Suchergebnisse

CHAPTER IN A NEW CHINESE DEMOGRAPHIC REPORT SUGGESTS THAT, FOR CHINA, A POPULATION PLAN IS THE STARTING POINT FOR DRAFTING THE NATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN. THE 3 COMPONENT TARGETS OF A POPULATION PLAN ARE IDENTIFIED AND DISCUSSED: TOTAL POP., BIRTHRATE, RATE OF NATURAL INCREASE. METHODS FOR DEVISING THE PLAN AND GATHERING NECESSARY DATA ARE PRESENTED.

Generations born today, or at least are trying to be, are scarcer than before all over the world. This decrease in the number of children is affecting modern societies in many spheres. If it was to be supported by efficient policies, it could be the source of a general improvement of life conditions. However, if this phenomenon continues or becomes drastic, it could ultimately lead to slower or faster demographic ageing, which could endanger many social heritages. Public intervention must, in that case, impinge much deeper, but without guarantees for a complete, if not permanent, success. The introductory part of the article is dedicated to the concept "demographic revolution" which was developed in 1934 by the French politician and demographer Adolphe Landry, in order to mark the development of a demographic regime which is characterized by a universally accepted practice of birth control, which represents a response for the essential concern for life standard improvement, not only for the parents but their children as well. But then, birth control is the primary cause of population ageing. The article further presents some of the most striking traits of the current French demographic situation, as its future development. France has a positive balance of population exchange with the remaining part of the world, as most of the Western European countries, but still the greatest part of its demographic increase is obtained from a larger number of births than deaths. Because of this, France is often seen as a real demographic paradise in Europe, whose population is decreasing and ageing. This image is certainly flattering, but it is becoming very contradictory after an analysis of long-term trends of fertility indicators and population ageing. The third part of the article, with the situation in France in focus, investigates the modalities and limitations of activities which a society, faced with demographic ageing and decreasing number of children, can apply: policies or simple "adjusting along the way" to demographic processes measures; policies and measures which are more intervening - even in the completely private sphere of birth-giving, and directed towards the limitation of some very unfavorable effects and not towards the change of strongly expressed tendencies of population ageing.

The 1930's & 1960's were both important turning points in demographic history. An attempt is made to see any r between the experiences of these 2 periods. Theoretical explanations for population trends in this century are analyzed, & a hypothetical explanation for the decline in fertility proposed. Fertility declined almost uninterruptedly in almost all developed nations during the first 3 decades of the 19th century. The transition theory tries to explain the long-term development of fertility & mortality. The transition theory, developed by Warren Thompson, is a modern formulation saying that every population passes through a number of stages in its quantitative development of births & deaths. The final phase of the transition theory, which is that phase of declining fertility, is of interest. The relationship between the demographic transition & social structure or between fertility & SS is discussed. 2 approaches can be distinguished in the sociological study of fertility: a macro-sociological & a micro-sociological approach. Mechanisms influencing individual families in their decisions on reproductive behavior may come from a number of different channels. The influence of SS on fertility is exerted by a complicated mechanism; it is not only a question of income. As for the future development of fertility, there are sufficient indications to make the assumption that the process of demographic transition is near its end; differences in fertility due to religion, region, SS & linguistic criteria are disappearing. The consequences for population policy seem to be an aim at a decrease in fertility. R. Lent.