For the last few years, the German foreign policy has been under constant temptations and substantial reconsideration. The key role in resolving the difficult economic and financial crises in the EU, the development of close economic ties with the Russian and other rising world economic powers, the decision to sustain in the UN Security Council in deciding to authorise the use of force in Libya, as well as the dominant attitude towards the crises in Greece and Kosovo clearly shows the wish of Germany to pursue a more independent foreign policy. In spite of all these efforts and its huge economic power, Germany has failed to become a global political power. Moreover, in order to protect and develop its trade interests Germany must remain within the frameworks of the EU and the NATO. For a long time, Germany has been one of Serbia's most important economic and political partners. Since it is realistic to expect that Germany will be more oriented towards developing its economic ties with the new world economic powers, the Western Balkans and Serbia will not be in the focus of its foreign and economic policies. Therefore, for Serbia, it will be useful to concentrate on the cooperation with the mighty German provinces that have their interests in developing this cooperation. In the future, the Kosovo issues will remain the main obstacle to it.
Autor se bavi odnosima Sjedinjenih Država i Venezuele zaključno sa aktuelnom predsedničkom krizom ne bi li odgovorio na pitanje kako i zašto je Venezuela postala problem za spoljnu politiku SAD koji zahteva pojačanu pažnju i radikalne mere. Analiza ovih odnosa u toku 20. veka pokazuje da su oni zasnovani na naftnoj međuzavisnosti dveju država. Kada je krajem veka višedecenijsko loše upravljanje naftnim bogatstvom u Venezueli izazvalo društvenu i ekonomsku krizu koja je dovela na vlast Huga Cháveza, spremnog da koristi prihode od nafte protiv interesa regionalne hegemonije SAD, ove su Venezuelu označile kao problem. Američki establišment je prema tom problemu nastupio oportunistički – naftna međuzavisnost je sprečavala da sukob eskalira sve dok aktuelna ekonomsko-politička kriza u Venezueli nakon Chávezove smrti nije dala Washingtonu priliku za konačni obračun sa režimom, po cenu privremenog prekida u trgovini naftom. Godinu i po dana od izbijanja predsednička kriza u Venezueli još nije razrešena, jer se čavistički režim održao, a SAD odustale od vojne intervencije, pa autor nastoji da ukaže na perspektive problema i mogućnosti njegovog prevazilaženja nakon što tekuća pandemija korona virusa bude obuzdana. ; The author deals with the United States and Venezuela relations up to the current presidential crisis, in order to answer how and why Venezuela became a problem for U.S. foreign policy which requires increased attention and radical measures. The analysis of these relations during the 20th century shows that they were based on oil interdependence of the two states. When a decades-long mismanagement of oil riches in Venezuela at the end of the century caused a social and economic crisis that brought to power Hugo Chávez, who was ready to use oil revenues against U.S. regional hegemonic interests, it marked Venezuela as a problem. American establishment treated the problem with opportunism – oil interdependence prevented the conflict from escalating until the current economic and political crisis in Venezuela after the death of Chávez gave Washington an opportunity for the final clash with the regime at the price of a temporary break in the oil trade. A year and a half after the presidential crisis in Venezuela erupted, it has not been resolved yet, for the chavista regime remained in place, while the U.S. gave up on military intervention. The author points to the perspectives of the problem and the possibilities of its overcoming once the current coronavirus pandemic gets contained.
Foreign investment fund in the world has multiplied several times in the last twodecades. However, growing trend of foreign investments fl ow has been broken by the recentfi nancial crisis in the world. Lower infl ow of foreign investments into the developingcountries has made the funding of their current accounts diffi cult, because it becamemore diffi cult for them to get loans in the international capital market. Most net importersof capital are net debtors in the international capital market, which made them increaseinvestment attractiveness for international investors. Thus they tried to decrease theirexposure to the loan market. Although foreign investments are desirable source of fundingthe current account defi cit, net infl ow of these funds generates negative balance in theincome account and puts pressure on the balance of payments of the country. World investmentfl ows have returned to the upward trend in 2013.This paper analyses foreign investments fl ow in the world, by groups of countries.The groups of countries, the subject analysis of this paper, are: Asia, Latin America,Africa, countries in transition and developed countries. The most signifi cant countriesthat are net exporters of capital in the world are the European Union and USA, while thebiggest importers are the growing Asian countries. Starting period for this analysis is1990, and ending period is 2013. Therefore, time series of the analysis covers economiccycles, i.e. rise from the nineties of the last century, then the period of global fi nancial andeconomical crisis that lasted all the ay until the end of 2012.
Harmonisation of the foreign policies of the Western Balkan states with the EU Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) within the Charter 31 of the pre-accession negotiations will be a significant obligation and challenge for most of them. Within this context, the author takes as a starting point the regular annual reports on the progress achieved by the states in the region. They show the degree of harmonisation of their foreign policies with this Union's mechanism (within four years in the 2011-2014 period). The author of the article particularly points to the real and substantial discrepancy between the normative framework of the EU CFSP and the specific activities taken by the Western Balkan states in the part concerning their position to the current crisis in Ukraine which, in a way, 'reflects' the geo-strategic interests of the 'West', on one hand, and those of the Russian Federation, on the other. At the same time, he points to the membership in the North Atlantic Alliance as a favourable framework for the acceleration of harmonisation of a country's foreign policy with the EU CFSP.
Прихвативши понуду краља Александра Обреновића да образује владу Србије, Стојан Новаковић је, јула 1895. године, планирао да се посвети побољшању међународног положаја Србије и положаја српског народа у Старој Србији и Македонији. Рачунајући на помоћ Русије и на тешкоће које је Турска имала у решавањима јерменског и критског питања, Новаковић је настојао да од Порте изнуди просветне и верске привилегије за Србе у Старој Србији и Македонији. Немогућност бржег решавања финансијских и уставних питања, нестабилна политичка ситуација у Краљевини и аустроугарски утицаји довели су до пада Новаковићеве владе крајем 1896. године. Свака из угла својих интереса, Француска и Велика Британија пажљиво су пратиле и анализирале ситуацију у Србији и Новаковићев рад. ; Stojan Novaković's government (July 1895 – December 1896) faced numerous inherited problems. As a scholar, a diplomat and a politician, a man led by moral and scientific principles and national interests, Stojan Novaković was aware that he was taking reigns of a country which was not politically, economically nor militarily ready to make major stopes towards national liberation and unification. That is why he was resorting to negotiations in situation where he knew there would be no major achievements. He was resisting much more when he knew it made sense, and in situations in which he could not swallow national pride and ignore facts. British and, especially, French envoys to Belgrade knew that the reason for instability of Novaković's government was not in his undisputed political and intellectual capacities, but in international circumstances, internal political struggles, and in unpredictable characters of former King Milan and his son Aleksandar. Britain, who was protecting its interests from Russia in the Easter Mediterranean by supporting Austria-Hungary, and France who, in cooperation with Russia, tried to prevent major conflicts in the Balkans, did not take an active role in directing the policy of Kingdom of Serbia. London, with its sometimes harsh warnings, and Paris, with its advices, were managing to draw Belgrade's attention to the fact that, in spite of Armenian and Cretan question, and in spite of Albanian atrocities in Old Serbia and Macedonia, Serbia should not take any aggressive measures. ; Научни скупови / Српска академија наука и уметности ; књ. 172. Председништво ; књ. 11
Sistem nacionalnih računa (SNR) nastao je i više puta unapreĎivan na meĎunarodnom nivou sa ciljem da omogući, izmeĎu ostalog, što potpuniju osnovu za analizu ekonomske politike. Polazeći od činjenice da će se u Srbiji nakon pribliţavanja standardima Evropske unije izraĎivati celokupan SNR, što trenutno nije slučaj, i od teze holandskog autora Bosa da će vlade sve manje koristiti SNR, u radu je ispitano koju ulogu nacionalni računi trenutno imaju u analizi ekonomske politike. Cilj istraţivanja je bio da se utvrde načini unapreĎenja upotrebe nacionalnih računa u Srbiji nakon njegove dopune, po oblastima upotrebe. Korišćenjem postojećih podataka, intervjua i kvantitativne analize, to jest ekonometrijske analize vremenskih serija, utvrĎeno je da se u tri oblasti upotrebe SNR, analizi putem indikatora, analizi tokova sredstava i makroekonometrijskom modeliranju, moţe ostvariti napredak već i sada, a posebno nakon dopune statističke produkcije. Posebno je vaţno da će biti moguće unaprediti makroekonometrijsko modeliranje u Srbiji, što je pokazano na primeru funkcije potrošnje. Komparativna analiza imovinskog efekta u Srbiji, Sloveniji, Češkoj i Holandiji pokazala je da varijabla stambene imovine nije značajna u funkciji potrošnje u Srbiji jer ne dominiraju hipoteke u svojinskoj strukturi stambenog fonda i nema finansijskih inovacija kao u razvijenim zemljama. SNR i njegovo stalno unapreĎivanje je potreban ali ne i dovoljan uslov dobre ekonomske politike. SNRje bio dovoljno razvijen za analizu za potrebe voĎenja ekonomske politike u sprečavanju neravnoteţa koje su u poslednjoj krizi imale udela, ali je tek analiza podataka nacionalnih računa eks-post omogućila unapreĎenje analize putem indikatora i standarda na osnovu kojih se mogu sprečiti neki budući mehurovi i neravnoteţe. ; The System of National Accounts (SNA) was designed and has been improved several times on the international level with the aim to provide the best possible complete basis for the economic policy analysis. Starting from the fact that after the transition to the standards of the European Union in Serbia the whole system of national accounts will be compiled, which currently is not the case, and from the thesis of the Dutch author Bos that SNA will be less used by the governments, in this dissertation the current role of the SNA in economic policy analysis has been analyzed. The aim of the research was to establish the ways of improvement in different areas of the use of SNA in Serbia, after its completion. By using the existing data, interview and quantitative i.e. econometric analysis of the time series, it has been concluded that in three areas of the use of SNA - indicator analysis, flow of funds analysis and macroeconometric modeling, the improvement is possible even now, and especially after the completion of statistical production. It is especially important that it will be possible to improve the macroeconomic modeling in Serbia, which has been shown on the example of consumption function. The comparative analysis of the wealth effect in Serbia, Slovenia, Czech Republic and the Netherlands has shown that the housing wealth variable is not significant in consumption function in Serbia, because mortgages are not dominant in the ownership structure of the housing wealth, and there are no financial innovations present, as it is the case in the developed countries. The SNA and its constant improvement is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a good economic policy. The SNA has been developed enough for the economic policy analysis to prevent imbalances which took part in the last crisis, but only the ex post analysis of the SNA data has enabled improvement of the indicator analysis and standards as the basis which may prevent future bubbles and imbalances.
Sistem nacionalnih računa (SNR) nastao je i više puta unapreĎivan na meĎunarodnom nivou sa ciljem da omogući, izmeĎu ostalog, što potpuniju osnovu za analizu ekonomske politike. Polazeći od činjenice da će se u Srbiji nakon pribliţavanja standardima Evropske unije izraĎivati celokupan SNR, što trenutno nije slučaj, i od teze holandskog autora Bosa da će vlade sve manje koristiti SNR, u radu je ispitano koju ulogu nacionalni računi trenutno imaju u analizi ekonomske politike. Cilj istraţivanja je bio da se utvrde načini unapreĎenja upotrebe nacionalnih računa u Srbiji nakon njegove dopune, po oblastima upotrebe. Korišćenjem postojećih podataka, intervjua i kvantitativne analize, to jest ekonometrijske analize vremenskih serija, utvrĎeno je da se u tri oblasti upotrebe SNR, analizi putem indikatora, analizi tokova sredstava i makroekonometrijskom modeliranju, moţe ostvariti napredak već i sada, a posebno nakon dopune statističke produkcije. Posebno je vaţno da će biti moguće unaprediti makroekonometrijsko modeliranje u Srbiji, što je pokazano na primeru funkcije potrošnje. Komparativna analiza imovinskog efekta u Srbiji, Sloveniji, Češkoj i Holandiji pokazala je da varijabla stambene imovine nije značajna u funkciji potrošnje u Srbiji jer ne dominiraju hipoteke u svojinskoj strukturi stambenog fonda i nema finansijskih inovacija kao u razvijenim zemljama. SNR i njegovo stalno unapreĎivanje je potreban ali ne i dovoljan uslov dobre ekonomske politike. SNRje bio dovoljno razvijen za analizu za potrebe voĎenja ekonomske politike u sprečavanju neravnoteţa koje su u poslednjoj krizi imale udela, ali je tek analiza podataka nacionalnih računa eks-post omogućila unapreĎenje analize putem indikatora i standarda na osnovu kojih se mogu sprečiti neki budući mehurovi i neravnoteţe. ; The System of National Accounts (SNA) was designed and has been improved several times on the international level with the aim to provide the best possible complete basis for the economic policy analysis. Starting from the fact that after the ...
Američka administracija zainteresovala se još pedesetih i šezdesetih godina prošlog veka za zemlje severne Afrike, kada su one stekle nezavisnost. Krajem Hladnog rata, američki zvaničnici pozvali su sve severnoafričke zemlje da se uključe u proces globalizacije svetske ekonomije, a posle događaja iz septembra 2001. godine u Sjedinjenim Američkim Državama, njihovi istraživački centri počeli su ozbiljnije da proučavaju islamske pokrete unutar i izvan islamskog sveta. Predmet istraživanja ove doktorske disertacije je određivanje američkih spoljno-političkih interesa i vrednosti prema islamskim pokretima na severu Afrike na početku XXI veka. Naučni cilj ovog istraživanja je naučno objašnjenje američke spoljne politike prema islamskim pokretima, posebno uzroka promene u američkoj spoljnoj politici i njen budući pravac kretanja prema političkim partijama i pokretima, nakon revolucija arapskog proleća i dolaska ovih islamskih partija na vlast u Tunisu, Egiptu i Libiji. To podrazumeva naučnu deskripciju i klasifikaciju značajnih islamskih pokreta na severu Afrike s naglaskom na njihov uticaj na američku spoljnu politiku. Društveni cilj ove teze je da ponudi naučno zasnovane osnove za razvoj odgovarajuće američke spoljne politike prema islamskim pokretima, uključujući i ulogu nezavisnih istraživačkih centara kao i sredstava informisanja u kreiranju američke spoljne politike. Najveću primenu u ovoj disertaciji imale su statistička i komparativna metoda, kao i analiza sadržaja dokumenata kao metoda prikupljanja podataka. Rezultat, odnosno naučni doprinos doktorske disertacije zasniva se na dva bitna činioca. Prvo, ova tema nije razvijena u naučno delo u našoj i savremenoj naučnoj literaturi, dakle radi se o originalnoj doktorskoj disertaciji. I drugo, zbog naučnog cilja odnosno naučnog objašnjenja američke spoljne politike prema islamskim pokretima, kao i njihovoj klasifikaciji. Društveni značaj i očekivani rezultati odnose se na sprovođenje američkih spoljno-političkih interesa i vrednosti, i proučavanja uticaja međunarodnog terorizma i radikalnih islamskih pokreta na američku spoljnu politiku, posebno u procesu globalizacije. ; The American administration has shown interest during the 1950-1960's for the North Africa countries, after their independence. By the end of the Cold War, the US officials has invited all North African countries to engage in the process of globalization of the world economy, and after the events during September 2001 in the USA, their research centers has begun more serious to study the Islamic movements inside and outside the Islamic world. The subject of this doctoral thesis is to determine US foreign policy interests and values towards the Islamic movements in the North of Africa at the beginning of the XXI century. The scientific objective of this research is the scientific explanation of US foreign policy towards the Islamic movements, particularly the causes of changes in US foreign policy and their trends towards political parties and movements, after the Arab spring revolutions and the arrival of these Islamic parties to power in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. It includes scientific description and classification of the significant Islamic movements in the North of Africa, with an emphasis on their impact on US foreign policy. The social objective of this thesis is to offer science-based foundation for developing the appropriate US foreign policy towards the Islamic movements, including the role of independent research centers and the media in the creation of American foreign policy. The most used methods in this doctoral thesis were statistical and comparative methods, as well the content analysis for collecting the data. The result, ie scientific contribution of this doctoral thesis is based on two important factors. First, this theme has not been developed as scientific work in our and modern literature, so this is an original doctoral thesis. And second, because of the scientific explanation of American foreign policy towards the Islamic movements, as well as their classification. The social significance and expected results relates to the implementation of US foreign policy interests and values, and studying the impact of international terrorism and radical Islamic movements towards American foreign policy, especially during the process of globalization.
Today's world is shaped by the processes of globalization and economic liberalization, which dominantly determine the social, economic, environmental and political conditions. As part of these processes, there is an increasing rhetoric about the activities of the state to build a legal system 'ideal for attracting' foreign investment, to establish state institutions in charge of 'attracting foreign investment', and to create a business environment conducive to 'attract' foreign investment. Faced with citizen requests and pressure to create conditions for employment, in initial negotiations with foreign investors state, authorities articulate their willingness to meet these requests. The affirmative stance of governments towards the investments of multinational companies easily can be changed. Once the investment begins, the pledges made by one contracting party to the other may prove to be unrealistic and economically unjustified. The tensions generated between the host state and foreign investors jeopardize the foreign investment contract concluded by the contracting parties. Further fulfillment of contractual obligations from foreign investment contracts will be possible if the contracting parties resolve the resulting conflict through mutual negotiations. Through negotiations, the contracting parties can depreciate the impact of the changed circumstances, including a range of economic, political, legislative and environmental conditions. Initiating negotiations at the right time and conducting them in good faith may lead to a solution. Even if an agreement is not reached, the renegotiation may contribute to a better understanding of contractual partners and redefining the positions of the contracting parties.
