The 1930's & 1960's were both important turning points in demographic history. An attempt is made to see any r between the experiences of these 2 periods. Theoretical explanations for population trends in this century are analyzed, & a hypothetical explanation for the decline in fertility proposed. Fertility declined almost uninterruptedly in almost all developed nations during the first 3 decades of the 19th century. The transition theory tries to explain the long-term development of fertility & mortality. The transition theory, developed by Warren Thompson, is a modern formulation saying that every population passes through a number of stages in its quantitative development of births & deaths. The final phase of the transition theory, which is that phase of declining fertility, is of interest. The relationship between the demographic transition & social structure or between fertility & SS is discussed. 2 approaches can be distinguished in the sociological study of fertility: a macro-sociological & a micro-sociological approach. Mechanisms influencing individual families in their decisions on reproductive behavior may come from a number of different channels. The influence of SS on fertility is exerted by a complicated mechanism; it is not only a question of income. As for the future development of fertility, there are sufficient indications to make the assumption that the process of demographic transition is near its end; differences in fertility due to religion, region, SS & linguistic criteria are disappearing. The consequences for population policy seem to be an aim at a decrease in fertility. R. Lent.
CHAPTER IN A NEW CHINESE DEMOGRAPHIC REPORT SUGGESTS THAT, FOR CHINA, A POPULATION PLAN IS THE STARTING POINT FOR DRAFTING THE NATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN. THE 3 COMPONENT TARGETS OF A POPULATION PLAN ARE IDENTIFIED AND DISCUSSED: TOTAL POP., BIRTHRATE, RATE OF NATURAL INCREASE. METHODS FOR DEVISING THE PLAN AND GATHERING NECESSARY DATA ARE PRESENTED.
**State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, Moscow, Russian Federation. The views expressed in the paper are those of the author and do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of the United Nations Secretariat. Population decline and population ageing in the Russian Federation During the recent years, the demographic situation in Russia has become a topic of great concern both on the part of the government authorities of the Russian Federation and of mass media. The parliamentary hearings "On the demographic situation in Russia and the measures of the Government of the Russian Federation with respect to its optimisation " have been held in the State Duma this year. The President of Russia Vladimir Putin began his first message to the Federal Assembly with the evaluation of the demographic situation. The Internet Panel on the demographic problems of Russia was held in the Press Centre of the Russian Government in July 2000. The leading Russian demographers took part in the meeting. The individual questions sent by the Internet, demonsrated the growing public interest to the demographic problems of Russia. The increasing crisis phenomena within the demographic development of Russia has forced the Russian Government to take into account the estimations and projections of experts and scientists and when developing the Main directions of the long-term socio-economic policy of the Government of the Russian Federation to take into consideration the fact that these are the