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Risk and time are intertwined. The present is known while the future is inherently risky. This is problematic when studying time preferences since uncontrolled risk can generate apparently present-biased behavior. We systematically manipulate risk in an intertemporal choice experiment. Discounted expected utility performs well with risk, but when certainty is added common ratio predictions fail sharply. The data cannot be explained by prospect theory, hyperbolic discounting, or preferences for resolution of uncertainty, but seem consistent with a direct preference for certainty. The data suggest strongly a difference between risk and time preferences. (JEL C91 D81 D91)

Blitzumfrage zur Koalitionspräferenz.

Themen: Präferierte Regierungskoalition bzw. Regierungspartei in
Abhängigkeit von der personellen Zusammensetzung des Kabinetts;
Parteipräferenz.

Demographie: Alter (klassiert); Geschlecht; Konfession; Schulbildung;
Berufsausbildung; Haushaltseinkommen.

Can the well-known experimental phenomenon of present-bias in intertemporal choice be confounded with the risks associated with receiving payment? Can measurements of risk preferences be used to represent desires for smoothness in intertemporal payments? In our two 2012 papers in this journal we explored these two questions and found the answer to the first to be yes and the second to be no. We feel the three papers inspired by our work and published here underscore these arguments and point to interesting new possibilities for modeling and measuring risk over time. (JEL C91, D81, D91)

1: Binary Relations: Definitions, Representations, Basic Properties -- 1.1. Binary relations -- 1.2. Graph representation of binary relations -- 1.3. Coding the binary relations -- 1.4. Matrix representation of binary relations -- 1.5. Basic properties of binary relations -- 1.6. Particular binary relations -- 1.7. Graph interpretation of the properties -- 1.8. Algebraic interpretation of the properties -- 1.9. References -- 2: The Concept of Preference Structure -- 2.1. Preference, indifference, incomparability -- 2.2. Preference structure -- 2.3. Important agreement -- 2.4. Characteristic relation of a preference structure -- 2.5. Graph representation of a preference structure -- 2.6. Coding the preference structure -- 2.7. Example -- 2.8. References -- 3: Usual Preference Structures -- 3.1. Tournament structure -- 3.2. Total order structure -- 3.3. Weak order structure -- 3.4. Total interval order structure -- 3.5. Total semiorder structure -- 3.6. Partial order structure -- 3.7. Quasi order structure -- 3.8. References -- 4: Two New Preference Structures -- 4.1. Partial interval order structure -- 4.2. Partial semiorder structure -- 4.3. References -- 5: Complete Valued Preference Structures -- 5.1. Definition -- 5.2. Important remark -- 5.3. Particular case -- 5.4. Graph representation -- 5.5. Matridal representation -- 5.6. Particular complete valued preference structures -- 5.7. Binary relations and various properties related to a complete valued preference structure -- 5.8. Characterizations of the families defined in section 5.6.. -- 5.9. Functional representation of a valued preference structure -- 5.10. Roberts homogeneous families of semiorders -- 5.11. Families of weak orders -- 5.12. Summary -- 5.13. Examples -- 5.14. References -- 6: Complete Two-Valued Preference Structures -- 6.1. Introduction -- 6.2. Two-valued preference structures with constant thresholds -- 6.3. Example -- 6.4. References.