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How should researchers respond to the fairly peculiar terrain of ethnicity presented by transitions in Africa? Should the intensified ethnic conflicts that now appear to hallmark transitions be regarded as inevitable and symptomatic of the continued salience of ethnicity in African politics? Or do transition conflicts and conflict management constitute a different or peculiar strand of the so-called ethnic problem? These are some of the questions addressed in this paper mostly from the perspective of the recent political transitions in Nigeria and South Africa. (InWent/DÜI)

In the midst of rapid socio-political transition, Myanmar is building its telecommunications infrastructure by opening its market to international mobile companies and engaging in national regulatory reform. With one of the lowest internet and mobile subscriber rates in the world, Myanmar faces multiple challenges in building connectivity from both an infrastructural and a policy perspective. Telecom developments could play a significant role in modernizing the country as it emerges from decades of political repression, and although the domestic connectivity plan is moving forward, several challenges need to be dealt with quickly in order to ensure a safe and accessible digital environment. This paper explores connectivity developments in Myanmar, paying particular attention to the opening of the mobile market to international companies, the launch of the new national telecom law, and the development of policies securing digital rights.

This article discusses political transitions in Brazil in the context of globalization. It focuses on the political legacies that offered resistance to external processes and on the emergence of "new checks and balances" that constituted the relevant conditions for processes of political decision-making from the 1980s to 2002. It also shows that the management of economic policies, combined with the broader political process, was an important dimension of these political transitions. The article concludes by emphasizing the challenges that exist in the treatment of social issues and the connections between the domestic and the international agendas.

We analyze the influence of IMF and World Bank programs on political regime transitions. We develop an extended version of Acemoglu and Robinson's [American Economic Review 91, 2001] model of political transitions to show how the anticipation of new loans from international financial institutions can trigger political transitions which would not otherwise have taken place. We test this unexplored implication of the theory empirically. We find that the anticipation of receiving new loan programs immediately after a political regime transition increases the probability of a transition from autocracy to democracy and reduces the probability of democratic survival.

This article proposes revisions to the theory of political transitions by analyzing patterns of recent popular challenges to neopatrimonial rule in Africa. The approach is explicitly comparative, based on contrasts between Africa and the rest of the world and among regimes within Africa itself. Arguing against the prevalent view that transitions unfold unpredictably according to the contingent interplay of key political actors, the authors contend that the structure of the preexisting regime shapes the dynamics and sometimes even the outcomes of political transitions. They find that in contrast to transitions from corporatist regimes, transitions from neopatrimonial rule are likely to be driven by social protest, marked by struggles over patronage, and backed by emerging middle classes. Following Dahl, the authors compare African regimes on the basis of the degree of formal political participation and competition allowed. They find that regime variants—personal dictatorship, military oligarchy, plebiscitary one-party regime, and competitive one-party regime—are associated with distinctive transition dynamics. Whereas transitions from military oligarchies are typically managed from the top down and are relatively orderly, transitions from plebiscitary systems often occur discordantly through confrontational national conferences. A consolidated democracy is least likely to result from the abrupt collapse of a personal dictatorship and is most likely, though never guaranteed, from a graduated transition from a competitive one-party regime. In general, getting to democracy is problematic from all regimes that lack institutional traditions of political competition.

This article analyzes the current political transition in México from the vantage point of civil society. It departs from a definition of the Mexican authoritarian regime, now the oldest in the world, as a model of fusion between the state, the market and society. The crisis of the developmental model and the regime's increasing inability to incorporate the new social actors created by industrialization and urbanization opened up a long period of political crisis whose main content was a process of societal differentiation. The failure of President Salinas' project of neo‐liberal reconstruction of the authoritarian regime deepened the crisis and led to the formation and consolidation of strong national political parties, the beginning of a still unequal, but effective electoral competition and especially to the emergence of several civic groups that are struggling for a democratization that goes beyond electoral politics. The collective identity as civil society of these civic groups has been instrumental for the critique of the regime's gradualist strategy of "permenent electoral reform".

Transition from military rule, 1976-83, to the civilian government elected in Nov. 1983. Possibilities for competing party politics.

Analyzes the institutionalization of political parties, coalitions, and other attributes of democratic government, 1987-90.

This article examines the transition in Argentina from a military government, in power from 1976 to 1983, to the civilian government elected in November 1983. It also discusses the possibilities for competing party politics in the country, relative to the military's new role and Argentina's political structure. The change of regime was distinguished by several features: the swift collapse of the military regime; the military's political bankruptcy when the regime fell; and the unresolved dilemma of the fight against terrorism. Judging from specific data related both to the social structure and the result of the 1983 election, changes are being wrought in the direction of greater modernity.