Nordafrika 2011: Revolutions- und Bewegungstheorien und die (Un-)Vorhersehbarkeit von Protest
In: Forschungsjournal Neue Soziale Bewegungen, Band 24, Heft 1, S. 7-18
Looking at the revolutionary protest movements in North Africa, one asks if these developments could have been foreseen with movement and revolution theories. Working with these theories, this article analyzes deprivation, values and political attitudes, mobilization networks and political opportunities. Roose takes into account available relevant data -- these, however, stay fragmentary. Looking at economical data, no worsening of the situation can be seen. Poll data for Egypt and -- with limitations -- for Morocco suggest that political discontent is pivotal. Regarding mobilization, it seems that widespread access to the internet and cell phones is important. Political and civil rights have been unchanged in recent years. The protests themselves, however, can be seen as an important opportunity, because protests in a country may act as models for others. They can question the stability of a system and help solve the time coordination problem. The compilation of information shows that a foresight of these protests had not been possible; the accumulated data, however, are valuable background material for categorizing the waves of protest. Adapted from the source document.