Suchergebnisse

Cet article analyse brièvement les cultures politiques respectives des deux grands camps en présence dans le champ politique taiwanais après quatre années de recomposition idéologique à Taiwan depuis le retour du Kuomintang (KMT) à la Présidence en 2008. Répondant à l'article publié par le même auteur et dans les mêmes conditions post-électorales en 2008 sur ce même site, la présente analyse fait le point les différences réelles entre le parti tenté par l'unification future entre les deux rives, le Kuomintang, et le Parti Démocrate Progressiste (PDP). ; This article aims at clarifying the differences between the Kuomintang, the Chinese national party based on Taiwan, tempted by conditional unification with China, and the DPP, the indigenous pro-Taiwan party. After showing how these two parties share a basic common understanding of the Republic of China on Taiwan as being a sovereign entity, this paper shows where are the true lines of demarcation between the two political forces: on the ultimate goals on terms of nation building, on social policy and on the best way to negotiate with an ever growing China. The article questions the reasons behind the obvious diminished importance of the national identity debate in the 2012 elections, and shows that the vote for Ma Ying-jeou, in 2012 just as in 2008, is not equivalent to a vote for China, nor to a vote for unification. Last, it tries to understand what are the reasons that led swing voters, who hesitated until the last moment, to finally decide to give a second mandate to a President that is not anymore popular, and who is generally not considered by most of them as being very competent.

The measure of political mobility (PM) among French citizens which has emerged from the statistics of successive elections makes possible an estimate of the permanent instability of the French multi-party system. That which is called 'the rate of mobility' is calculated as follows: an estimate is made of the % of votes for each list of electors in the elections under consideration & of the % of abstentions; the diff between the %'s in each election is then calculated & these diff's totaled up. A comparison between the 'rate of mobility' in France on the one hand & Switzerland & the US on the other indicates that the rate is much higher in France. 3 other features of French PM are further evident in such studies: (1) the shifts in opinion are due to pol'al conversion rather than to the periodic mobilization of non-voters (as is the case in the US during presidential elections); (2) PM in France is cumulative; there is no stable structure here, as in Switzerland, which would allow the pendulum to swing back (a redistribution of power among a pre-determined number of party members); & (3) the number of parties increases this tendency toward PM in France, though such mobility is not inevitably the result of such a multiplicity of parties. Tr by J. A. Broussard from IPSA.