Second order electoral rules and national party systems: The Duvergerian effects of European Parliament elections
In: European Union politics: EUP, Band 17, Heft 3, S. 366-386
ISSN: 1465-1165
5 Ergebnisse
Sortierung:
In: European Union politics: EUP, Band 17, Heft 3, S. 366-386
ISSN: 1465-1165
In: Public management: PM, Band 19, S. 163-164
ISSN: 0033-3611
In: American political science review, Band 7, Heft 2, S. 241-247
ISSN: 1537-5943
In: American political science review, Band 6, Heft 4, S. 586-595
ISSN: 1537-5943
Preelection polls for the 2015 UK General Election missed the final result by a considerable margin: underestimating the Conservative Party and overestimating Labour. Analyzing evidence for five theories of why the polls missed using British Election Study (BES) data, we find limited evidence for systematic vote intention misreporting, late swing, systematically different preferences among "don't knows," or differential turnout of parties' supporters. By comparing the BES face-to-face probability sample and BES Internet panel, we show that the online survey's polling error is primarily caused by undersampling nonvoters, then weighting respondents to represent the general population. Consequently, demographic groups with a low probability of voting are overweighted within the voter subsample. Finally, we show that this mechanism is likely partially responsible for the polls overestimating the Liberal Democrats in 2010, illustrating that this is a long-standing problem.
BASE