PROVOCATIONS
In: The Washington quarterly, Band 23, Heft 3, S. 5-6
ISSN: 0163-660X, 0147-1465
In: The Washington quarterly, Band 23, Heft 3, S. 5-6
ISSN: 0163-660X, 0147-1465
In: World policy journal: WPJ, Band 35, Heft 2, S. 124-129
ISSN: 1936-0924
In: The journal of conflict resolution: journal of the Peace Science Society (International), Band 65, Heft 2-3, S. 372-402
ISSN: 1552-8766
Threats and force, by increasing expected costs, should reduce the target's resolve. However, they often seem to increase resolve. We label this phenomenon provocation. We review instances of apparent provocation in interstate relations and offer a theory based on the logic of reputation and honor. We also consider alternative explanations: confounding or mis-imputation of resolve; revelation of information, character, or capabilities; or generalized sunk cost reasoning. Using survey experiments, we systematically evaluate whether provocation exists and what may account for it. We employ design-based causal inference techniques—a hypothetical natural experiment, a placebo treatment, and ruling out mediators—to evaluate our key hypotheses. We find strong evidence of provocation and suggestive evidence that it arises from considerations of honor, vengeance, and reputation. Our experimental design minimizes the risk that this result arises from our alternative explanations.
World Affairs Online
In: Criminal Law Bulletin, Band 46, S. 1097
SSRN
In: Criminal Law Review, Band 2014, Heft 2, S. 109-125
SSRN
In: The journal of conflict resolution: journal of the Peace Science Society (International), Band 65, Heft 2-3, S. 372-402
ISSN: 1552-8766
Threats and force, by increasing expected costs, should reduce the target's resolve. However, they often seem to increase resolve. We label this phenomenon provocation. We review instances of apparent provocation in interstate relations and offer a theory based on the logic of reputation and honor. We also consider alternative explanations: confounding or mis-imputation of resolve; revelation of information, character, or capabilities; or generalized sunk cost reasoning. Using survey experiments, we systematically evaluate whether provocation exists and what may account for it. We employ design-based causal inference techniques—a hypothetical natural experiment, a placebo treatment, and ruling out mediators—to evaluate our key hypotheses. We find strong evidence of provocation and suggestive evidence that it arises from considerations of honor, vengeance, and reputation. Our experimental design minimizes the risk that this result arises from our alternative explanations.
This masterful political treatise, first published in 1962, examines the history and nature of Communism as it developed in the Soviet Union and in Poland. Józef Mackiewicz, known for his relentless opposition to Communism, argues that accommodation with the Communists simply helped them to impose their vision of the world and pursue their goal of global domination. He compares Communism to Nazism and insists that the former was the greater threat to the future of humanity. Now available in English for the first time, The Triumph of Provocation will be compelling reading for those interested in Polish history, Communism, and Nazism.Mackiewicz's unique interpretation of the differences and similarities between Communism and Nazism is highly relevant to debates about these two systems and to major contemporary issues which are of particular importance to the U.S. and Europe, including radical Islam and the necessity of war and the responsibility for war
In: The Washington quarterly, Band 25, Heft 1, S. 5-40
ISSN: 0163-660X, 0147-1465
Explores how response to international terrorism will change US foreign policy and the world; 3 articles. Contents: Globalization's first war, by Kurt M. Campbell; The end of unilateralism or unilateralism redux? by Steven E. Miller; The imbalance of terror, by Thérèse Delpech.
In: Bulletin of the atomic scientists, Band 44, Heft 7, S. 63-64
ISSN: 1938-3282
In: Bulletin of the atomic scientists, Band 44, Heft 3, S. 2-2
ISSN: 1938-3282
In: Survival: global politics and strategy, Band 11, Heft 11, S. 355
ISSN: 0039-6338
This political treatise examines the history and nature of Communism as it developed in the Soviet Union and in Poland. The author argues that accommodation with the Communists simply helped them to impose their vision of the world and pursue their goal of global domination.