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We analyze the influence of IMF and World Bank programs on political regime transitions. We develop an extended version of Acemoglu and Robinson's [American Economic Review 91, 2001] model of political transitions to show how the anticipation of new loans from international financial institutions can trigger political transitions which would not otherwise have taken place. We test this unexplored implication of the theory empirically. We find in a world sample from 1970 to 2002 that the anticipation of receiving new programs immediately after a political regime transition increases the probability of a transition from autocracy to democracy and reduces the probability of democratic survival.

We analyze the influence of IMF and World Bank programs on political regime transitions. We develop an extended version of Acemoglu and Robinson's [American Economic Review 91, 2001] model of political transitions to show how the anticipation of new loans from in-ternational financial institutions can trigger political transitions which would not otherwise have taken place. We test this unexplored implication of the theory empirically. We find in a world sample from 1970 to 2002 that the anticipation of receiving new programs immediately after a political regime transition increases the probability of a transition from autocracy to democracy and reduces the probability of democratic survival.

Intro -- POLITICAL TRANSITION PROCESS: PRESIDENTIAL AND CONGRESSIONAL -- POLITICAL TRANSITION PROCESS: PRESIDENTIAL AND CONGRESSIONAL -- CONTENTS -- PREFACE -- Chapter 1 PRESIDENTIAL TRANSITIONS -- SUMMARY -- INTRODUCTION -- PRESIDENT'S COMMISSION ON CAMPAIGN COSTS -- THE PRESIDENTIAL TRANSITION ACT OF 1963 -- FUNDING UNDER THE PRESIDENTIAL TRANSITION ACT -- Johnson-Nixon Transition -- Nixon-Ford Transition -- Ford-Carter Transition -- Carter-Reagan Transition -- PRESIDENTIAL TRANSITIONS EFFECTIVENESS ACT -- FUNDING UNDER THE PRESIDENTIAL TRANSITIONS EFFECTIVENESS ACT -- Reagan-George H. W. Bush Transition -- George H. W. Bush-Clinton Transition -- PRESIDENTIAL TRANSITION ACT OF 2000 -- NEW PROVISIONS TO FACILITATE THE TRANSITION PROCESS -- Clinton-George W. Bush Transition -- FY2005 TRANSITION FUNDING -- INTELLIGENCE REFORM AND TERRORISM PREVENTION ACT OF 2004 -- FY2009 TRANSITION FUNDING -- ACTIVITIES OF PAST PRESIDENTIAL TRANSITIONS -- Eisenhower-Kennedy Transition -- Johnson-Nixon Transition -- Nixon-Ford Transition -- Ford-Carter Transition -- Carter-Reagan Transition -- Reagan-George H. W. Bush Transition -- George H. W. Bush-Clinton Transition -- Clinton-George W. Bush Transition -- General Considerations -- Adequate Funding -- Pre-election Planning -- Organizational Decisions -- Continuity of the Federal Government -- Setting Priorities in the New Administration -- APPENDIX: TEXT OF PRESIDENTIAL TRANSITION STATUTES PRESIDENTIAL TRANSITION ACT OF 2000: P.L. 106-293, OCTOBER 13, 2000 -- 114 STAT. 1035 -- An Act -- Section 1. Short Title -- Sec. 2. Amendments to Presidential Transition Act of 1963 -- Sec. 3. Report on Improving the Financial Disclosure Process for Presidential Nominees -- PRESIDENTIAL TRANSITIONS EFFECTIVENESS ACT: P.L. 100-398, AUGUST 17, 1988 -- 102 STAT. 985 -- An Act -- Section 1. Short Title.

In this paper we analyze the role of the IMF and the World Bank in triggering changes in the political regime, i.e., democracy and autocracy. We develop a theoretical model which predicts that anticipation of financial flows from international financial institutions may trigger political regime changes which would not take place otherwise. We test the implications of our model empirically and find support both for the role of perfectly foreseen IMF and World Bank programs and of the history of previous World Bank programs. The magnitude of this effects is quite substantial.

In this paper we analyze the role of the IMF and the World Bank in triggering changes in the political regime, i.e., democracy and autocracy. We develop a theoretical model which predicts that anticipation of financial flows from international financial institutions may trigger political regime changes which would not take place otherwise. We test the implications of our model empirically and find support both for the role of perfectly foreseen IMF and World Bank programs and of the history of previous World Bank programs. The magnitude of these effects is not only statistically relevant but also of economic importance.

Der Beitrag entwickelt aus einer Kritik der bisherigen Forschung und Theoriebildung in der Frage der Demokratisierung und des politischen Umbruchs einen eigenen theorieorientierten Rahmen zur Analyse der Übergangsprozesse in Afrika. Für die künftige Forschung verlangt der Autor u.a., diese Übergangsprozesse als historische Entwicklungen zu begreifen, die traditionellen Dimensionen der spezifisch afrikanischen Zivilgesellschaft zu erkennen und einen interdisziplinären Analyseansatz zu verwenden. (DÜI-Kör)

This article examines some of the inadequacies of dominant Western perspectives, especially those originating from the US for studying political transitions in Africa, by focusing on the current democratic transitions. It attributes the major flaws to the hegemonic and ideological interests which these transitions are designed to serve and which underlie approaches made popular by Western scholars, to a 'periodic' conceptualisation of the process of transition itself, to the consequent treatment of transition in an ahistorical manner and the abandonment of previous perspectives of social and political change, and to the failure to relate transitions to the developmental needs of countries involved as determined by the peoples themselves. It discusses how these weaknesses can be overcome and outlines the requirements for a more adequate framework for studying transitions.

When it was formed in September 1999, the middle axis coalition was not seen as a serious political player. However, within a month, the political constellation had shifted in favour of this coalition emerging as a major player in deciding the fate of the next Indonesian government. This article addresses the question of whether there is an emerging Islamic faction with strength, unity and cohesion to affect Indonesia's political transition. It contends that pre-existing tensions and cleavages within Indonesia's Muslim community make such an alliance unlikely beyond the immediate consensus of blocking a Megawati predicency. In the final analysis, this article suggests that the contribution of Muslim groups to a democratisation process in Indonesia remains minimal. (AS J Pol Sc/DÜI)

Since 2011, Myanmar has been undergoing a political transition that, in keeping with the Myanmar government's own claims, has been hailed by many previously critical countries as the start of a process of democratization. Myanmar has become a substantially more liberal country, and in particular its economy has been increasingly liberalized, away from the tight restrictions of the past. However, Myanmar's economic liberalization primarily benefits its entrenched and usually military‐dominated or linked elites, while its political liberalization may be just enough to satisfy an appearance of democratization without the army giving up real power. This article looks at Myanmar's process of political liberalization set against some of the literature on political transitions, and highlights some factors that could militate against extensive reform, much less democratization. It concludes by noting that while Myanmar's military has started to step back from direct political control, it still retains ultimate state authority.

This article discusses political transitions in Brazil in the context of globalization. It focuses on the political legacies that offered resistance to external processes & on the emergence of "new checks & balances" that constituted the relevant conditions for processes of political decision-making from the 1980s to 2002. It also shows that the management of economic policies, combined with the broader political process, was an important dimension of these political transitions. The article concludes by emphasizing the challenges that exist in the treatment of social issues & the connections between the domestic & the international agendas. 6 Tables, 3 Figures, 53 References. [Copyright 2003 Sage Publications Ltd.]