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Long appeared as a ''good student'' of African continent, as a model of democracy – with a religious life free of violence, which blends harmoniously orthodox religious, heretics and non-Muslims – the year 2012 marked a turning point in the history of Mali. Thanks to the crisis, the segmentation of Malian Islam, although having peacefully exercised previously, will manifest in an unprecedented violence, with arms. Revealing, both, the limits of democracy, the withering away of the state, some critical social ills, significant shortcomings in the governance, the crisis of the year 2012 also unveiled new types of connections, linking the Islamic sphere to the politic. These links are dominated by the omnipresence, Islamic influence in the political sphere. Religious movements derive their influence from their ability to express and produce policy, combined with their strong anchor near to the population, through significant social works. This Islamic dynamic in the Malian political public space, will be exploited by the political elites, making Muslim elites partners, particularly in election periods. ; Le Mali est apparu pendant longtemps comme un ''bon élève'', un modèle de démocratie du continent africain. Sa société, avant l'éclatement de la crise de 2012, se caractérisait par une vie religieuse exempte de violences, réunissant harmonieusement les diverses tendances doctrinales (musulmans orthodoxes, hérétiques et non-musulmans). A la faveur de la crise, la segmentation de l'islam malien, bien que s'étant auparavant pacifiquement exercée, s'est manifestée sous une violence inédite, par les armes. À la fois révélateur des limites de la démocratie, d'un dépérissement de l'Etat, de maux sociaux/sociétaux critiques, d'importants dysfonctionnements dans le mode de gouvernance, la crise de 2012 a également dévoilé de nouveaux types de rapports liant la sphère islamique au domaine politique malien. Ces rapports sont dominés par l'omniprésence, l'influence islamique dans la sphère politique. Les mouvements religieux ...

"On October 4, 1957, in the midst of the Cold War, the Soviet Union launched Sputnik I, the first artificial Earth satellite. For the West, and especially the United States, it was a shattering blow to national morale and pride. It led to a deep-seated fear that the Soviet Union would surpass the United States in both technology and power and that even nuclear war might be near. After Sputnik shows that the late 1950s were not an era of complacency and smugness, but were some of the most anxious years in American history. The Cold War was by no means a time of peace. It was an era of a different kind of battle--one that took place in negotiations and in the internal affairs of many countries, but not always on the battlefield. While many choose to remember President Eisenhower as a near-pacifist, his actions in Lebanon, the Taiwan Straits Crisis, Berlin, and elsewhere proved otherwise. Seconded by his able Secretary of State, he steered America though some of the most difficult parts of the Cold War, not always succeeding, but preventing disaster. The Middle East and Berlin crises, the Indonesian Civil War, Fidel Castro's rise to power, and other events are all bluntly discussed in the light of Western, and other, illusions and delusions. In this engaging history, Levine delves deeply into this often misrepresented period of history, and provides new insight into one of the most formative decades in American history"--Provided by publisher

Testimony issued by the General Accounting Office with an abstract that begins "In the summer of 2000, the air traffic control system lacked the capacity to handle demand efficiently, and flight delays produced near-gridlock conditions at several U.S. airports. A combination of factors, including the crises instigated by the events of 9/11, temporarily reduced air traffic, but air traffic is now back to near pre-9/11 levels. The ability of the air traffic control system to handle expected traffic in coming years may depend in part on the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) effectiveness in planning for a long-expected wave of air traffic controller retirements. GAO's testimony focuses on (1) the magnitude and timing of the pending wave of air traffic controller retirements, (2) the challenges FAA faces in ensuring that well-qualified air traffic controllers are ready to step into the gap created by the expected large number of retirements, and (3) challenges that will affect the ability of the air traffic controller workforce to meet future changes in the airline industry and use of airspace. GAO's statement is based on past reports on the air traffic controller workforce, including GAO's 2002 report that surveyed controllers and analyzed controller workforce data. GAO has updated this work through interviews with and the collection of data from key stakeholders in the aviation community. This work was performed in accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards."

This paper analyzes how Japan financed its World War II occupation of Southeast Asia, the transfer of resources to Japan, and the monetary and inflation consequences of Japanese policies. In Malaya, Burma, Indonesia and the Philippines, the issue of military scrip to pay for resources and occupying armies greatly increased money supply. Despite high inflation, hyperinflation hardly occurred because of a sustained transactions demand for money, because of Japan's strong enforcement of monetary monopoly, and because of declining Japanese military capability to ship resources home. In Thailand and Indochina, occupation costs and bilateral clearing arrangements created near open-ended Japanese purchasing power and allowed the transfer to Japan of as much as a third of Indochina's annual GDP. Although the Thai and Indochinese governments financed Japanese demands mainly by printing large quantities of money, inflation rose only in line with monetary expansion due to money's continued use as a store of value in rice-surplus areas.

Introduction : studying China and strategic priorities / Jonathan H. Ping -- 1. Myth-busting : challenging the conventional wisdom on Chinese strategic culture / Andrew R. Wilson -- 2. Western river civilization and the logic of China's strategic behavior / Su Hao and Cui Yue -- 3. Analyzing China's foreign policy : domestic politics, public opinion and leaders / Eric Hyer, Zhang Qingmin and Jordan Hamzawi -- 4. Crises as impetus for institutionalization : maritime crisis management mechanisms in China's near seas / Gaye Christoffersen -- 5. The US factor in China's dispute with Japan over the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands : balancing Washington's "rebalancing" in East Asian waters / Ulises Granados -- 6. China's relations with India : great power statecraft and territory / Jonathan H. Ping -- 7. US-China cooperation : the role of Pakistan after the death of Osama bin Laden / Timothy D. Hoyt -- 8. Chinese regionalism : balancing and constraint in the Shanghai cooperation organization / Alica Kizekova -- 9. Conclusion / Brett McCormick.

AbstractNot since the late 1850s has the United States seen the portents leading to a major political crisis be so numerous and grave. Over the last two decades, local and national social capital has steeply declined, culminating in a near‐collapse of social capital within the last 6 years. The potential for a national political crisis is now more plausible, making a dramatic crisis (e.g., bloodless revolt, a civil war, or secession) conceivable within a generation. This article reviews the interlocking concepts of social inclusion, social exclusion, radicalization, and societal collapse and draws from these concepts to elucidate the antecedents to major political crises. We connect these observations to the central role of political and administrative leadership in a democratic society in challenging times. Integrative recommendations for combating extremism and radicalization are provided to highlight key strategies for restoring social capital and stability.

The ongoing military and political escalations in and around Donbas - including the increase in Russian military deployments near Ukraine's borders - represent one of the most severe security crises in Europe since Russia's aggression against Ukraine in 2014. The patterns of Russian military deployments, the structure of forces, and the types of observed military hardware strongly suggest the risk of an offensive operation rather than an exercise. Given the existing political costs, that operation is likely to take indirect forms by using the cover of Russian military proxies in Donbas. This crisis represents both a major challenge and an opportunity for the European Union (EU) to conduct practical work on developing its strategic autonomy and offer leadership in strengthening the security in its immediate neighbourhood. What should the EU do in practical terms to discourage further military escalation around Donbas, or at least increase the costs for such a development?

The ongoing military and political escalations in and around Donbas - including the increase in Russian military deployments near Ukraine's borders - represent one of the most severe security crises in Europe since Russia's aggression against Ukraine in 2014. The patterns of Russian military deployments, the structure of forces, and the types of observed military hardware strongly suggest the risk of an offensive operation rather than an exercise. Given the existing political costs, that operation is likely to take indirect forms by using the cover of Russian military proxies in Donbas. This crisis represents both a major challenge and an opportunity for the European Union (EU) to conduct practical work on developing its strategic autonomy and offer leader­ship in strengthening the security in its immediate neighbourhood. What should the EU do in practical terms to discourage further military escalation around Donbas, or at least increase the costs for such a development? (author's abstract)

Recent years have seen major political crises throughout the world, and foreign policy analysts nearly universally expect to see rising tensions within (and between) countries in the next 5–20 years. Being able to predict future crises and to assess the resilience of different countries to various shocks is of foremost importance in averting the potentially huge human costs of state collapse and civil war. The premise of this paper is that a transdisciplinary approach to forecasting social breakdown, recovery, and resilience is entirely feasible, as a result of recent breakthroughs in statistical analysis of large-scale historical data, the qualitative insights of historical and semiotic investigations, and agent-based models that translate between micro-dynamics of interacting individuals and the collective macro-level events emerging from these interactions. Our goal is to construct a series of probabilistic scenarios of social breakdown and recovery, based on historical crises and outcomes, which can aid the analysis of potential outcomes of future crises. We call this approach—similar in spirit to ensemble forecasting in weather prediction—multipath forecasting (MPF). This paper aims to set out the methodological premises and basic stages envisaged to realize this goal within a transdisciplinary research collaboration: first, the statistical analysis of a massive database of past instances of crisis to determine how actual outcomes (the severity of disruption and violence, the speed of resolution) depend on inputs (economic, political, and cultural factors); second, the encoding of these analytical insights into probabilistic, empirically informed computational models of societal breakdown and recovery—the MPF engine; third, testing the MPF engine to "predict" the trajectories and outcomes of another set of past social upheavals, which were not used in building the model. This "historical retrodiction" is an innovation that will allow us to further refine the MPF technology. Ultimately our vision is to use MPF to help write what we call "a history of possible futures," in which the near- and medium-term paths of societies are probabilistically forecast. ; A History of Possible Futures: Multipath Forecasting of Social breakdown, Recovery and Resilience ; publishedVersion

Recent years have seen major political crises throughout the world, and foreign policy analysts nearly universally expect to see rising tensions within (and between) countries in the next 5–20 years. Being able to predict future crises and to assess the resilience of different countries to various shocks is of foremost importance in averting the potentially huge human costs of state collapse and civil war. The premise of this paper is that a transdisciplinary approach to forecasting social breakdown, recovery, and resilience is entirely feasible, as a result of recent breakthroughs in statistical analysis of large-scale historical data, the qualitative insights of historical and semiotic investigations, and agent-based models that translate between micro-dynamics of interacting individuals and the collective macro-level events emerging from these interactions. Our goal is to construct a series of probabilistic scenarios of social breakdown and recovery, based on historical crises and outcomes, which can aid the analysis of potential outcomes of future crises. We call this approach—similar in spirit to ensemble forecasting in weather prediction—multipath forecasting (MPF). This paper aims to set out the methodological premises and basic stages envisaged to realize this goal within a transdisciplinary research collaboration: first, the statistical analysis of a massive database of past instances of crisis to determine how actual outcomes (the severity of disruption and violence, the speed of resolution) depend on inputs (economic, political, and cultural factors); second, the encoding of these analytical insights into probabilistic, empirically informed computational models of societal breakdown and recovery—the MPF engine; third, testing the MPF engine to "predict" the trajectories and outcomes of another set of past social upheavals, which were not used in building the model. This "historical retrodiction" is an innovation that will allow us to further refine the MPF technology. Ultimately our vision is to use MPF to help write what we call "a history of possible futures," in which the near- and medium-term paths of societies are probabilistically forecast. ; A History of Possible Futures: Multipath Forecasting of Social breakdown, Recovery and Resilience

Recent years have seen major political crises throughout the world, and foreign policy analysts nearly universally expect to see rising tensions within (and between) countries in the next 5–20 years. Being able to predict future crises and to assess the resilience of different countries to various shocks is of foremost importance in averting the potentially huge human costs of state collapse and civil war. The premise of this paper is that a transdisciplinary approach to forecasting social breakdown, recovery, and resilience is entirely feasible, as a result of recent breakthroughs in statistical analysis of large-scale historical data, the qualitative insights of historical and semiotic investigations, and agent-based models that translate between micro-dynamics of interacting individuals and the collective macro-level events emerging from these interactions. Our goal is to construct a series of probabilistic scenarios of social breakdown and recovery, based on historical crises and outcomes, which can aid the analysis of potential outcomes of future crises. We call this approach—similar in spirit to ensemble forecasting in weather prediction—multipath forecasting (MPF). This paper aims to set out the methodological premises and basic stages envisaged to realize this goal within a transdisciplinary research collaboration: first, the statistical analysis of a massive database of past instances of crisis to determine how actual outcomes (the severity of disruption and violence, the speed of resolution) depend on inputs (economic, political, and cultural factors); second, the encoding of these analytical insights into probabilistic, empirically informed computational models of societal breakdown and recovery—the MPF engine; third, testing the MPF engine to "predict" the trajectories and outcomes of another set of past social upheavals, which were not used in building the model. This "historical retrodiction" is an innovation that will allow us to further refine the MPF technology. Ultimately our vision is to use MPF to help write what we call "a history of possible futures," in which the near- and medium-term paths of societies are probabilistically forecast.

Recent years have seen major political crises throughout the world, and foreign policy analysts nearly universally expect to see rising tensions within (and between) countries in the next 5–20 years. Being able to predict future crises and to assess the resilience of different countries to various shocks is of foremost importance in averting the potentially huge human costs of state collapse and civil war. The premise of this paper is that a transdisciplinary approach to forecasting social breakdown, recovery, and resilience is entirely feasible, as a result of recent breakthroughs in statistical analysis of large-scale historical data, the qualitative insights of historical and semiotic investigations, and agent-based models that translate between micro-dynamics of interacting individuals and the collective macro-level events emerging from these interactions. Our goal is to construct a series of probabilistic scenarios of social breakdown and recovery, based on historical crises and outcomes, which can aid the analysis of potential outcomes of future crises. We call this approach—similar in spirit to ensemble forecasting in weather prediction—multipath forecasting (MPF). This paper aims to set out the methodological premises and basic stages envisaged to realize this goal within a transdisciplinary research collaboration: first, the statistical analysis of a massive database of past instances of crisis to determine how actual outcomes (the severity of disruption and violence, the speed of resolution) depend on inputs (economic, political, and cultural factors); second, the encoding of these analytical insights into probabilistic, empirically informed computational models of societal breakdown and recovery—the MPF engine; third, testing the MPF engine to "predict" the trajectories and outcomes of another set of past social upheavals, which were not used in building the model. This "historical retrodiction" is an innovation that will allow us to further refine the MPF technology. Ultimately our vision is to use MPF to help write what we call "a history of possible futures," in which the near- and medium-term paths of societies are probabilistically forecast.

Recent years have seen major political crises throughout the world, and foreign policy analysts nearly universally expect to see rising tensions within (and between) countries in the next 5–20 years. Being able to predict future crises and to assess the resilience of different countries to various shocks is of foremost importance in averting the potentially huge human costs of state collapse and civil war. The premise of this paper is that a transdisciplinary approach to forecasting social breakdown, recovery, and resilience is entirely feasible, as a result of recent breakthroughs in statistical analysis of large-scale historical data, the qualitative insights of historical and semiotic investigations, and agent-based models that translate between micro-dynamics of interacting individuals and the collective macro-level events emerging from these interactions. Our goal is to construct a series of probabilistic scenarios of social breakdown and recovery, based on historical crises and outcomes, which can aid the analysis of potential outcomes of future crises. We call this approach—similar in spirit to ensemble forecasting in weather prediction—multipath forecasting (MPF). This paper aims to set out the methodological premises and basic stages envisaged to realize this goal within a transdisciplinary research collaboration: first, the statistical analysis of a massive database of past instances of crisis to determine how actual outcomes (the severity of disruption and violence, the speed of resolution) depend on inputs (economic, political, and cultural factors); second, the encoding of these analytical insights into probabilistic, empirically informed computational models of societal breakdown and recovery—the MPF engine; third, testing the MPF engine to "predict" the trajectories and outcomes of another set of past social upheavals, which were not used in building the model. This "historical retrodiction" is an innovation that will allow us to further refine the MPF technology. Ultimately our vision is to use MPF to help write what we call "a history of possible futures," in which the near- and medium-term paths of societies are probabilistically forecast.

This volume explores democracy in the 20th century, examining the triumph, crises, recovery, and resilience of democracy and its associated cultures in this period. From 1920 democracy became the hegemonic discourse in political cultures, to the extent that even its enemies claimed its legacy. The end of empires ushered in an unprecedented globalization of democratic aspirations. Barriers of gender and race were gradually removed, and greater equality gave new meaning to citizenship. Yet, already in 1922 democracy was on its back foot with the rise of fascism. Even after the latter s defeat in 1945, liberal democracy died wherever communist democracy triumphed. The situation changed again from 1989, but democratic hubris was then checked by the rise of a new enemy-populism. The paradox is that the century of democracy s triumph was also that of its near final defeat, while the peace and stability that everybody desired and many expected as the outcome of the extension of democracy were, at best, intermittent and geographically limited. Each chapter takes a different theme as its focus: sovereignty; liberty and the rule of law; the common good ; economic and social democracy; religion and the principles of political obligation; citizenship and gender; ethnicity, race, and nationalism; democratic crises, revolutions, and civil resistance; international relations; and democratic politics beyond the polis. These ten different approaches to democracy since 1920 offer a global, synoptic, and probing exploration of the subject