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One of the fastest growing areas in empirical finance, and also one of the least rigorously analyzed, especially from a financial econometrics perspective, is the econometric analysis of financial derivatives, which are typically complicated and difficult to analyze. The purpose of this special issue of the journal on "Econometric Analysis of Financial Derivatives" is to highlight several areas of research by leading academics in which novel econometric, financial econometric, mathematical finance and empirical finance methods have contributed significantly to the econometric analysis of financial derivatives, including market-based estimation of stochastic volatility models, the fine structure of equity-index option dynamics, leverage and feedback effects in multifactor Wishart stochastic volatility for option pricing, option pricing with non-Gaussian scaling and infinite-state switching volatility, stock return and cash flow predictability: the role of volatility risk, the long and the short of the risk-return trade-off, What's beneath the surface? option pricing with multifrequency latent states, bootstrap score tests for fractional integration in heteroskedastic ARFIMA models, with an application to price dynamics in commodity spot and futures markets, a stochastic dominance approach to financial risk management strategies, empirical evidence on the importance of aggregation, asymmetry, and jumps for volatility prediction, non-linear dynamic model of the variance risk premium, pricing with finite dimensional dependence, quanto option pricing in the presence of fat tails and asymmetric dependence, smile from the past: a general option pricing framework with multiple volatility and leverage components, COMFORT: A common market factor non-Gaussian returns model, divided governments and futures prices, and model-based pricing for financial derivatives.

One of the fastest growing areas in empirical finance, and also one of the least rigorously analyzed, especially from a financial econometrics perspective, is the econometric analysis of financial derivatives, which are typically complicated and difficult to analyze. The purpose of this special issue of the journal on "Econometric Analysis of Financial Derivatives" is to highlight several areas of research by leading academics in which novel econometric, financial econometric, mathematical finance and empirical finance methods have contributed significantly to the econometric analysis of financial derivatives, including market-based estimation of stochastic volatility models, the fine structure of equity-index option dynamics, leverage and feedback effects in multifactor Wishart stochastic volatility for option pricing, option pricing with non-Gaussian scaling and infinite-state switching volatility, stock return and cash flow predictability: the role of volatility risk, the long and the short of the risk-return trade-off, What's beneath the surface? option pricing with multifrequency latent states, bootstrap score tests for fractional integration in heteroskedastic ARFIMA models, with an application to price dynamics in commodity spot and futures markets, a stochastic dominance approach to financial risk management strategies, empirical evidence on the importance of aggregation, asymmetry, and jumps for volatility prediction, non-linear dynamic model of the variance risk premium, pricing with finite dimensional dependence, quanto option pricing in the presence of fat tails and asymmetric dependence, smile from the past: a general option pricing framework with multiple volatility and leverage components, COMFORT: A common market factor non-Gaussian returns model, divided governments and futures prices, and model-based pricing for financial derivatives

__Abstract__ One of the fastest growing areas in empirical finance, and also one of the least rigorously analyzed, especially from a financial econometrics perspective, is the econometric analysis of financial derivatives, which are typically complicated and difficult to analyze. The purpose of this special issue of the journal on "Econometric Analysis of Financial Derivatives" is to highlight several areas of research by leading academics in which novel econometric, financial econometric, mathematical finance and empirical finance methods have contributed significantly to the econometric analysis of financial derivatives, including market-based estimation of stochastic volatility models, the fine structure of equity-index option dynamics, leverage and feedback effects in multifactor Wishart stochastic volatility for option pricing, option pricing with non-Gaussian scaling and infinite-state switching volatility, stock return and cash flow predictability: the role of volatility risk, the long and the short of the risk-return trade-off, What's beneath the surface? option pricing with multifrequency latent states, bootstrap score tests for fractional integration in heteroskedastic ARFIMA models, with an application to price dynamics in commodity spot and futures markets, a stochastic dominance approach to financial risk management strategies, empirical evidence on the importance of aggregation, asymmetry, and jumps for volatility prediction, non-linear dynamic model of the variance risk premium, pricing with finite dimensional dependence, quanto option pricing in the presence of fat tails and asymmetric dependence, smile from the past: a general option pricing framework with multiple volatility and leverage components, COMFORT: A common market factor non-Gaussian returns model, divided governments and futures prices, and model-based pricing for financial derivatives.

This paper is an econometric study of the Indonesian economy. Our intention is to evaluate the interactions within the Indonesian economy, to forecast the selected economic variables under given assumptions, and to measure the effects of various policies. This is to be achieved through an cconometric analysis which uses the available statistics and which provides an analytical framework for the present national income statistics.

Many countries in the Caribbean have been grappling with persistent fiscal imbalances and rising debt levels. The average debt to GDP ratio in the Caribbean in 2017 was 76.6 percent, higher than the negative debt-growth threshold of 60 percent of GDP. Also, the average fiscal deficit as a percent of GDP was 2.8 percent, but with significant heterogeneity across countries ranging from 0.5 percent to 11 percent. Using the inter-temporal budget constraint framework and various panel data econometric estimators, this article examines the issue of fiscal sustainability for a group of 10 Caribbean countries over the period 1991-2017. The evidence from panel co-integration models of government revenue and expenditure shows that past fiscal behavior is 'weakly' sustainable. The 'weak sustainability' finding is reinforced by evidence from an extended fiscal reaction function which showed that the primary balance improves by about 0.02 for every 1 percentage point increase in the debt ratio.

Improving fiscal performance by reducing budget deficits has for long been at the heart of many governments in developing countries. Budget deficit in all cases whether monetized or not, tends to generate inflationary pressures triggering uncertain crisis in an economic system. Majority of the developing nations, Kenya inclusive have had a dismal performance by attracting negative budget balances over the years. To contain fiscal vulnerabilities, there is need to understand factors behind fiscal performance in Kenya. The objectives of this study are to establish the trends and extent to which these factors determine fiscal performance in Kenya. The study employed unrestricted Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model in estimating how macro-economic, political and institutional factors affect fiscal balance using longitudinal data collected, consolidated and analysed for the period 1963 to 2013. In the short run, both the first and the second lags of fiscal balance, Treasury bill, Tax revenue and inflation significantly influenced fiscal balance. On the other hand, only the first lags of real gross domestic product per capita growth rate, the first differences of the Total Debt service and the Gross Government Investment affected fiscal balance significantly whereas only the second lags of the first differences of both the current account and the ratio of broad money to GDP were found to significantly determine fiscal balance. The study suggests therefore that the government should intervene through refocusing on the existing fiscal policies to mitigate the anticipated future problems likely to be associated with the existence of unchecked behaviors of these determinants. Finally, the government and the relevant agencies need to consider adjusting Treasury bill rates downwards to increase fiscal balance. As well, the government should be able to encourage internal investment by the local and encourage internal borrowing at affordable interest rates. This may ultimately spur economic growth through varied sectors of the ...

Sunflower production has fluctuated widely over the past 20 years because of variations in yield and the number of hectares seeded each year. This has resulted in uncertainity of availability of supply to the processing industry, fluctuating income levels to producers and hesitancy in developing effective Government programs. In this thesis the problem of variation in the supply of sunflower seed in Manitoba was analyzed by attempting to identify the factors which determine the allocation of the land to the crop. The objectives of the study were to explain the variation in aggregate sunflower seed supply and to predict the seeded hectarage of sunflowers in response to the factors identified as deterministic. These were accomplished by formulating and estimating suitable econometric models to measure producers' response. The "expected" gross receipts relations among crops were deterministic in the allocation of resources among the alternative crops. This 'prima facie' economic rational however, was not the most important criteria identified by the quantitative results of the models. From the results it was determined that the quantity of land seeded in the previous time period was the most influential factor. The author interpreted this relationship in terms of the psychological reaction in total to the broad management successes or failures in the previous time period. In conclusion, it was stated that the institutional affect must be incorporated into the economic relationships if actual on-farm criteria are to be used to measure producers' responses.

Sri Lanka aims to transform its tourism sector into one of the largest foreign exchange earners in 2016 by attracting 2.5 million high spending tourists. Tourism was ranked as the fifth largest source of foreign exchange earnings in 2012, and third largest in 2013 contributing 5.2 percent to total foreign earnings of the country. Further to this, the Sri Lankan government also identified tourism as a major hub of the countrys economy. Given the multi-dimensional impact the sector has on the countrys economy, it has to be examined systematically. This paper develops an econometric model based on the Cobb-Douglas function to analyze the relation between foreign exchange earnings, tourist arrivals, tourist prices, and tourist spending and direct employment in tourism. These variables of tourism are estimated utilizing model parameters such as R-Studio based on data from the sample period from 2002 to 2013. The formula presented in this study can be used by policy makers to calculate future foreign exchange earnings, employment, arrivals and prices related to tourism in Sri Lanka.

SUMMARYThis paper is a study of inflation in Portugal during the years 1953‐1980, a period marked by political revolution and the start of the country's modern economic development. The analysis is conducted within the context of the monetarist‐structuralist debate and employs, as explanatory variables, changes in expected prices, money, permanent income, exchange rates, and a vector of structural factors. Ordinary least squares and first‐ and second‐order autoregressive models, estimated by means of BEACH and MCKINNON'S full maximum likelihood technique, are the empirical methods used to investigate the sources of this inflation. In addition to the usual hypotheses, the question of economies of scale in money‐holding and the general equilibrium notion of a direct and proportional relationship between changes in money and prices are tested. The empirical results demonstrate that, despite political upheaval and government intervention in the market, neoclassical theory provides a reliable explanation of inflation in Portugal during the period considered.