Science and Sovietology: bridging the methods gap in Soviet foreign policy studies
In: World politics: a quarterly journal of international relations, Band 40, Heft 2, S. 169-193
ISSN: 0043-8871
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In: World politics: a quarterly journal of international relations, Band 40, Heft 2, S. 169-193
ISSN: 0043-8871
World Affairs Online
In: International security, Band 12, Heft 3, S. 93-131
ISSN: 0162-2889
World Affairs Online
In: International security, Band 9, Heft 3, S. 89-108
ISSN: 0162-2889
World Affairs Online
In: International security, Band 9, Heft 1, S. 108-146
ISSN: 0162-2889
World Affairs Online
In: World politics: a quarterly journal of international relations, Band 30, Heft 3, S. 345-365
ISSN: 1086-3338
Decision makers in international crises seek to reconcile two values: on the one hand, avoiding the loss of prestige and credibility that capitulation would entail and, on the other, avoiding war. These values conflict with each other, in the sense that any policy designed to further one of them will jeopardize the other. Cognitive theory suggests that in ambiguous circumstances a decision maker will suppress uncomfortable value conflicts, conceptualizing his dilemma in such a way that the values appear to be consonant. President Kennedy's process of decision and rationalization in the Cuban missile crisis fits this pattern. He contended that compromise would allay the risk of war in the short run only at the cost of increasing it in the long run. Thus, he saw his policy of no compromise as furthering both the goal of maintaining U.S. prestige and credibility and the goal of avoiding war.
In: World politics: a quarterly journal of international relations, Band 30, Heft 3, S. 345-365
ISSN: 0043-8871
World Affairs Online
A collection of essays on military defence strategy, which considers historical applications of the "domino theory", the psychological dynamics of the US-Soviet relationship vis-a-vis Eurasian boundaries. It also examines whether the USSR actually infers a lack of resolve from American retreats
In: Review of international studies: RIS, Band 43, Heft 5, S. 962-986
ISSN: 1469-9044
Amidst calls for containing an assertive Russia, politicians and pundits have been debating whether Ukraine should serve as a 'buffer zone' between the Russian and Western spheres of influence. These debates provide an opportunity to revisit the long and varied history of major powers' efforts to manage buffer zones. We draw on this history to learn the conditions under which buffer zones succeed or fail to stabilise regions, how buffers are most successfully managed, and when alternative arrangements for borderlands work better.
World Affairs Online
In: Annual Review of Political Science, Band 18, S. 303-327
SSRN
In: The journal of conflict resolution: journal of the Peace Science Society (International), Band 57, Heft 5, S. 822-853
ISSN: 1552-8766
Elections constitute a fundamental element of postconflict peacebuilding efforts in the post-cold war era and are often held soon after conflicts end. Yet, the impact of early elections on postconflict stability is the subject of sharp debate. While some argue that early elections facilitate peace agreements, hasten democratization, and ensure postconflict stability, others suggest that they undermine genuine democracy and spark a renewal in fighting. In this study, we argue that holding elections soon after a civil war ends generally increases the likelihood of renewed fighting, but that favorable conditions, including decisive victories, demobilization, peacekeeping, power sharing, and strong political, administrative and judicial institutions, can mitigate this risk. We attempt to reconcile the extant qualitative debate on postconflict elections through a quantitative analysis of all civil wars ending in the post-World War II period. [Reprinted by permission of Sage Publications Inc., copyright holder.]
In: The journal of conflict resolution: journal of the Peace Science Society (International), Band 57, Heft 5, S. 822-853
ISSN: 0022-0027, 0731-4086
World Affairs Online
In: The journal of conflict resolution: journal of the Peace Science Society (International), Band 57, Heft 5, S. 822-853
ISSN: 1552-8766
Elections constitute a fundamental element of postconflict peacebuilding efforts in the post–cold war era and are often held soon after conflicts end. Yet, the impact of early elections on postconflict stability is the subject of sharp debate. While some argue that early elections facilitate peace agreements, hasten democratization, and ensure postconflict stability, others suggest that they undermine genuine democracy and spark a renewal in fighting. In this study, we argue that holding elections soon after a civil war ends generally increases the likelihood of renewed fighting, but that favorable conditions, including decisive victories, demobilization, peacekeeping, power sharing, and strong political, administrative and judicial institutions, can mitigate this risk. We attempt to reconcile the extant qualitative debate on postconflict elections through a quantitative analysis of all civil wars ending in the post–World War II period.
In: The journal of conflict resolution: journal of the Peace Science Society (International), Band 55, Heft 3, S. 469-492
ISSN: 1552-8766
In the post—cold war period, civil wars are increasingly likely to end with peace settlements brokered by international actors who press for early elections. However, elections held soon after wars end, when political institutions remain weak, are associated with an increased likelihood of a return to violence. International actors have a double-edged influence over election timing and the risk of war, often promoting precarious military stalemates and early elections but sometimes also working to prevent a return to war through peacekeeping, institution building, and powersharing. In this article, we develop and test quantitatively a model of the causes of early elections as a building block in evaluating the larger effect of election timing on the return to war.
In: The journal of conflict resolution: journal of the Peace Science Society (International), Band 55, Heft 3, S. 469-493
ISSN: 0022-0027, 0731-4086
In: The national interest, Heft 100, S. 58-65
ISSN: 0884-9382
World Affairs Online