisans and attenuating participation among independents, or swing voters over time. The book concludes these patterns have contributed to heightened partisan polarization in the United States"--

Cover -- Half Title -- Endorsement Page -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Table of Contents -- Dedication and Acknowledgements -- List of figures -- List of tables -- Chapter 1 Dynamics of Challenger Quality: Introduction -- Chapter 2 Challenger Quality-Conceptualization and Measurement -- Chapter 3 Explaining Challenger Quality: Hypotheses and Methodology -- Chapter 4 Money and Challenger Quality -- Chapter 5 Candidate Quality and Campaign Communications Strategies -- Chapter 6 Movin' On Up: The Impact of State Legislative Term Limits on Candidate Quality in U.S. House Elections, 1972-2018 -- Chapter 7 States of Ambition: Aggregate Challenger Quality in the U.S. by State, 1972-2018 -- Chapter 8 Explaining the Decline in Challenger Quality, 1972-2018 -- Chapter 9 Implications: Challenger Quality, Incumbency Advantage, and Democracy in America -- Chapter 10 Conclusion -- References -- Appendix -- Index.

'Bases Loaded' documents the shift away from persuasion toward base mobilization in the context of US presidential elections. Panagapoulos explains that this phenomenon is likely linked to several developments, including advances in campaign technology and voter targeting capabilities as well as insights from behavioural social science focusing on voter mobilization. The analyses show the 2000 presidential election represents a watershed cycle that punctuated this shift. The text concludes that these patterns have contributed to heightened partisan polarization in the United States.

'Bases Loaded' documents the shift away from persuasion toward base mobilization in the context of US presidential elections. Panagapoulos explains that this phenomenon is likely linked to several developments, including advances in campaign technology and voter targeting capabilities as well as insights from behavioural social science focusing on voter mobilization. The analyses show the 2000 presidential election represents a watershed cycle that punctuated this shift. The text concludes that these patterns have contributed to heightened partisan polarization in the United States.

AbstractThis report examines accuracy and bias in national and state‐level preelection polls conducted during the 2020 U.S. general election cycle. Overall, national and statewide polls in 2020 were considerably less accurate than in 2016. In fact, there is evidence the final, national presidential preelection polls were less accurate than in any cycle since 1996. Polls across the board underestimated Republican support in the presidential, U.S. Senate, and gubernatorial races. The results show the pro‐Democratic biases reflected in the final 2020 preelection polls were systematic.

Photo identification (ID) laws are often passed on the premise that they will prevent voter fraud and/or reduce perceptions of electoral fraud. The impact of ID laws on perceptions of electoral fraud remains unsettled and is complicated by widespread confusion about current voting requirements. In the 2017 Virginia election, we fielded an experiment, with an advocacy organization, evaluating the effects of the organization's outreach campaign. We randomized which registered voters were mailed one of three informational postcards. After the election, we surveyed subjects about electoral integrity and their knowledge about election laws. We find that providing registrants with information on the state's photo ID requirements is associated with a reduction in perceptions of fraud and increased knowledge about voting requirements.

Photo identification (ID) laws are often passed on the premise that they will prevent voter fraud and/or reduce perceptions of electoral fraud. The impact of ID laws on perceptions of electoral fraud remains unsettled and is complicated by widespread confusion about current voting requirements. In the 2017 Virginia election, we fielded an experiment, with an advocacy organization, evaluating the effects of the organization's outreach campaign. We randomized which registered voters were mailed one of three informational postcards. After the election, we surveyed subjects about electoral integrity and their knowledge about election laws. We find that providing registrants with information on the state's photo ID requirements is associated with a reduction in perceptions of fraud and increased knowledge about voting requirements.

AbstractIn this article, we examine the impact of President Donald Trump's visits on the campaign trail in the November 2018 midterm elections. We find that President Trump's visits failed to either boost overall state‐level turnout or support for GOP U.S. Senate candidates in these elections. The results reinforce the notion that presidential capacity to influence voting behavior is limited, especially in an era of deep partisan polarization when partisan identity and other, more fundamental considerations shape vote choice and turnout decisions.

AbstractKey [1949. Southern Politics in State and Nation. New York: A.A. Knopf] observed voters tend to support local candidates at higher rates, a phenomenon he termed "friends-and-neighbors" voting. In a recent study, Panagopoulos et al. [2017. Political Behavior 39(4): 865–82] deployed a nonpartisan randomized field experiment to show that voters in the September 2014 primary election for state senate in Massachusetts were mobilized on the basis of shared geography. County ties and, to a lesser extent, hometown ties between voters and candidates have the capacity to drive voters to the polls. We partnered with a national party organization to conduct a similar, partisan experiment in the November 2014 general election for the Pennsylvania state senate. We find localism cues can stimulate voting in elections, including in neighboring communities that lie beyond the towns and counties in which the target candidate resided, at least among voters favorably disposed to a candidate and even when voters reside in the home county of the opponent.