This paper extends the results of Byers, Davidson and Peel (1997) on long memory in support for the Conservative and Labour Parties in the UK using longer samples and additional poll series. It finds continuing support for the ARFIMA(0,d,0) model though with somewhat smaller values of the long memory parameter. We find that the move to telephone polling in the mid-1990s has no apparent effect on the estimated value of d for either party. Finally, we find that we cannot reject the hypotheses that the parties share a common long memory parameter which we estimate at around 0.65.
Abstract — This work proposes an initial memory model for a long-term artificial companion, which migrates among virtual and robot platforms based on the context of interactions with the human user. This memory model enables the companion to remember events that are relevant or significant to itself or to the user. For other events which are either ethically sensitive or with a lower long-term value, the memory model supports forgetting through the processes of generalisation and memory restructuring. The proposed memory model draws inspiration from the human short-term and long-term memories. The short-term memory will support companions in focusing on the stimuli that are relevant to their current active goals within the environment. The long-term memory will contain episodic events that are chronologically sequenced and derived from the companion’s interaction history both with the environment and the user. There are two key questions that we try to address in this work: 1) What information should the companion remember in order to generate appropriate behaviours and thus smooth the interaction with the user? And, 2) What are the relevant aspects to take into consideration during the design of memory for a companion that can have different types of virtual and physical bodies? Finally, we show an implementation plan of the memory model, focusing on issues of information grounding, activation and sensing based on specific hardware platforms. I.
Political scientists often wish to classify documents based on their content to measure variables, such as the ideology of political speeches or whether documents describe a Militarized Interstate Dispute. Simple classifiers often serve well in these tasks. However, if words occurring early in a document alter the meaning of words occurring later in the document, using a more complicated model that can incorporate these time-dependent relationships can increase classification accuracy. Long short-term memory (LSTM) models are a type of neural network model designed to work with data that contains time dependencies. We investigate the conditions under which these models are useful for political science text classification tasks with applications to Chinese social media posts as well as US newspaper articles. We also provide guidance for the use of LSTM models.
Cognitive models of political behavior and political decision making have been a staple of research in political science for decades. Recent advances in cognitive psychology and behavioral decision making underscore the utility of models that incorporate memory dynamics for understanding a wide range of political behaviors at the individual level. Four memory systems are relevant; sensory memory, short-term memory, working memory, and long-term memory. Information moves from sensory memory to short-term memory stores, a subset of which is then acted upon by working memory. Working memory manipulates its contents through processes such as reasoning, comprehension, attention, integration, and retrieval of supplementary information from long-term memory. Working memory ultimately holds and processes the thoughts and feelings that are salient to an individual at a given point in time. Memory models of decision making elaborate what cognitions and emotions are likely to enter working memory and how those cognitions and emotions are combined and integrated when making a behavioral decision.
Designed to evaluate the paradigmatic view of the Spanish transition as an ideal model for political and social change, this new and innovative volume appraises Spain's movement to democracy from a variety of important perspectives.