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Facing the development challenge in Mozambique: an economywide perspective
In: Research report 126
Business cycles in developing countries: Are they different?
In: World development: the multi-disciplinary international journal devoted to the study and promotion of world development, Band 30, Heft 12, S. 2071-2088
ISSN: 0305-750X
World Affairs Online
Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?
In: World development: the multi-disciplinary international journal devoted to the study and promotion of world development, Band 30, Heft 12, S. 2071-2088
Aid and growth regressions
In: Journal of development economics, Band 64, Heft 2, S. 547-570
ISSN: 0304-3878
Aid Effectiveness Disputed
In: Journal of international development: the journal of the Development Studies Association, Band 12, Heft 3, S. 375-398
ISSN: 0954-1748
Agricultural Technology, Risk, and Gender: A CGE Analysis of Mozambique
In: World development: the multi-disciplinary international journal devoted to the study and promotion of world development, Band 28, Heft 7, S. 1307-1326
ISSN: 0305-750X
Agricultural Technology, Risk, and Gender: A CGE Analysis of Mozambique
In: World development: the multi-disciplinary international journal devoted to the study and promotion of world development, Band 28, Heft 7, S. 1307-1326
Aid effectiveness disputed
In: Journal of international development: the journal of the Development Studies Association, Band 12, Heft 3, S. 375-398
ISSN: 1099-1328
Trade liberalization and spatial inequality: A methodological innovation in Vietnamese perspective
In this paper we calibrate two static computable general equilibrium (CGE) models with respectively 16 and 5,999 representative households. Aggregated and disaggregated household categories are consistently embedded in a 2000 social accounting matrix for Vietnam, mapping on a one-to-one basis to each other. Distinct differences in poverty assessments emerge when the impact of trade liberalization is analyzed in the two models. This highlights the importance of modeling micro household behavior and related income and expenditure distributions endogenously within a static CGE model framework. Our simulations indicate that poverty will rise following a revenue-neutral lowering of trade taxes. This is interpreted as a worst case scenario, which suggests that government should be proactive in combining trade liberalization measures with a pro-poor fiscal response to avoid increasing poverty in the short to medium term. – poverty ; trade liberalization ; general equilibrium models ; Vietnam
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Financial liberalization, financial development and economic growth in LDCs
In: Journal of international development: the journal of the Development Studies Association, Band 15, Heft 2, S. 189-209
ISSN: 1099-1328
AbstractThe objective of this paper is to survey what is actually known about the finance–growth relationship based on theory and empirical work. We point out that traditional theoretical models linking financial development and economic growth do not pay sufficient attention to insights emerging from modern information economics. Markets with asymmetric information are not in general constrained Pareto efficient; and increased banking sector competition, following financial liberalization, will not necessarily induce efficient financial intermediation. Increased competition is likely to erode franchise values, which may, in turn, generate an unstable banking environment where gambling behaviour on the part of the banks is prevalent. Increased competition can also discourage relationship‐banking, and it disturbs what may actually be a constrained efficient mode of contracting in a dynamic setting characterized by asymmetric information. We argue that these problems are further aggravated by the massive task of building an appropriate institutional and regulatory framework designed to effectively curb imprudent bank behaviour. Turning to the empirical evidence, it is shown that the alledged first‐order effect whereby financial development causes growth is not adequately supported by econometric work. The empirical evidence on the finance–growth nexus does not yield any clear‐cut picture. By way of conclusion, we question whether financial development, in the sense of increased formal financial sector intermediation in a deregulated environment can be expected to act as 'engine of growth' in the development process; and we argue in favour of a more cautious approach to financial sector reform. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of International Development published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
On the choice of appropriate development strategy: Insights from CGE modelling of the Mozambican economy
This paper makes use of a 1997 computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyse three potential strategies that Mozambique can pursue unilaterally with a view to initiating a sustainable development process. They include (i) an agriculture-first strategy, (ii) an agricultural-development led industrialization (ADLI) strategy, and (iii) a primary-sector export-oriented strategy. The ADLI strategy dominates the other development strategies since important synergy effects in aggregate welfare arise from including key agro-industry sectors into the agriculture-first development strategy. Moreover, the ADLI strategy can be designed so it has a relatively strong impact on the welfare of the poorest poverty-stricken households, and still maintain the politically sensitive factorial distribution of income.
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World Affairs Online
From Monobank to Commercial Banking : Financial Sector Reforms in Vietnam
This study analyses the difficulties and problems encountered in transforming the Vietnamese financial sector from one subordinate to government objectives and goals to an autonomous sector guided by market forces and competitive pressures. Here, the history of financial sector liberalization is traced and close attention paid to the activities and autonomy of the State Bank of Vietnam, the institution responsible for the supervision and regulation of the financial sector in Vietnam. Overall, the authors argue that ensuring a timely, fair and transparent supervision and regulation of the financial sector is of central importance to financial sector development and stability. Liberalizing financial markets is not solely a question of limiting and/or restricting government influence but may in fact involve the opposite, the influence and power of supervisory and regulatory institutions in many cases needing to be strengthened.
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Public spending and poverty in Mozambique
Little is known about the extent to which public spending is targeted towards the poor in Mozambique. The objective of the present paper is to assess whether public expenditures on education and health, in particular, are successful at reaching the poorer segments of the Mozambican population. Standard non-behavioural benefit-incidence methodology is applied, combining individual client information from survey data with provincial-level data on the cost of service provision. Most of the public services we are able to measure turn are moderately progressive, although some of the instruments we could not measure are probably less equally distributed. In Mozambique it appears that regional and gender imbalances in health and education are more significant than income-based differences. Nevertheless, increased public expenditures on health and education—such as that related to the HIPC initiative—are likely to have significant poverty reducing effects.
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