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THIS PAPER DRAWS UPON THE EXISTING RESEARCH ON STRATEGIC ACTION AND CHOICES AND EXPLORES THEIR POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTION TO THE PREVENTION OF VIOLENCE. IT EXAMINES CHANGES IN THE INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT, OFFERS DEFINITIONS OF PREVENTIVE ACTION, AND DETAILS THE INSTRUMENTS OF PREVENTION. THE SITUATIONS IN IRAQ AND YUGOSLAVIA ARE USED AS ILLUSTRATIONS.

PREVENTIVE ACTION HAS BEEN RESURRECTED IN THE 1990S AS A RESULT OF THE HORRORS OF CIVIL WARS, ESPECIALLY IN BOSNIA AND RWANDA. POLICY MAKERS AND ACADEMICS HAVE REALIZED THAT POLITICAL CAPITAL INVESTED IN PREVENTIVE DIPLOMACY CAN HELP TO AVOID OR MINIMIZE THE HUMAN AND MATERIAL COSTS OF COLLECTIVE VIOLENCE. ON THE OTHER HAND THE EXPERIENCES OF THE YUGOSLAVIAN CRISIS IN 1989-92 SHOW THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY IS NOT ABLE TO EFFECTIVELY PREVENT HUMANITARIAN CRISES. INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS ARE TOO DEPENDENT ON EXTERNAL CONSTRAINTS, INCLUDING THE INTERESTS OF THEIR LEADING MEMBERS, AND THEIR DIVISION OF LABOR IS TOO PRIMITIVE TO PERMIT AN EARLY AND EFFECTIVE ACTION. IN ADDITION, THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN THE MEANS AND ENDS OF PREVENTIVE ACTION ARE NOT OFTEN FORMULATED IN STRATEGIC TERMS. THIS NOT ONLY LEADS TO ERRONEOUS POLICIES, BUY MAY EVEN ESCALATE RATHER THAN CONTROL VIOLENCE.

International conflicts are seldom settled for good, but rather, are transformed into new types of conflicts. Such conflict transformation can be an effective strategy of peace, provided that it does not involve the use of physical force & its outcome is a stable & equitable international order. The transformation process may concern actors, issues, & structures. Postwar Europe has been characterized by conflicts involving both ideologies & interest. An interesting aspect of the recent transformation of the European system has been its ability to dismantle ideological confrontations. The European system has been transformed by the spread of democratic procedures, the redefinition of property rights, & the entrenchment of market relations. As such, the ideological division of Europe has been largely overcome, & a civilizing process set in motion. In interstate relations, a peace relying on reciprocal adherence to rules & commitments is replacing balance-of-power politics. 19 References. AA

UNITED NATIONS RESOLUTIONS REFLECT PREVAILING POLITICAL OPINION AND HAVE GREAT POTENTIAL VALUE IF BASED ON ACTIVE POLITICAL PARTICIPATION BY MEMBERS AND ADEQUATE CONSULTATIONS AMONG THEM. OPPORTUNITIES FOR THIRD-PARTY MEDIATION ARE SMALL WHEN A REGIONAL POWER CENTER OR A GREAT POWER CAN CONTROL REGIONAL CONFLICT DYNAMICS. THUS, THIRD-PARTY INTERVENTION MAY BE NEEDED MOST IN CONFLICTS NOT CONTROLLED BY A GREAT POWER AND BEARING SIGNS OF ANARCHY AND DISORGANIZATION.

Collective violence, in its different manifestations, appears to be becoming more regionalised. Protests, violent conflicts, and terrorism cannot be meaningfully interpreted in the global framework, even though they are in part results of uneven economic development and of international power politics. Collective violence should be interpreted in the national context in which it occurs, and in the regional context to which violence tends increasingly to spread. Illustrated by developments in South Africa, the Middle East and Central America. (AM)

THE AUTHOR, RAINO VAYRYNEN, A PROFESSOR OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS FROM HELSINKI, CAUTIONS AGAINST TRYING TO CREATE ORDER OUT OF COMPLEX INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL RELATIONS BY CATAGORIZING THEM INTO ANY SPECIFIC THEORY OR SOCIALOGICAL APPROACH.

THIS PAPER DEFINES WHAT CONFIDENCE IS IN THE CONTEXT OF DISARMAMENT TALKS. THE AUTHOR CLAIMS IT IS AN INTERMEDIARY PHASE IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS DESIGNED TO DETERMINE PREDICTABILITY, AND REASSURANCE. THEN CONSIDERS THE BEST FORMS OF CONFIDENCE-BUILDING, HOW IT IS BEING USED AT THE STOCKHOLM CONFERENCE, HOW IT IS USED IN THE NEGOTIATION STRATEGIES OF THE MAJOR POWERS, AND WHAT THE FUTURE IS FOR CONFIDENCEBUILDING NEGOTIATIONS.

COMMON SECURITY POLICY AS OUTLINED BY THE ICDSI IS DESCRIBED HERE AS A FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE PRINCIPLES AND PRACTICES OF THE UN. THE ESSENCE OF THE CONCEPT OF COMMON SECURITY IS THE CREATION OF POSITIVE AND IRREVERSIBLE PROCESSES OF CO-OPERATION FOR COMMON SURVIVAL. CREATION OF COMMON SECURITY IN EUROPE MEANS JOINT EFFORTS IN THE PROCESS OF EUROPEANIZATION IN A WAY THAT WILL NOT THREATEN BALANCE OF POWER AND NATO ALLIANCE WITH THE US.

THIS SECTION DESCRIBES THE NO FIRST USE STATEMENTS MADE BY THE SOVIET UNION AND CHINA, AND COMPARES THEM TO THE MORE CONDITIONAL STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE US AND THE UK. THE US MADE ITS NO FIRST USE PLEDGE IN THE CONTEXT OF AN ANNOUNCEMENT THAT IT WOULD NOT USE WEAPONS AGAINST ANY NON-NUCLEAR WEAPON STATE PARTY TO THE NONPROLIFERATION TREATY. FRANCE HAS ALSO MADE IT CLEAR THAT A NO-USE GUARANTEE DOES NOT APPLY IN THE CASE OF AN ACT OF AGGRESSION.

THIS SECTION DISCUSSES THE NON-CONTROVERSIAL NATURE OF THE POLITICAL IDEA OF A COMMON SECURITY AMONG NATIONS. THE IDEA DECLARES THAT NATIONS MUST UNDERSTAND THAT THE MAINTENANCE OF WORLD PEACE MUST BE GIVEN A HIGHER PRIORITY THAN THE ASSERTION OF IDEOLOGICAL OR POLITICAL POSITIONS. PROPONENTS OF COMMON SECURITY ARE LOOKING FOR A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN POLITICAL REALISM AND POLITICAL IDEALISM. COMMON SECURITY WILL NEED A DUAL STRATEGY OF WAYS TO REGULATE POLITICAL CONFLICTS AND ARMS CONTROL.