In: SAIS review / the Johns Hopkins Foreign Policy Institute of the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS): a journal of international affairs, Band 14, Heft 1, S. 17-34
This paper summarises an official report to the Swedish government (and general public). The economic crisis in Sweden is explained by both system failures and specific policy mistakes. The system failures include distorted incentives and markets, and inappropriate and outdated institutions. The deep recession and extraordinary rise in unemployment started as a collision between inflationary wage development and attempts to pursue a hard-currency policy. The resulting loss of international competitiveness in the tradable sector was accompanied by increased real interest rates, collapsing real estate prices and a related financial crisis. Following the floating of the Swedish krona in November 1992, the main problem became a domestic demand collapse, which has been accentuated by a spectacular rise in the household saving rate. The report emphasizes that good policy advice is not enough; it is also necessary to analyse and reform not only to macroeconomic stability but also economic efficiency and growth. The proposed institutional reforms are designed to restore a highly competitive market system and to facilitate a responsible fiscal stabilisation programme. This would also enahnce the medium-run credibility for government policies and provide scope for a more expansionary policy in the short run.
The new classical revolution seems to have transformed macroeconomics into the theory of economic fluctuations. It is, in a sense, a return to the origins of macroeconomics as a discipline as fashioned by Hayek, Keynes and Lindahl. But the scope has shifted in the intervening five decades and more. It is this new scope - and the new tools that forge its expansion - that are surveyed and analysed in this volume.