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Studies of second-order elections using aggregate data have predominantly focused on examining the extent to which European parliament elections and regional elections are dominated by the national, first-order arena, and paid scarce attention to the analysis of municipal elections. In addition the study of second-order elections is dominated by looking at the impact of first-order factors whilst ignoring the impact of arena-specific factors. This article addresses these shortcomings by analyzing the impact of national and local factors on the performance of national parties in the Dutch municipal elections of 2010. Our analysis shows that there are significant effects of local factors. Most parties lose votes when having been in local government and in some cases as well when having in addition lost an alderman as a result of a political crisis. Parties also lose vote share as a result of the entrance of new national and local parties in a local election, with the effect of new national entrants being larger than that of new local entrants. Our analysis corroborates earlier findings that point to a dominance of national factors, while at the same time showing that it is vital to include local, arena specific factors in order to get to a better estimation of the second-orderness of non-national elections. We discuss our results with respect to the recurring debate about the nationalisation of the Dutch municipal elections. Adapted from the source document.

Questions re whether politicians make deductions re the formal pol'al power constellation on the nat'l level from the approach or results of municipal elections are raised. Data from the elections in Belgium over the past 100 yrs are examined in this context. The elections of 1921, 1926, 1938, & 1958 had no influence on the nat'l power constellation. Since WWI not a single municipal election has led to changes within the nat'l gov. It is traditional in Belgian pol that the nat'l opposition, when the results of municipal elections are in its favor & prejudicial to the party in office (as in 1946, 1952, & 1964), tries to question the legitimacy of the gov by way of motions & appeals in parliament. Gov's have never given in to these attempts. The elections of 1857, 1884, & 1932 show an element of power in the dissolution of the then gov's. The gov'al crisis of 1884, however, can only be explained through the constitutional position of King Leopold II. The municipal elections of 1932 anticipated the legislative elections of that yr & served as an indicator of the electoral condition. But in view of the diff between nat'l & local positions, it was an unreliable indicator. Modified HA.

An analysis of the Belgium elections of 2007, stating that winning or losing has more to do with the year of comparison than the actual numbers and percentages. The elections for Chamber and Senate were kept separate from regional elections (2006 city council and county council; 2004 European and regional elections). An analysis too of the somewhat peculiar subsequent follow-up on the elections, with an unprecedented long formation-period, and equally unprecedented disputes between Flemish and French-speaking Belgians. Tables, References. O. van Zijl

A study of the relation between the nature of municipal elections in Belgium & the degree of Ur'ization of municipalities. 5 categories of electoral patterns are discerned: elections without competition; totally local; predominantly local; mixed; predominantly nat'l. Operationalizations of Ur'ization in Belgium from previous res are used. A positive r is found between growing Ur'ization & a shift from local to predominantly nat'l electoral pattern. This does not mean that the predominantly nat'l electoral pattern is found exclusively in the highest category of Ur'ization, nor that the exclusively local electoral figure & elections without competition occur only in Ru regions. But it is a fact that the gravity center of the more nat'l electoral patterns lies in the Ur'ized municipalities & towns, whereas the gravity center of local electoral patterns lies in Ru municipalities. Findings support the hyp of the "tenuous zone," formulated by S. Groenman (see SA A1165). 2 Graphs, 1 Table. Modified HA.

A series of 11 polls on samples of the Belgian electorate was held between the elections of Mar, 1968, & Nov, 1971. 2 questions were asked, one on past voting behavior & one on voting intentions. Although each survey was held on a completely renewed sample, the most striking result is the stability of the party preference of the Belgian voter. Little relationship is found between pol'al events & changes in voting intentions. On the basis of the results the hyp is formulated that, in periods without crises, the majority of electors are influenced by a global pol'al atmosphere rather than by separate events. Perceptible changes in party preference only occur after a series of "coherent" events, of which the effect is cumulative. A secondary result of the analysis is the description of some systematic patterns of switching in party preference. AA.

The question is explored whether municipal elections can be compared to nat'l parliamentary elections, & shifts in party-choice in Belgium in the municipal elections of 1964 & the parliamentary elections of 1965 are compared. The methodology of this study is described. Shifts of the electoral bodies in the Flemish, the Walloon & the Brussels cantons (counties) were controlled individually. These shifts were then specified according to the canton's degree of Ur'ization. It appeared that some notable party-shifts had been realized during the short period between the municipal elections of 1964 & the legislative elections of 1965. In general, a certain polarization took place, due to a centrifugal vote shift to the left. The direction of vote shifts in the municipal elections of 1964 was affirmed at the legislative elections of 1965, & was accentuated from some parties, eg, the CVP & the PVV. The size & pattern of these shifts was not the same everywhere; it differed according to linguistic region & degree of Ur'ization. The level of oscillations grew higher as the degree of Ur'ization decreased. The largest shifts took place in the Walloon cantons. The lowest oscillations were noted in the Flemish & Brussels cantons; ie, the voting behavior of the big agglomerations during the municipal elections of 1964 were the closest to the nat'l electoral pattern. It is noted that the limitations of the study do not allow generalization of conclusions. The short period between the 2 elections compared was itself an exceptional situation which may have influenced the results. 7 Tables. Modified HA.

Together with the city council elections, the citizens of Antwerp elected on 8 October 2006 for the second time their district councils. This new decentralized political level is primarily initiated to restore the confidence of the citizens in the city (and district) government(s). By analyzing the results of the city & the district elections we try to find indications whether citizens feel closer to their new district governments or not. Firstly district elections resulted definitely not in less blank votes. Secondly, the number of list votes is higher on the district elections than on the city elections, while we would have expected a higher number of preferential votes. Thirdly, we see that the differences between the electoral results of the city elections & the district elections are becoming more pronounced. Although this last result seems to support the legitimacy of the decentralized district they merely reflect changes in the logic of the city elections. Mainly as a result of media coverage the city elections were direct elections of the mayor. Therefore voters used the district elections to vote for their preferred political party. This was not always possible at city level, because some parties did not have an eligible candidate for mayor. Generally spoken, we can conclude that the district elections do not give much proof of a closer connection between the citizens & the city government. Tables, Appendixes. Adapted from the source document.

In national elections the results tend to become more 'nationalized': a homogeneous party offer all over the territory, less variation in the results per constituency & more homogeneous electoral swings. This article investigates whether this nationalization can also be witnessed at local elections. It focuses on two indicators: the party offer & the voting behavior. The party offer is the presence of the national parties on the local ballot paper, while the voting behavior looks at patterns of homogeneity across the municipalities. The answer to the question of nationalization is mixed. The Flemish & Walloon local elections display the same long-term trend as the national elections, but they keep their own local character. The heterogeneity of the local party offer clearly demonstrates the local specificity of the local elections, & consequently the voting behavior also differs from the voting behavior at national elections. We also find that the local elections in Wallonia are less nationalized than in Flanders. Although the local character of the local elections remains important, the newer parties -- Ecolo & Groen! -- show until 2000 a clear trend towards nationalization. Especially the extreme right Vlaams Belang shows positive scores on all indicators of nationalization since its first local appearance in 1982. Tables, Figures. Adapted from the source document.

Campaign propaganda (with other variables) provides a proper content to the elections. An analysis is made of its use at the General Elections of Mar 31, 1968. In 1967, Belgian PO was not focused on linguistic, cultural & nat'lity problems. However, at the General Elections of Mar 1968 3 out of the 5 main issues dealt with these problems. Besides the issue of federalization of the pol'al system, the linguistic & org'al issue of Brussels & the relocation of the French section of the Catholic U of Louvain, one finds only full employment & inflation as major issues in the campaign. This issue-debate does not put opposition & gov'al parties one against another, but places the 6 main parties in a complex cross-cutting & the electors in a strong cross-pressure field. This is still complicated by the increase of personal propaganda. AA.

UNTIL 1971, THE BELGIAN SOCIALIST PARTY (BSP) WAS THE ONLY POLITICAL PARTY THAT CLOSELY & SYSTEMATICALLY INVOLVED ITS MEMBERS IN THE DESIGNATION OF SOCIALIST CANDIDATES FOR PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. THIS WAS ACHIEVED THROUGH A SYSTEM OF PREELECTIONS WITHIN THE PARTY ('POLLING'). THE TREND AWAY FROM 'POLLING' ALREADY PERCEPTIBLE IN 1971, HAS ASSERTED ITSELF IN 1974. ABOUT 56% OF THE ELECTED MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT OWE THEIR SEAT TO THEIR PLACE ON THE CANDIDATE- LIST AT THE 'POLL'. MORE THAN 40% OF THEM WERE DESIGNATED BY A PARTY-CONGRESS. THIS CHANGE IS NOTICEABLY TRUE IN FLANDERS. THE CHOICE BETWEEN A 'POLL' & A CONGRESS AS A DECISION-MAKING TECHNIQUE IS NOT RELEVANT AS TO THE RENEWAL OF PARLIAMENTARY GROUPS. THIS RENEWAL IS MAINLY DUE TO THE INTRODUCTION OF AN AGE-LIMIT (65) & OF A GAIN IN SEATS. A GROWING LACK OF INTEREST IN PARTY MEMBERS IS EVIDENT, IN THE COMPOSITION OF CANDIDATE-LISTS: PARTICIPATION HAS AGAIN SLIGHTLY DECLINED. 8 TABLES. MODIFIED HA.