Stochastic Choice and Preference Reversals
In: University of Zurich, Department of Economics, Working Paper No. 370, Revised version
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In: University of Zurich, Department of Economics, Working Paper No. 370, Revised version
SSRN
Working paper
In: Social behavior and personality: an international journal, Band 39, Heft 7, S. 947-954
ISSN: 1179-6391
We examined how perceptual fluency affects risk preference judgments and explored 1 important boundary condition for its effect. All participants were presented with a lottery scenario that required them to choose between a lottery ticket and a coupon that they could redeem when making
a purchase or to set a price at which they would sell the same lottery ticket. Perceptual fluency was elicited by asking participants to read the scenario set out in a way that was either easy or difficult to understand. The results showed that when the likelihood of getting a desirable outcome
was relatively high, participants who experienced decreased perceptual fluency tended to be risk aversive in the choice task but risk seeking in the pricing task. Accordingly, several mechanisms are discussed that potentially underlie this preference reversal effect along with theoretical
and practical implications of our findings.
In: Kyklos: international review for social sciences, Band 58, Heft 2, S. 177-194
ISSN: 1467-6435
SummaryPreference Reversal Phenomenon (PRP) has been most often scrutinized as a puzzle of 'preferences', while the discovery of the 'endowment effect' explicitly questions the parity between preference and price. The author's experiment (N = 186) connects these two extraordinary findings and illustrates that PRP is only a reversal of price in a 'market.' PRP merely proves that subjects demand to be compensated based on loss under market access deprivation when a 'maximum buying'/'minimum selling' price is elicited, and preference transitivity is restored once the misleading market manipulation is experimentally controlled.By defending preference transitivity, the author asserts that normal access to the bargaining process is indispensable for a competitive market where preference price parity is required.To make valid measurements of preference and price, the sealed envelope method is substituted for the judged‐indifferent‐point (JIP) method, and the binding statement method is substituted for the Becker‐DeGroot‐Marschack method. McNemar test scores are calculated to compare the effects of different methods.
In: Journal of risk and uncertainty, Band 39, Heft 3, S. 237-250
ISSN: 1573-0476
In: The economic journal: the journal of the Royal Economic Society, Band 114, Heft 497, S. 709-726
ISSN: 1468-0297
In: Journal of risk and uncertainty, Band 52, Heft 1, S. 65-97
ISSN: 1573-0476
In: Working paper series 8813
In: Journal of risk and uncertainty, Band 29, Heft 3, S. 207-218
ISSN: 1573-0476
In: Michael O'Donnell, Ellen R. K. Evers (2019), "Preference Reversals in Willingness to Pay and Choice," Journal of Consumer Research, 45, 6 (April), 1315–1330
SSRN
In: Journal of risk and uncertainty, Band 64, Heft 1, S. 19-41
ISSN: 1573-0476
AbstractIntertemporal preference reversals occur when individuals choose future option A over future option B in a direct choice between the two but place a higher 'immediate cash' value on B than on A. Tversky et al. (1990) reported strong evidence of such reversals, which they attributed mainly to valuation biases rather than intransitivity. We find similar levels of reversals, even after adjusting for considerable degrees of variability and imprecision in people's responses. However, we disagree with Tversky et al.'s conclusions about the causes of the majority of these reversals. We find substantial levels of intransitivity in respondents' binary choices as well as differential overvaluation of both options relative to the values inferred from their choices.
In: Journal of consumer research: JCR ; an interdisciplinary journal, Band 45, Heft 6, S. 1315-1330
ISSN: 1537-5277
Abstract
A fundamental contribution of consumer behavior research is to help marketing scholars develop an understanding of how people think about and express their preferences. In this article we find that two commonly used preference elicitation procedures, willingness to pay (WTP) and choice, are consistently associated with different expressed preferences. Specifically, choices are associated with a relatively greater preference for hedonic goods, while WTP is associated with a relatively greater preference for utilitarian goods. We find that this is caused, in part, by the greater reliance on deliberation in determining WTP values, while preferences in choices are determined by an affect heuristic. Unlike other choice and WTP preference reversals, we find that this effect is not caused by mechanical determinants such as scale compatibility, as the effect persists with continuous scale measures that rely on affect and with choice-based scale measures that rely on determining valuation.
In: Management Science, forthcoming
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In: Thinking and Reasoning, Band 5, Heft 2, S. 175-188
Research on preference reversals has demonstrated a disproportionate influence of outcome probability on choices between monetary gambles. The aim was to investigate the hypothesis that this is a prominence effect originally demonstrated for riskless choice. Another aim was to test the structure compatibility hypothesis as an explanation of the effect. The hypothesis implies that probability should be the prominent attribute when compared with value attributes both in a choice and a preference–rating procedure. In Experiment 1, two groups of undergraduates were presented with medical treatments described by two value attributes (effectiveness and pain-relief). All participants performed both a matching task and made preference ratings. In the latter task, outcome probabilities were added to the descriptions of the medical treatments for one of the groups. In line with the hypothesis, this reduced the prominence effect on the preference ratings observed for effectiveness. In Experiment 2, a matching task was used to demonstrate that probability was considered more important by a group of participating undergraduates than the value attributes. Furthermore, in both choices and preference ratings the expected prominence effect was found for probability.
In: American economic review, Band 97, Heft 1, S. 277-297
ISSN: 1944-7981
In: Marketing theory, Band 7, Heft 1, S. 27-38
ISSN: 1741-301X
Two studies demonstrated preference reversals using consumer products. Some subjects made a choice between a pair of food or hygiene products while others assigned minimum selling prices to each product. Product pairs were selected such that one item had a high market price but was undesirable (e.g. eggplant roulettes) while the other item had a low market price but was desirable (e.g. a can of soda). As predicted, most subjects choose the low market price/desirable item, but the high market price/undesirable item was assigned a higher minimum selling price. Experiment 1 used a hypothetical questionnaire, while in Experiment 2 responses had real consequences. The results suggest a market value heuristic such that when decision makers are unsure of how to translate their preference into a specific dollar amount they substitute the product's market price for their own preference. The implication of this heuristic is that if merchants consistently set the retail price of a particular product at a certain level, consumers will use that retail price as the basis of their pricing evaluations and will come to value the product at the retail price.