Bounded rationality theory, first developed by Herbert Simon (1947), is one of the first contributions to political science that explicitly focuses on decision processes and links cognitive science to research on decision processes at the level of both the individual and organisations. In line with more recent behavioral research, bounded rationality theory holds that public policy design should build on a realistic model of human behavior. The article analyzes the decision processes of Danish farmers against their responses to two versions of pesticide taxes implemented in Denmark, one in 1998 and the other in 2013. The two taxes achieved different success rates, although neither version achieved the pesticide reductions predicted by ex-ante models that built on the assumption of farmers as economically rational. We find that farmers' decision processes are consistent with features of bounded rationality, which may partially explain why the taxes were not as effective as predicted. However, with the second version of the tax adopted in 2013, the tax rate was doubled, which may have prompted farmers to give higher priority to economic objectives, possibly explaining why this recent version of the tax has been more successful.
AbstractA review is presented of the development over the years of the theory and practical use of Markov decision processes. To this purpose three periods are considered: before 1966, from 1966 till 1972, and after 1973. In all 3 periods there has been some contribution from the Netherlands, but particularly in the last period the research in the Netherlands on the subject has become a major stream. In this review particular emphasis is given to the work which has been done in the Netherlands, but the main line of the paper is determined by the development of the applicability of the available theory.
This study explores group participants' bias toward reducing conflict in consensus ver sus majority decision styles. Recent research suggests that diminished disagreement seriously jeopardizes the quality of groups' final decisions. This study tests for conflict expectation differences between consensus and majority processes. A semantic differ ential questionnaire examines expectation ratings for consensus versus majority pro cesses. Results suggest that the participants expect climate in consensus process to be more agreeable and friendly than in majority process. Among subjects, MSWs showed greater confidence in consensus than in majority, but MBAs did not. In practice, both professions frequently engage in consensus group decision making. Implications of the findings suggest that consensus process might be governed by an "agreement norm" that has the potential to restrict disagreements needed to reach sound decisions.
Purpose This paper aims to identify the expressions and flows of tacit knowledge in the unstructured decision process. In this type of process, decision-makers use not only the explicit knowledge but also aspects such as intuition, experience and other forms of tacit knowledge. The research developed a qualitative approach, through a study of multiple cases, and applied semi-structured interviews to ten executives. The analysis of data was carried out according to Flores (1994) interpretative analysis of text technique. Results indicated that there was the insertion of tacit knowledge in all unstructured decision-making routines. It was also detected the need to explicitly add the routine of evaluation to the Mintzberg et al.'s (1976) model as elements of tacit knowledge were also identified at this stage of the decision-making process.
Design/methodology/approach The research has taken a qualitative approach, through a study of multiple cases, applying semi-structured interviews to ten executives. The analysis of data was carried out according to technique for interpretative analysis of the text.
Findings Results indicated that there was tacit knowledge in all unstructured decision-making routines. Also detected was the need to explicitly add the routine of evaluation to the model.
Research limitations/implications It was unable to perform psychological studies to investigate the deepest cognitive and emotional aspects of managers, and it does not address, in depth, some issues that are related to tacit knowledge in decisions and that would be considered relevant.
Practical implications Although this research was unable to dissect the composition of tacit knowledge in unstructured decision process, a better understanding of the aspects that make up the knowledge in question has been developed, providing some decision-making guidelines to managers.
Social implications The language between communications actors can share decision-making rules to assist in the production and process of arguments necessary for the debate, evaluation and attribution of institutionally recurrent decisions.
Originality/value The original contribution is present in a detailed description of the expressions of flows of tacit knowledge in unstructured decision-making processes, based on the model of Mintzberg et al. (1976). From the influence of tacit knowledge, it was found that the model in question needs to consider the relevance of the evaluation phase, as a stage equivalent to the other described by Mintzberg et al. (1976). These aspects have been better explained in the introduction and conclusion. Participant observation was not possible because the decision had already been taken by the informant at the moment of the interviews.
The human performance characteristics of pitching and batting within the context of baseball game situations are examined to determine their influence on the batter' decision to swing or not at a pitched ball. Signal detection theory techniques are used on generated data to show how the probability of the batter swinging at a "strike" and leaving a "ball" could be optimized. Applications of this approach to game situations and areas for future research are discussed.
