Suchergebnisse

ADP surprises (again) on the upside (324K vs. 189K Bloomberg consensus). I'm not sure we should take too much from that development. Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment from ADP (teal), Bloomberg consensus (tan square), from BLS (blue bold), Bloomberg consensus (red square), in 000's s.a. Implied levels calculated by adding consensus change to June […]

Philadelphia Fed's early benchmark indicates NFP employment is on lower trajectory than indicated by the CES measure, by about 600 thousands. How does this change the picture? Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from establishment survey (blue), from Philadelphia Fed early benchmark (tan), from household survey adjusted to NFP concept (green), and QCEW covered employment seasonally […]

NFP growth beats Bloomberg consensus by 46K (private NFP by 36K). Looking at several measures of NFP (total, private) suggests continued growth. Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment from CES (blue, left scale), from ADP (tan, left scale), total nonfarm payroll employment from CES (bold black, right scale), NFP adjusted for preliminary benchmark by author […]

AbstractThroughout the past 30 years, there has been a lot of controversy surrounding the proliferation of new forms of health care delivery organizations that challenge and compete with general NFP community hospitals. Traditionally, the health care system in the United States has been dominated by general NFP (NFP) voluntary hospitals. With the number of for‐profit general hospitals, physician‐owned specialty hospitals, and ambulatory surgical centers increasing, a question arises: "Why is the general NFP community hospital the dominant model?" In order to address this question, this paper reexamines the history of the hospital industry. By understanding how the "general NFP hospital" model emerged and dominated, we attempt to explain the current dominance of general NFP hospitals in the ever changing hospital industry in the United States.

In a post from Sunday, I noted that NFP employment might be overestimated, but trends were generally aligned. Noting how the Business Employment Dynamics (BED) and Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data have provided different signals, Steven Englander at Standard Charter has calculated how much overstatement there might be. Source: Steven Englander, "How […]