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Amid increasing regulation, structural changes of the market and Quantitative Easing as well as extremely low yields, concerns about the market liquidity of the Eurozone sovereign debt markets have been raised. We aim to quantify illiquidity risks, especially such related to liquidity dry-ups, and illiquidity spillover across maturities by examining the reaction to illiquidity shocks at high frequencies in two ways: a) the regular response to shocks using a variance decomposition and, b) the response to shocks in the extremes by detecting illiquidity shocks and modeling those as ultivariate Hawkes processes. We find that: a) market liquidity is more fragile and less predictable when an asset is very illiquid and, b) the response to shocks in the extremes is structurally different from the regular response. In 2015 long-term bonds are less liquid and the medium-term bonds are liquid, although we observe that in the extremes the medium-term bonds are increasingly driven by illiquidity spillover from the long-term titles.

We explored the effect of the jump-diffusion process on a social benefit scheme consisting of life insurance, unemployment/disability benefits, and retirement benefits. To do so, we used a four-state Markov chain with multiple decrements. Assuming independent state-wise intensities taking the form of a jump-diffusion process and deterministic interest rates, we evaluated the prospective reserves for this scheme in which the individual is employed at inception. We then numerically demonstrated the state of the reserves for the scheme under jump-diffusion and non-jump-diffusion settings. By decomposing the reserve equation into five components, our numerical illustration indicated that an extension of the retirement age has a spillover effect that would increase government expenses for other social insurance programs. We also conducted sensitivity analyses and examined the total-reserves components by changing the relevant parameters of the transition intensities, which are the average jump-size parameter, average jump frequency, and diffusion parameters of the chosen states, with figures provided. Our computation revealed that the total reserve is most sensitive to changes in average jump frequency.

We explored the effect of the jump-diffusion process on a social benefit scheme consisting of life insurance, unemployment/disability benefits, and retirement benefits. To do so, we used a four-state Markov chain with multiple decrements. Assuming independent state-wise intensities taking the form of a jump-diffusion process and deterministic interest rates, we evaluated the prospective reserves for this scheme in which the individual is employed at inception. We then numerically demonstrated the state of the reserves for the scheme under jump-diffusion and non-jump-diffusion settings. By decomposing the reserve equation into five components, our numerical illustration indicated that an extension of the retirement age has a spillover effect that would increase government expenses for other social insurance programs. We also conducted sensitivity analyses and examined the total-reserves components by changing the relevant parameters of the transition intensities, which are the average jump-size parameter, average jump frequency, and diffusion parameters of the chosen states, with figures provided. Our computation revealed that the total reserve is most sensitive to changes in average jump frequency.

Studying the emergence of novel infectious agents involves many processes spanning host species, spatial scales, and scientific disciplines. Mathematical models play an essential role in combining insights from these investigations and drawing robust inferences from field and experimental data. We describe nine challenges in modelling the emergence of novel pathogens, emphasizing the interface between models and data. ; We acknowledge support from the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) programme of the Science and Technology Directory, Department of Homeland Security, and Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health. JLS was also supported by the National Science Foundation (EF-0928987 and OCE-1335657) and the De Logi Chair in Biological Sciences. SF was supported by a UK Medical Research Council Career Development Award in Biostatistics. SR was supported by: Wellcome Trust Project Award 093488/Z/10/Z; R01 TW008246-01 from Fogarty International Centre; and The Medical Research Council (UK, Project Grant MR/J008761/1). JLNW was also supported by the Alborada Trust and the European Union FP7 project ANTIGONE (contract number 278976). ; This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Elsevier via http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2014.09.002

Abstract
This paper uses a regression discontinuity design to estimate the impact of the minimum legal drinking age (MLDA) laws on alcohol consumption and labor market outcomes of young adults. Using confidential data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 Cohort (NLSY97), I find that granting legal access to alcohol at age 21 leads to an increase in several measures of alcohol consumption. The discrete jump in the alcohol consumption at the MLDA has also negative spillover effects on the labor market outcomes of young adults. In particular, I document that the MLDA is associated with a 1 hour decrease in weekly working hours. However, the effect of the MLDA laws on wages is negative only under certain specifications. These results suggest that the policies designed to curb drinking may not only have desirable effects in reducing alcohol consumption among young adults but also have positive spillover effects on their labor market outcomes.