Suchergebnisse

En este trabajo se investiga cuáles son los principales factores determinantes que condicionan la probabilidad de que un país decida adoptar y mantener un sistema cambiario fijo de facto analizando 17 economías que forman parte de la Unión Europea. Como medida de robustez se consideran 3 alternativas de la variable objeto de estudio, al igual que se contrasta la sensibilidad de los resultados obtenidos ante diferentes procesos de formación de expectativas. A través de la metodología de algoritmos genéticos se examina un amplio conjunto de variables explicativas basadas en los modelos de primera, segunda, tercera y cuarta generación, añadiendo además variables de naturaleza política, de confianza, de expectativas e institucionales, con la finalidad de evaluar si mejora la capacidad explicativa de la estabilidad cambiaria. Entre los factores de mayor repercusión destaca claramente el grupo de las variables que miden la competitividad, tanto por su repetida presencia en los diferentes modelos como por su poder explicativo. Dentro de este grupo, muestra especial relevancia el tipo de cambio real, así como el índice de precios al consumo armonizado del país de referencia, que en nuestro caso se corresponde con la Zona Euro. Otras variables que destacan, pero en menor medida, son el agregado monetario M1, la paridad central, la confianza en las instituciones europeas, las expectativas de los agentes, la ideología parlamentaria y la libertad de los derechos políticos. ; In this work, a study is made on the main factors that can determine the possi-bility that a country decides to adopt and maintain a de facto fixed exchange rate system,by analysing the economies of 17 countries from the European Union. As a measure of robust-ness, three alternatives of study variable were considered, as well as contrasting the sensitivityof the results obtained using different forecasting models. Using this methodology of geneticalgorithms, a large group of explanatory variables is examined based on first, second, third,and fourth generation models. Added to these, were variables of a political nature, confidence,expectations, and institutional nature, with the aim of evaluating if it improves the explanatorycapacity of exchange rate stability. Among the higher impact factors, the group of variablesthat measure competiveness clearly stand out, due to their repeated presence in the diffe-rent models, as well as due to their predictive power. Within this group, true exchange rateshows special significance, as well the harmonised consumer price index of the country of refe-rence, which in our case is the Eurozone. Other variables highlighted but to a lesser extentare, the M1 monetary aggregate, central parity, the confidence in the European institutions,the expectations of the agents, parliamentary ideology, and the freedom of political rights

This paper attempts to identify implicit exchange rate regimes for currencies of new European Union (EU) countries vis-à-vis the euro. To that end, we apply three sequential procedures that consider the dynamics of exchange rates to data covering the period from 1999:01 to 2012:12. Our results would suggest that implicit bands have existed in many sub-periods for almost all currencies under study. This paper provides new empirical evidence that strengthens the hypothesis of that the implemented policies differ from those announced by the monetary authorities, identifying the existence of de facto fixed monetary systems along large number of sub-periods for different currencies.

respect to the German bund. Using panel data techniques, we examine the role of a wide set of potential drivers. To our knowledge, this paper presents one of the most exhaustive compilations of the variables used in the literature to study the behaviour of sovereign yield spreads and, in particular, to gauge the effect on these spreads of changes in market sentiment and risk aversion. We use a sample of both central and peripheral countries from January 1999 to December 2012 and assess whether there were significant changes after the outbreak of the euro area debt crisis. Our results suggest that the rise in sovereign risk in central countries can only be partially explained by the evolution of local macroeconomic variables in those countries. Besides, without exception, the marginal effects of sovereign spread drivers (specifically, the variables that measure global market sentiment) increased during the crisis compared to the pre-crisis period, especially in peripheral countries. Moreover, the increase in the significance of the banking level of indebtedness and foreign bank's claims in the public sector (mainly in peripheral countries) along with the crisis unfolding seems to highlight the interconnection between private and public debt and thus, between banking and sovereign crises.

We empirically investigate the determinants of EMU sovereign bond yield spreads with respect to the German bund. Using panel data techniques, we examine the role of a wide set of potential drivers. To our knowledge, this paper presents one of the most exhaustive compilations of the variables used in the literature to study the behaviour of sovereign yield spreads and, in particular, to gauge the effect on these spreads of changes in market sentiment and risk aversion. We use a sample of both central and peripheral countries from January 1999 to December 2012 and assess whether there were significant changes after the outbreak of the euro area debt crisis. Our results suggest that the rise in sovereign risk in central countries can only be partially explained by the evolution of local macroeconomic variables in those countries.

During the confinement due to the Covid-19 crisis, economies survived thanks to the available technology and changes of the production model. To study the vulnerability of economies against the challenges of the recovery, in this paper we study the role of some factors related to the development of productive sectors, the use of technology, and the structure of public finances. Using panel data estimations for the European Union, we identify some characteristics that would help economies to boost economic growth. We find that the employment in sectors with a high technological content is the variable that most drives output growth

During the confinement due to the Covid-19 crisis, economies survived thanks to the available technology and changes of the production model. To study the vulnerability of the economies against the challenges of the recovery, in this paper, we study the role of some factors related to the development of productive sectors, the use of technology, and the structure of public finances. Using panel data estimations, for the European Union, we identify some characteristics that would help economies to boost economic growth. We find that the employment in sectors with a high technological content is the variable that most drives output growth. ; Durante el confinamiento de la población debido a la crisis del Covid-19, las economías han sobrevivido gracias a la tecnología disponible y a cambios en el modelo productivo. Para estudiar la vulnerabilidad de las economías frente a los retos de la recuperación, en este trabajo, estudiamos el papel de algunos factores relacionados con el desarrollo de los sectores productivos, el uso de la tecnología y la estructura de las finanzas públicas. Haciendo uso de estimaciones de datos de panel, para la Unión Europea, identificamos algunas características que ayudarían a las economías a impulsar el crecimiento económico. Encontramos que el empleo en sectores con un alto contenido tecnológico es la variable que más impulsa el crecimiento de la producción