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The author acknowledges support from the Spanish Minister of Science, Innovation and Universities (Grant number: AEI/FEDER CSO2017-85024-C2-1-P) and ICREA under the ICREA Academia programme.

Opinions have differed regarding the accuracy & adequacy of by-elections as opinion barometers. Taking the example of Canada, the question is posed: How well have by-elections forecast the results of the next general election? 3 methods of evaluating the results of a series of by-elections held between general elections are analysed: (1) counting the number of by-election victories & defeats recorded by the gov party, (2) counting the net gain or loss of seats recorded by the gov party, (3) measuring the % of the vote polled by the gov party at each by-election & comparing it to the % won in the previous general election in that district. By the third method of analysis, Canadian by-elections have usually established a broad pattern of prediction. There are 2 basic explanations of why some byelections are poor barometers of nat'l opinion trends. First the district in question may fail to predict its own behavior at the next general election. Second the district may be unrepresentative of the rest of the country. The first explanation may be accounted for by the fact that the 2 types of elections & the issues upon which they are fought are often quite diff. In a general election the question of nat'l leadership is at stake & the campaign tends to be dominated by the personalities of the party leaders, whereas in a by-election the campaign is often fought over a particular local issue. The second explanation involves the question of regional or local issues &the great diff's which may obtain between various districts. However, 'as Canada becomes more pol'ally homogeneous, a by-election, though confined to a single district, is increasingly likely to reflect nat'l opinion trends.'.

The 5 post-WWII elections tend to support March's hypothesis that the parameters of the relationship between seats won & votes cast for a major party are `not far' from those specified by the cube law. But this small distance may have considerable signif, The asymmetry, not taking into account non-size effects, is owed to the strategic or unecon distribution of a party's voting strength-the gerrymander effect, which generally handicaps labor. The logic of March's analysis is that this party will increase its bid for voters in marginal seats. IPSA.

An analysis of the voting behavior of members of the Massachusetts House of Representatives in 2 types of situations: (1) involving _primarily ideological considerations, & (2) involving primarily party loyalty, reveals signif diff's between the Republican & Democratic leadership. The D-leadership is distinguished from the rank & file of the party primarily by a greater fidelity to party discipline; R-leadership, on the other hand, is distinguished by conservatism rather than by strict discipline. IPSA.

Given knowledge of the circumstances of a large Ur minority group (Negroes) in a metropolitan area, & given knowledge of the leadership techniques used by pol'al candidates in an election, 'what kind of leadership can achieve maximum impact under the circumstances of the situation?' The study compares the election techniques of a Republican of the 'rational-manager' type & a Democrat of the 'head-chief' or city-boss type. Data are derived from participant observation & statistics from a series of pre-election surveys. From knowledge of the actual voting patterns, the author indicates some reasons for the success of the Democratic candidate. The successful leader won due to his success among the Negro people (1 in 5 of all persons of voting age) & due to the following voting patterns: Negroes voted along Democratic party lines, in terms of 'their people' rather than for the 'general community welfare'; they were visited personally by precinct captains, & spoke about the candidate in personal terms. These 'interests' were manipulated successfully by the winner despite the fact that his record was less formidable than his Republican opponent. Some tentative hypo's about the voting behavior of Ur Negroes are formulated, & some questions are raised about the relationship between the 'social act of voting' & bribery, & what kinds of Negro leadership used in an advisory capacity lead to what effects. T. L. Blair.

p. 9 ; columns 3–4 ; 11 col. in. ; Ben Rich, a Utah politician, speaks to a Mormon congregation. Generally, one senator from Utah is Mormon, the other non-Mormon. The church discourages its salaried officers from running for election. Mormons lean towards being Republicans, and both senators will be Republican.