Introduction, Keynes's Own IS-LM Approach -- Prologue to Keynes's IS-LM, 1930 to 1932 -- The Advent of Keynes's IS-LM, 1933 -- "The Missing Link": Keynes's Own Lecture Notes, December 4, 1933, Impact and Implications -- Reconstructing Keynes's IS-LM Approach, 1931 to 1937 -- Keynes's Equations and Early Post-General Theory IS-LM Models -- The Legacy of December 1933: Re-Interpreting Mr Keynes.
Intro -- Foreword -- Introduction -- Contents -- List of Participants -- Part I Guggenheim Prize Lecture -- Unfulfilled Expectations: One Economist's History -- 1 What Did You and I Expect? -- 2 M.I.T. and Miguel Sidrauski -- 3 Rational Expectations -- 4 Dynamics and Complexity -- 5 Two Sorts of Expectations -- 6 Boundedly Rational Expectations -- 7 Hindsight: Intellectual Odyssey or Wild Goose Chase? -- References -- Part II Expectations and Economic Thought: Classics and Moderns -- Expectations and Its Variants: The Nuanced Role of Expectations in Classical Economics -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Expectational Fallacies -- 2.1 Expectations Regarding the Beneficial Nature of Competitive Institutions -- 2.2 Moral Expectations -- 2.3 A Note on the Dynamic Aspect of Expectations -- 3 Expectations and Anticipations in Smith's Narrative -- 4 Conclusions -- References -- Expectations, Conjectures and Beliefs. The Legacy of Marshall, Kahn and Keynes -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Marshall -- 3 Kahn -- 4 Keynes -- 5 The Role of Expectations in Generating Market Instability -- 6 Observation-Based Expectations -- 7 Expectations as Dividing Issue -- 8 Some Concluding Remarks -- References -- Between Pigou and Keynes: Champernowne on Employment and Expectations -- 1 Sorting Out Cambridge Expectations -- 2 Labour Supply and Money-Wage Dynamics -- 3 Monetary Policy and the Trend of Real Wages -- 4 Keynes Versus Pigou on the Role of Expectations -- 5 The Champernowne Puzzle -- References -- Keynes and Friedman on Expectations Mismatches During the Great Depression -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Friedman and the Case for Purely Monetary Disorders -- 2.1 Friedman's Narrative of the Great Depression -- 2.2 Expectations and Friedman's Rationale for the Great Depression -- 3 Keynes and the Case for Self-feeding Real Disorders.
"Real Business Cycle (RBC) Theory holds that random fluctuations in productivity are what causes the business cycle. Economists have come up with different models over the years which attempt to explain patterns in real business cycles, though the two which dominate proceedings are Kydland & Prescott's and Long & Plosser's models. The purpose of this book is to describe the intellectual process by which RBC models developed. The approach taken focuses on the core elements in the development of RBC models: (i) building blocks, (ii) catalysts, and (iii) meta-syntheses. This is done by detailed examination of all available unpublished variorum drafts of the key papers in the RBC story, so as to determine the origins of the ideas. The analysis of the process their discovery is then set out followed by explanations of the evolution and dissemination of the models, from first generation papers through full blown research programs. This is supplemented by interviews and correspondence with the individuals who were at the center of the development of RBC models, such as Kydland, Prescott, Long, Plosser, King, Lucas and Barro, among others. This book gets stright to the heart of the debates surrounding RBC models and as such contributes to a real assessment of their impact on modern macroeconomics. The volume, therefore, will interest all scholars looking at macroeconomics as well as historians of economic thought more generally"--
The purpose of this book is to describe the intellectual process by which Real Business Cycle models were developed. The approach taken focuses on the core elements in the development of RBC models: (i) building blocks, (ii) catalysts, and (iii) meta-syntheses. This is done by detailed examination of all available unpublished variorum drafts of the key papers in the RBC story, so as to determine the origins of the ideas. The analysis of the process their discovery is then set out followed by explanations of the evolution and dissemination of the models, from first generation papers through ful.
In Time Series Analysis and Adjustment the authors explain how the last four decades have brought dramatic changes in the way researchers analyze economic and financial data on behalf of economic and financial institutions and to provide statistics. An understanding of time series and the application and knowledge of related time series adjustment procedures is essential in areas such as risk management, business cycle analysis, and forecasting. The case studies in this book demonstrate that time series adjustment methods can be efficaciously applied and utilized, for both analysis and forecas.
This book combines historical and policy-oriented perspectives on the relevance of the Keynesian approach for economic theory, policy, and crisis analysis. The first part focuses on historical, theoretical, and methodological issues, and puts them in context with current developments. The second part focuses on the application of the Keynesian approach to modeling the economy, policy-making, and analyzing the ongoing crisis of the early 21st century. Bringing together contributions by leading macroeconomists such as Laidler, Cukierman, Colander and Boyer, and leading historians of economics su.
The volume is divided into three parts. Part one focuses on the models, men, and institutions involved in the development of the international macroeconomic model. In this section, the contributors examine the two monetary approaches to the balance of payments, as well as the relationship between long-term fluctuations in real exchange rates and inflation. Part two deals with the present state of the models by looking at Robert Mundell's theory of optimum currency areas (OCAs) and its relationship with key currencies. The chapters in this section also consider the impact of exchange rate variability on labor markets, as well as the interactions between theoretical developments and real-world behavior in the open economy macromodel. The third and last part of this volume provides a perspective on the future by looking at alternate models and institutional perspectives. Several contributors examine the relationship between asset prices, the real exchange rate, and unemployment in a small economy via what they call "a medium-run structuralist perspective". The future of institutional structures necessary to conduct international economic policy is the subject of the last chapters in part three of the volume