Suchergebnisse

"The idea of foresight is as old as recorded societies, as controversial as climate change, as interesting as a murder mystery, and as useful as an umbrella. It is a siren tempting journalists to dash themselves on the rocks of prediction, a competitive sport in which winners may claim high fees for their success-or even failure. Yet the greatest value of foresight is to change our futures, not just to predict them. Foresight embraces more than disengaged claims about what will happen; it can also engage lines of action in which foresight itself causes what happens next-either to confirm its prediction or avoid it"--

PurposeMost public foresight programmes in the 1990s limited participation to technological experts in the identified fields. However, almost all the programmes had an implied social dimension and several concluded that more inclusive participation was needed in future programmes. The paper aims to discuss how inclusiveness might be achieved.Design/methodology/approachAt first sight extending participation seems eminently possible. Inclusiveness is a matter of definition and process that has been encountered in other foresight style activities where the opinions of the polity need to be taken into account. Definitions and processes form the core of our approach, using ideas from human behaviour, sustainability and corporate governance.FindingsLearning how to extend participation has started through the German FUTUR programme and the creation of some online discussion forums. Some other programmes in The Netherlands (1996) and the UK (from 1998 onwards) have attempted to become more inclusive, with varying degrees of success.Research limitations/implicationsThe discussion is restricted to exploring some general principles related to making foresight programmes more inclusive. Some of the detail has been worked out but is not complete enough to be discussed.Practical implicationsInclusiveness introduces specific management and process needs, if foresight programmes are to be extended into the social sphere without their becoming chaotic. The principles discussed imply a need for a change in mind‐set for foresight sponsors and practitioners.Originality/valueNone of these ideas have been used in practice and to that extent are original.

Transformational foresight as a new tool is developed and explored from the perspective of future human evolution. We briefly explore the technology-based alternatives and then focus on the human transpersonal direction for how we might evolve. A tool is proposed (currently under development by the Millennium Project Experimental Cybernode), the "Butterfly Delphi," as a means of teaching/learning/implementing Transformational Foresight.

The use of foresight as a tool in policy and strategic decision making increased especially in the last decade of the twentieth century in order to enhance competitiveness and innovation of nations, regions, corporations and even individuals. Coupled with this development a lot of different definitions which partly include part of the others emerged in the literature. However, it was observed that none of these definitions were capable enough to represent an integrated and holistic view about the impact of foresight on the management of the future. In this article, the integrated foresight management model is introduced which is based on the integrated management model but enriched by a knowledge‐people‐system‐organisation framework. The current list of definitions was tabulated in this new model and the vacancies in the model were filled out. This integrated foresight management model can help practitioners in designing national, regional or corporate programs in developing necessary organisational structures, deliverables and behaviours on policy, strategy and operational levels of management.

Vorausschau erfordert die Anwendung eines Methodenmix. Je bewußter man sich eigener Annahmen und Beschränkungen ist, desto besser lässt sich nach vorn denken. (IP)

This article introduces the Foresight Competency Model, which addresses the basic question of what one ought to be able to do as a professional futurist. It describes how other fields have used competency models to define what their professionals do, documents how the Association of Professional Futurists (APF) developed this model, explains the interrelated features of the model, and suggests ways that organizations can use the model to enhance the foresight capacity of their talent.

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to assess the relationship between the foresight of managers and firm performance.Design/methodology/approachAn evolutionary perspective is deployed to specify the presumed relationship between managerial foresight and firm performance measures. A positive relationship between managerial foresight and firm performance is proposed. The hypothesis is tested through Spearman's rho, on Swedish managers, and firms in the computer programming industry. Managers' foresight as well as performance is assessed as indexes.FindingsThe paper finds a moderate and statistically significant positive relationship between managers' foresight and firm performance.Research limitations/implicationsThere is support for the theoretical relationship between managerial foresight and firm performance. There is a strong rationale for further studies.Originality/valueThe paper provides empirical evidence regarding the importance of managerial foresight for firm performance.

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate how and why foresight may affect individual and organizational learning.Design/methodology/approachThis paper builds on prior research through a qualitative study with 13 foresight practitioners.FindingsThis paper derives four broad foresight capabilities that are underpinned by a number of interdependent factors and relates those to the wider literature on individual and organizational learning.Practical implicationsPractitioners may use this paper's findings to enhance any individual and organizational learning effects of foresight activities. Deriving four broad foresight capabilities via a range of interdependent factors may assist practitioners with evaluating and/or enhancing the effectiveness of these capabilities in an organized fashion. Additionally, the findings show that foresight mode, with its strong relationship to foresight-related accountabilities and incentives, plays a central role in all four foresight capabilities. This stresses the importance of having a continuous foresight capability with strong top management commitment, effective governance and clearly defined roles and responsibilities.Originality/valueThis paper makes a number of theoretical contributions. First, it contributes toward further operationalizing foresight. Second, it demonstrates a substantial overlap between the concepts of foresight and absorptive capacity, which suggests that foresight scholars and practitioners may benefit from a large and mature related body of literature. Third, it identifies explicit links between specific foresight and individual/organizational learning constructs.