Strategic delay and information cascades
In: Journal of economics, Band 114, Heft 1, S. 63-74
ISSN: 1617-7134
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In: Journal of economics, Band 114, Heft 1, S. 63-74
ISSN: 1617-7134
In: Journal of economics, Band 80, Heft 3, S. 211-229
ISSN: 1617-7134
In: The economic journal: the journal of the Royal Economic Society, Band 121, Heft 553, S. 763-792
ISSN: 1468-0297
The precise mechanisms by which the information ecosystem polarizes society remain elusive. Focusing on political sorting in networks, we develop a computational model that examines how social network structure changes when individuals participate in information cascades, evaluate their behavior, and potentially rewire their connections to others as a result. Individuals follow proattitudinal information sources but are more likely to first hear and react to news shared by their social ties and only later evaluate these reactions by direct reference to the coverage of their preferred source. Reactions to news spread through the network via a complex contagion. Following a cascade, individuals who determine that their participation was driven by a subjectively "unimportant" story adjust their social ties to avoid being misled in the future. In our model, this dynamic leads social networks to politically sort when news outlets differentially report on the same topic, even when individuals do not know others' political identities. Observational follow network data collected on Twitter support this prediction: We find that individuals in more polarized information ecosystems lose cross-ideology social ties at a rate that is higher than predicted by chance. Importantly, our model reveals that these emergent polarized networks are less efficient at diffusing information: Individuals avoid what they believe to be "unimportant" news at the expense of missing out on subjectively "important" news far more frequently. This suggests that "echo chambers"—to the extent that they exist—may not echo so much as silence.
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In this talk I introduce Transcendental Information Cascades, a method to understand the temporal dynamics of naturally occurring complex systems through the lens of a specific kind of spatio-temporal network that represents information token recurrence. The method suits very well for exploratory data analysis when it is unknown what is going on at the very low levels of a system's dynamics, and allows switching between looking at individual events or accumulated event sequences. I will present one application of this method in a digital humanities project where we analysed the entire corpus of Charles Dickens's novels and discuss the potential it has for other application areas such as the analysis of brain wave recordings, patent mining or the study of online communities for example. These are the slides of a talk at the RWTH Aachen University, Chair for Computational Social Sciences and Humanities (Germany, date of the talk 06-03-2018) {"references": ["Popper, K., 2013. Knowledge and the Body-Mind Problem: In defence of interaction. Routledge.", "Berners-Lee, Tim; Mark Fischetti (1999). Weaving the Web: The Original Design and Ultimate Destiny of the World Wide Web by its inventor. Britain: Orion Business. ISBN 0-7528-2090-7.", "Luczak-Roesch, M., Tinati, R., Simperl, E., Van Kleek, M., Shadbolt, N., & Simpson, R. (2014). Why won't aliens talk to us? Content and community dynamics in online citizen science. Proceedings of the Eighth AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media, {ICWSM} 2014, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA, June 1-4, 2014.", "Bikhchandani, Sushil, David Hirshleifer, and Ivo Welch. \"A theory of fads, fashion, custom, and cultural change as informational cascades.\" Journal of political Economy (1992): 992-1026.", "Cheng, Justin, et al. \"Can cascades be predicted?.\" Proceedings of the 23rd international conference on World wide web. International World Wide Web Conferences Steering Committee, 2014.", "Markus Luczak-Roesch, Ramine Tinati, and Nigel Shadbolt. 2015. When Resources Collide: Towards ...
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In: American economic review, Band 91, Heft 5, S. 1508-1520
ISSN: 1944-7981
In: Journal of economic dynamics & control, Band 25, Heft 3-4, S. 593-614
ISSN: 0165-1889
In: Discussion Papers / Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung, Forschungsschwerpunkt Markt und politische Ökonomie, Abteilung Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und industrieller Wandel, Band 2004-19
"Wir modellieren eine zweistufige dynamische Investitionsentscheidung mit
Informationsexternalitäten und 'Cheap Talk'. Dabei können wir zunächst zeigen,
dass die Glaubwürdigkeit von 'Cheap Talk'-Aussagen darunter leidet, wenn die
Investitionsentscheidung von solchen Informationen beeinflusst wird, die sich
eher aus dem Handeln der Mitakteure als durch ihre verbalen Bekundungen
ableiten. Dann zeigen wir, dass Informationskaskaden, die alle Akteure dieselbe
Handlung aufgrund öffentlicher Information ohne Berücksichtigung ihrer
privaten Informationen ausführen lassen, dazu führen, das Offenbaren der
wahren Präferenzen der Investoren – optimistisch oder pessimistisch -
anreizkompatibel zu machen. Vergleicht man Projekte mit niedrigen und hohen
Überschüssen, existiert ein Trenngleichgewicht nur bei letzteren, so dass
glaubwürdige Kommunikation eher über Worte als über Taten funktioniert. Will
ein sozialer Planer die Investitionsentscheidungen beeinflussen, kann er sowohl
durch eine Subventionierung als auch durch eine Besteuerung der Investitionen
die Wohlfahrt vergrößern." (Autorenreferat)
In: The economic journal: the journal of the Royal Economic Society, Band 113, Heft 484, S. 166-189
ISSN: 1468-0297
Abstract Through a content analysis of 8,800 news items and six months of front pages of three Brazilian newspapers, all dealing with corruption and political transgression, the present article documents the remarkable bias of media coverage toward corruption scandals. Said bias is examined as an informational phenomenon, arising from key systemic and commercial factors of Brazil's news media: an information cascade of news on corruption formed, destabilizing the governing coalition and legitimizing the impeachment process of Dilma Rousseff. As this process gained momentum, questions of accountability were disregarded by the media, with harmful effects for democracy.
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International audience ; This paper deals with a survey corpus. We present information retrieval about the speaker. We used finite state transducer cascades and we present here detailed results with an evaluation. This work is part of a French project to enhance the corpus ESLO (sociolinguistic survey taken in the city of Orléans). This survey has been realized in 1968 and the project is to save records in computer format, to transcribe them and to increase the transcription with annotations in XML format. This work was supported by a French ANR contract (ANR-06-CORP-023) and by European fund from Région Centre (FEDER). The corpus represent a collection of 200 interviews with the questions about the life in the city of Orléans: How long have you lived in Orléans for?, What led you to live in Orléans?, Do you like living in Orléans?, etc. and questions about the occupation or the family of the speaker, completed by recordings within a professional or private context. The recording situations are different: interviews, discussions between friends, recordings in microphone hidden, interviews with the political, academic and religious personalities, conversations between a social worker and parents in Psycho Medical Center of Orleans. In total, we have 300 hours of speech estimated to 4,500,000 words. More precisely, we worked on almost 120 transcribed hours representing 112 Transcriber XML files and 32 577 Kb. We worked on 105 files (31 004 Kb) and we evaluated the results on 7 files (1 573 Kb-5.1%). The transcription files have no punctuation marks, but the first letter of proper names is capitalized and acronyms are fully capitalized. We used the CasSys system (Friburger, Maurel, 2004) that computes texts with transducer cascades (Abney, 1996). The cascades we used are hand built: each transducer describes a local grammar for the recognition of some entities. Some times this recognition needs the succession of two or more transducers, in a specific order. More precisely, we used two cascades; the first one, for ...
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International audience ; This paper deals with a survey corpus. We present information retrieval about the speaker. We used finite state transducer cascades and we present here detailed results with an evaluation. This work is part of a French project to enhance the corpus ESLO (sociolinguistic survey taken in the city of Orléans). This survey has been realized in 1968 and the project is to save records in computer format, to transcribe them and to increase the transcription with annotations in XML format. This work was supported by a French ANR contract (ANR-06-CORP-023) and by European fund from Région Centre (FEDER). The corpus represent a collection of 200 interviews with the questions about the life in the city of Orléans: How long have you lived in Orléans for?, What led you to live in Orléans?, Do you like living in Orléans?, etc. and questions about the occupation or the family of the speaker, completed by recordings within a professional or private context. The recording situations are different: interviews, discussions between friends, recordings in microphone hidden, interviews with the political, academic and religious personalities, conversations between a social worker and parents in Psycho Medical Center of Orleans. In total, we have 300 hours of speech estimated to 4,500,000 words. More precisely, we worked on almost 120 transcribed hours representing 112 Transcriber XML files and 32 577 Kb. We worked on 105 files (31 004 Kb) and we evaluated the results on 7 files (1 573 Kb-5.1%). The transcription files have no punctuation marks, but the first letter of proper names is capitalized and acronyms are fully capitalized. We used the CasSys system (Friburger, Maurel, 2004) that computes texts with transducer cascades (Abney, 1996). The cascades we used are hand built: each transducer describes a local grammar for the recognition of some entities. Some times this recognition needs the succession of two or more transducers, in a specific order. More precisely, we used two cascades; the first one, for ...
BASE
International audience ; This paper deals with a survey corpus. We present information retrieval about the speaker. We used finite state transducer cascades and we present here detailed results with an evaluation. This work is part of a French project to enhance the corpus ESLO (sociolinguistic survey taken in the city of Orléans). This survey has been realized in 1968 and the project is to save records in computer format, to transcribe them and to increase the transcription with annotations in XML format. This work was supported by a French ANR contract (ANR-06-CORP-023) and by European fund from Région Centre (FEDER). The corpus represent a collection of 200 interviews with the questions about the life in the city of Orléans: How long have you lived in Orléans for?, What led you to live in Orléans?, Do you like living in Orléans?, etc. and questions about the occupation or the family of the speaker, completed by recordings within a professional or private context. The recording situations are different: interviews, discussions between friends, recordings in microphone hidden, interviews with the political, academic and religious personalities, conversations between a social worker and parents in Psycho Medical Center of Orleans. In total, we have 300 hours of speech estimated to 4,500,000 words. More precisely, we worked on almost 120 transcribed hours representing 112 Transcriber XML files and 32 577 Kb. We worked on 105 files (31 004 Kb) and we evaluated the results on 7 files (1 573 Kb-5.1%). The transcription files have no punctuation marks, but the first letter of proper names is capitalized and acronyms are fully capitalized. We used the CasSys system (Friburger, Maurel, 2004) that computes texts with transducer cascades (Abney, 1996). The cascades we used are hand built: each transducer describes a local grammar for the recognition of some entities. Some times this recognition needs the succession of two or more transducers, in a specific order. More precisely, we used two cascades; the first one, for ...
BASE
International audience ; This paper deals with a survey corpus. We present information retrieval about the speaker. We used finite state transducer cascades and we present here detailed results with an evaluation. This work is part of a French project to enhance the corpus ESLO (sociolinguistic survey taken in the city of Orléans). This survey has been realized in 1968 and the project is to save records in computer format, to transcribe them and to increase the transcription with annotations in XML format. This work was supported by a French ANR contract (ANR-06-CORP-023) and by European fund from Région Centre (FEDER). The corpus represent a collection of 200 interviews with the questions about the life in the city of Orléans: How long have you lived in Orléans for?, What led you to live in Orléans?, Do you like living in Orléans?, etc. and questions about the occupation or the family of the speaker, completed by recordings within a professional or private context. The recording situations are different: interviews, discussions between friends, recordings in microphone hidden, interviews with the political, academic and religious personalities, conversations between a social worker and parents in Psycho Medical Center of Orleans. In total, we have 300 hours of speech estimated to 4,500,000 words. More precisely, we worked on almost 120 transcribed hours representing 112 Transcriber XML files and 32 577 Kb. We worked on 105 files (31 004 Kb) and we evaluated the results on 7 files (1 573 Kb-5.1%). The transcription files have no punctuation marks, but the first letter of proper names is capitalized and acronyms are fully capitalized. We used the CasSys system (Friburger, Maurel, 2004) that computes texts with transducer cascades (Abney, 1996). The cascades we used are hand built: each transducer describes a local grammar for the recognition of some entities. Some times this recognition needs the succession of two or more transducers, in a specific order. More precisely, we used two cascades; the first one, for ...
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In: Network science, Band 9, Heft S1, S. S157-S174
ISSN: 2050-1250
AbstractCritical cascades are found in many self-organizing systems. Here, we examine critical cascades as a design paradigm for logic and learning under the linear threshold model (LTM), and simple biologically inspired variants of it as sources of computational power, learning efficiency, and robustness. First, we show that the LTM can compute logic, and with a small modification, universal Boolean logic, examining its stability and cascade frequency. We then frame it formally as a binary classifier and remark on implications for accuracy. Second, we examine the LTM as a statistical learning model, studying benefits of spatial constraints and criticality to efficiency. We also discuss implications for robustness in information encoding. Our experiments show that spatial constraints can greatly increase efficiency. Theoretical investigation and initial experimental results also indicate that criticality can result in a sudden increase in accuracy.