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Noah and Joseph Effects in Government Budgets: Analyzing Long‐Term Memory
In: Policy studies journal: the journal of the Policy Studies Organization, Band 35, Heft 3, S. 329-348
ISSN: 1541-0072
This article examines the combined effects of what mathematician Benoit Mandelbrot has termed "Noah" and "Joseph" effects in U.S. national government budgeting. Noah effects, which reference the biblical great flood, are large changes or punctuations, far larger than could be expected given the Gaussian or Normal models that social scientists typically employ. Joseph effects refer to the seven fat and seven lean years that Joseph predicted to the Pharaoh. They are "near cycles" or "runs" in time series that look cyclical, but are not, because they do not occur on a regular, predictable basis. The Joseph effect is long‐term memory in time series. Public expenditures in the United States from 1800 to 2004 shows clear Noah and Joseph effects. For the whole budget, these effects are strong prior to World War II (WWII) and weaker afterward. For individual programs, however, both effects are clearly detectable after WWII. Before WWII, budgeting was neither incremental nor well behaved because punctuations were even more severe and memory was not characterized by simple autoregressive properties. The obvious break that occurred after WWII could have signaled a regime shift in how policy was made in America, but even the more stable modern world is far more uncertain than the traditional incremental view.
Noah and Joseph Effects in Government Budgets: Analyzing Long-Term Memory
In: Policy studies journal: an international journal of public policy, Band 35, Heft 3, S. 329-348
ISSN: 0190-292X
Long-Term Memory and Its Evolution in Returns of Stock Index PX Between 1997 and 2009
In: Politická ekonomie: teorie, modelování, aplikace, Band 58, Heft 4, S. 471-487
ISSN: 2336-8225
N/A
Primacy effect or recency effect? A long‐term memory test of Super Bowl commercials
In: Journal of consumer behaviour, Band 9, Heft 1, S. 32-44
ISSN: 1479-1838
Abstract
The serial position effects for television commercials were tested within a naturalistic setting in this study, at both the micro level and the macro level. Television viewers' brand memory (recall and recognition) for the 2006 Super Bowl commercials were analyzed. At the micro level, the serial position of each commercial in a same commercial pod was measured. When the length of a commercial pod was controlled for, an earlier position for a commercial generated better brand recall. When the number of preceding ads was held constant, a commercial in a pod with fewer ads generated better brand recognition. At the macro level, the serial position of each commercial pod within the whole Super Bowl game broadcast was measured. The commercial pods at earlier positions generated better brand memory. Both findings confirmed a strong primacy effect. Managerial implications of the findings were also discussed.
Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Remember lest we forget: the link between long-term memory and narrative, empathy and previous knowledge in Israel
In: Israel affairs, Band 30, Heft 2, S. 333-349
ISSN: 1743-9086
"They Are Khawārij of Our Time:" Relying on Background Knowledge and Long-Term Memory to Justify Fighting ISIS in Jordanian Political Discourse
In: Journal of nationalism, memory & language politics: JNMLP, Band 16, Heft 1, S. 71-93
ISSN: 2570-5857
Abstract
This study focuses on a discourse practice that metaphorically associates ISIS with an early Islamic sect known as the Kharijites. This practice constructs a discourse that calls back the background knowledge and memory of historical narratives and experiences that create conceptual frames that communicate meanings of war and atrocities. These meanings were used by King Abdullah II of Jordan to justify Jordan's military participation against ISIS (circa 2014–2018). On the basis of the "blending theory" of conceptual metaphor, this study shows how the discourse practice of depicting ISIS as the Kharijites has undergone selective associations with the ideological aim of constructing persuasive and coercive discourses to justify military intervention against ISIS, primarily by foregrounding scripts of threat and victimization. That, in turn, leads to the instigation of illusive and incomplete associations.
Estimating Term Premium with Long and Short Memory Term Structure Models
In: 23-139
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Dlouhá pame? a její vyvoj ve vynosech burzovního indexu PX v letech 1999-2009 (Long-Term Memory and Its Evolution in Returns of Stock Index PX between 1997 and 2009)
In: Politická ekonomie: teorie, modelování, aplikace, Band 58, Heft 4, S. 471-487
ISSN: 0032-3233
Shifting baselines: interdisciplinary perspectives on long-term change perception and memory
Daniel Pauly's concept of the shifting baseline syndrome (SBS) focuses on problems of scientists' long-term change perception and in particular on the forgetting of reference points established by preceding generations. Once introduced in the context of fisheries science, the concept is currently widely applied in neighbouring disciplines, but has only begun to enter the field of social and cultural science.
This article considers the shifting baseline syndrome in an interdisciplinary context and describes suggestions emerging that way: With regard to the concept's context of origin, it shows that approaches from social and cultural science such as the sociology of knowledge and memory studies allow a more detailed and comprehensive understanding of questions addressed by the concept. Conversely, with regard to social and cultural science, this concept originating from natural science suggests the relevance of autobiographical, communicative, cultural and future memory for studying problems and potentials of sustainability and long-term change perception in general.
Long-Memory Inflation Uncertainty: Evidence from the Term Structure of Interest Rates
In: NBER Working Paper No. t0133
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The Long-Term Gender and Race Issues in Long-Term Care
In: Lincoln Memorial University Law Review 2020
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High resolution conflict forecasting with spatial convolutions and long short-term memory
In: International interactions: empirical and theoretical research in international relations, Band 48, Heft 4, S. 739-758
ISSN: 1547-7444
Forecasting Commodity Prices Using Long-Short-Term Memory Neural Networks
In: IFPRI Discussion Paper 2000 (2021)
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