Targeting and universalism in poverty reduction
In: Social policy and development 23
In: Social policy and development 23
Target inflation is a monetary policy's strategy which is characterized by pronounced inflation in terms of a rate. The operationalization of monetary policy gives a major role for forecasting inflation and a high level of transparency. Target inflation was introduced in New-Zeeland in 1990; it gave very satisfied results in terms of inflation stability and reel economy. Later than, roughly 25 industrialized and emergent countries have adopted this strategy. This paper aims to develop and give definition, history, conditions and effects of target inflation's strategy ; Le ciblage d'inflation est une stratégie de politique monétaire qui se caractérise par une cible d'inflation chiffrée annoncée, une mise en œuvre de la politique monétaire qui donne un rôle majeur à la prévision de l'inflation et un degré élevé de transparence. Le ciblage d'inflation a été introduit en Nouvelle-Zélande en 1990 et a été couronné par des résultats satisfaisants en termes de stabilisation de l'inflation et de l'économie réelle. Par la suite, environ 25 pays industrialisés et émergents l'ont adopté. Cet article aborde la définition, l'histoire, les conditions ainsi que les effets d'un ciblage de l'inflation
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In: Politique étrangère: PE ; revue trimestrielle publiée par l'Institut Français des Relations Internationales, Heft 2, S. 461-462
ISSN: 0032-342X
This thesis analyzes the inflation targeting policy in emerging economies. To be more specific, the developments of this thesis aimed to investigate the conduct, efficiency and performance of the policy of monetary strategy in an instability context. Therefore, we proceed in two steps. First, we study the conduct rule of the inflation targeting policy (Chapter 1), showing how this notion of optimal rule should guide the behaviour of the Central Bank in its decisions of monetary policy, in order to achieve the inflation goal, by emphasizing the role of transparency and credibility of the monetary policy, as a performance criterion, by evaluating the different experiences of the emerging countries that have adopted an inflation targeting and have been able to strengthen the effectiveness of the monetary regime (Chapter 2). Then, in a second step, we distinguish periods of pre-targeting and post-targeting to evaluate the performance of this policy. Thus, we show that inflation targeting is economically efficient if it generates an environmental stability of monetary policy (Chapter 3). Finally, we analyze the efficiency and performance of the inflation targeting policy in emerging economies in times of crisis, taking into account the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 that produced the worst global recession since the 1930s (Chapter 4). We are developing an econometric approach based on a dynamic panel data in order to study the degree of stability of the economic environment targeted countries in a context of instability. Our results show a significant difference in inflation performance with macro-economic performances in a global economic environment characterized by a global financial crisis, and that these differences are generally attributable to the choice of the strategy of monetary policy. ; La présente thèse analyse la politique de ciblage de l'inflation au sein des économies émergentes. Plus précisément, les développements de cette thèse visent à étudier la conduite, l'efficacité et la performance de ...
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This thesis analyzes the inflation targeting policy in emerging economies. To be more specific, the developments of this thesis aimed to investigate the conduct, efficiency and performance of the policy of monetary strategy in an instability context. Therefore, we proceed in two steps. First, we study the conduct rule of the inflation targeting policy (Chapter 1), showing how this notion of optimal rule should guide the behaviour of the Central Bank in its decisions of monetary policy, in order to achieve the inflation goal, by emphasizing the role of transparency and credibility of the monetary policy, as a performance criterion, by evaluating the different experiences of the emerging countries that have adopted an inflation targeting and have been able to strengthen the effectiveness of the monetary regime (Chapter 2). Then, in a second step, we distinguish periods of pre-targeting and post-targeting to evaluate the performance of this policy. Thus, we show that inflation targeting is economically efficient if it generates an environmental stability of monetary policy (Chapter 3). Finally, we analyze the efficiency and performance of the inflation targeting policy in emerging economies in times of crisis, taking into account the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 that produced the worst global recession since the 1930s (Chapter 4). We are developing an econometric approach based on a dynamic panel data in order to study the degree of stability of the economic environment targeted countries in a context of instability. Our results show a significant difference in inflation performance with macro-economic performances in a global economic environment characterized by a global financial crisis, and that these differences are generally attributable to the choice of the strategy of monetary policy. ; La présente thèse analyse la politique de ciblage de l'inflation au sein des économies émergentes. Plus précisément, les développements de cette thèse visent à étudier la conduite, l'efficacité et la performance de ...
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This document is a brief presentation of the french "renewable energy vouchers", tools of targeting for individual subsidy given by some french local government institutions. ; Le document est une présentation brève des "chèques énergie renouvelables", outils de ciblage et de flêchage des subventions individuelles délivrées par les collectivités locales françaises.
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This document is a brief presentation of the french "renewable energy vouchers", tools of targeting for individual subsidy given by some french local government institutions. ; Le document est une présentation brève des "chèques énergie renouvelables", outils de ciblage et de flêchage des subventions individuelles délivrées par les collectivités locales françaises.
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This document is a brief presentation of the french "renewable energy vouchers", tools of targeting for individual subsidy given by some french local government institutions. ; Le document est une présentation brève des "chèques énergie renouvelables", outils de ciblage et de flêchage des subventions individuelles délivrées par les collectivités locales françaises.
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this article aims to provide an overview of the targeting of inflation forecasts to enhance credibility and maintain sustainable stability. We show how the targeting of inflation forecasts is a transparent approach and an ideal strategy for monetary policy. Moreover, understanding of the general public would be essential to foster trust and ensure the effectiveness of monetary policy. To this end, firm management of expectations and transparent communication are important. ; Cet article vise à donner un aperçu du ciblage des prévisions d'inflation pour renforcer la crédibilité et maintenir une stabilité durable. Nous montrons en quoi le ciblage des prévisions d'inflation est une approche transparente et une stratégie idéale pour la politique monétaire. De plus, la compréhension du grand public serait essentielle pour favoriser la confiance et assurer l'efficacité de la politique monétaire. Pour ce faire, une gestion ferme des anticipations et une communication transparente sont importantes.
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Inflation targeting is the most recent framework for monetary policy in the world. It is now widely chosen by developed countries as well as by emerging countries. In this logic, that the will of the Moroccan monetary authorities to adopt this new regime fits. However, it has been shown in the literature that adopting this new framework of logic monetary policy requires meeting a set of economic, technical and institutional prerequisites. In this article, we study the institutional prerequisites in the Moroccan context. In particular, it is a question of measuring the degree of readiness of the Moroccan central bank to target inflation. To achieve this, we measured the degree of independence of the central bank from the government. This independence is generally measured in both legal and real dimensions. The first is to assess the statutes of the central bank to give it a score in this direction. As for real independence, it is measured by the turnover rate of the governors appointed to head the issuing institute, and their political vulnerability when governments change. At the end of this study, we noted that the two calculated indices, which allow us to consider that the degree of real and legal independence of the Moroccan central bank, is positioned today in an acceptable level, which will be able to consolidate the chances. The success of the Moroccan monetary authorities as part of their transition project towards inflation targeting. JEL Classification : E52 E58 Paper type: Empirical research ; Le ciblage de l'inflation est le cadre le plus récent de la politique monétaire dans le monde. Il est désormais largement choisi par les pays développés ainsi que par les pays émergents. C'est dans cette logique que s'inscrit la volonté des autorités monétaires marocaines d'adopter ce nouveau régime. Cependant, il a été démontré dans la littérature que l'adoption de ce nouveau cadre de la politique monétaire nécessite la satisfaction d'un ensemble de prérequis économiques, techniques et institutionnels. Nous étudions dans le cadre de cet article les prérequis institutionnels dans le contexte marocain. Il s'agit de mesurer plus particulièrement, le degré de disposition de la banque centrale marocaine pour cibler l'inflation. Pour y arriver, nous avons mesuré le degré d'indépendance de la banque centrale du gouvernement. Cette indépendance se mesure généralement dans les deux dimensions légale et réelle. La première consiste à évaluer les statuts de la banque centrale pour lui attribuer un score dans ce sens. Pour ce qui est de l'indépendance réelle, elle se mesure par le taux de rotation des gouverneurs nommés à la tête de l'institut d'émission et la vulnérabilité politique de ces derniers, à l'occasion du changement des gouvernements. À l'issue de cette étude, nous avons constaté que les indices calculés permettent de considérer que le degré d'indépendance réelle et légale de la banque centrale marocaine se positionne aujourd'hui dans un niveau acceptable, qui pourra consolider les chances de réussite des autorités monétaires marocaines dans le cadre de leur chantier de transition vers le ciblage d'inflation. Classification JEL : E52 E58 Type de papier: Recherche empirique
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This work analyses the targeting performance and the impact evaluation of three projects. The first paper is about the water subsidies in the Republic of Congo. The study shows that the self-targeting scheme, using an Inverse Block Tariff structure has poor performance, indeed only those households who are connected can benefit from it, and they are usually non-poor. The self-targeting mechanism used in the Public Work program in Liberia works better since the proportion of poor involved in the program is high. This project has no entry barrier which partly explains the good result. The targeting performance of the Modernization of Agriculture project in the DRC is also poor, most of the beneficiaries being non-poor. The impact in terms of poverty reduction is important in both projects involved in this type of analysis (Modernization of Agriculture in the DRC and Public Work in Liberia), at least for the beneficiaries. The case of the DRC project, however, shows that it is important to lift some other constraints like access to credit and infrastructures in order to improve the impact of the program. ; Ce travail est consacré à l'évaluation des performances de ciblage et à l'analyse d'impact de trois projets. La première étude porte sur l'accès à l'eau courante en République du Congo ; et l'auto-ciblage pratiqué à travers une tarification spécifique ne bénéficie qu'aux ménages connectés qui sont plutôt non pauvres. L'auto-ciblage fonctionne mieux pour le projet des travaux publics au Libéria ; la proportion de pauvres qui participent à ces travaux est élevée. En fait ce projet n'a aucune barrière à l'entrée, ce qui explique en partie ce bon résultat. Le ciblage du programme de modernisation agricole en RDC n'est pas très efficace non plus, les bénéficiaires n'étant souvent pas pauvres. L'impact en termes de réduction de la pauvreté est important dans les deux projets concernés par ce type d'analyse (modernisation agricole en RDC et travaux publics au Libéria), tout au moins pour les populations bénéficiaires. ...
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This work analyses the targeting performance and the impact evaluation of three projects. The first paper is about the water subsidies in the Republic of Congo. The study shows that the self-targeting scheme, using an Inverse Block Tariff structure has poor performance, indeed only those households who are connected can benefit from it, and they are usually non-poor. The self-targeting mechanism used in the Public Work program in Liberia works better since the proportion of poor involved in the program is high. This project has no entry barrier which partly explains the good result. The targeting performance of the Modernization of Agriculture project in the DRC is also poor, most of the beneficiaries being non-poor. The impact in terms of poverty reduction is important in both projects involved in this type of analysis (Modernization of Agriculture in the DRC and Public Work in Liberia), at least for the beneficiaries. The case of the DRC project, however, shows that it is important to lift some other constraints like access to credit and infrastructures in order to improve the impact of the program. ; Ce travail est consacré à l'évaluation des performances de ciblage et à l'analyse d'impact de trois projets. La première étude porte sur l'accès à l'eau courante en République du Congo ; et l'auto-ciblage pratiqué à travers une tarification spécifique ne bénéficie qu'aux ménages connectés qui sont plutôt non pauvres. L'auto-ciblage fonctionne mieux pour le projet des travaux publics au Libéria ; la proportion de pauvres qui participent à ces travaux est élevée. En fait ce projet n'a aucune barrière à l'entrée, ce qui explique en partie ce bon résultat. Le ciblage du programme de modernisation agricole en RDC n'est pas très efficace non plus, les bénéficiaires n'étant souvent pas pauvres. L'impact en termes de réduction de la pauvreté est important dans les deux projets concernés par ce type d'analyse (modernisation agricole en RDC et travaux publics au Libéria), tout au moins pour les populations bénéficiaires. ...
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Turkey has adopted an implicit inflation targeting regime between 2002 and 2005, and then inflation targeting became explicit since 2006. My thesis's objective is to examine the credibility and efficiency of this monetary policy and to see whether it has improved the credibility of Central Bank of Republic of Turkey. This policy change has proved to be efficient in the early years: the seigniorage effect has significantly decreased, the inflation rate has fallen below 10% and growth rate of GDP was over 6%. Our study demonstrates theoretically it is a monetary policy, which avoids the inflationary bias and combines various measures of credibility improvement. Credibility is measured by inflation expectations. The empirical analysis of inflation expectations is based on errors of prevision. Our results shows that the expectations are adaptive and private agents' errors are smaller and smaller in time. The decreasing yield curve indicates that the financial markets anticipate a disinflation between 2002 and 2005, but the curve increases again in 2006. These findings indicate that certain credibility has been provided but it is fragile. The econometric analysis by VECM of joint process of Central Bank's and secondary market's key rates points out the existence of a long term equilibrium rate defined by Central Bank. Seo tests result that the unfavorable geopolitical shocks didn't affect the rates' dynamics but the opening of the negotiations for Turkey to join the EU enhanced the efficiency of monetary policy ; La Turquie a adopté une politique de ciblage d'inflation d'abord implicite (entre 2002 et 2005), ensuite explicite à partir de 2006. L'objectif de ma thèse est d'étudier la crédibilité et l'efficacité de cette politique et de chercher à voir si elle a pu améliorer le degré de crédibilité de la Banque Centrale de Turquie. Cette politique fait ses preuves dans les premières années: effet du seigneuriage réduit de façon significative, taux d'inflation au-dessous de 10%, croissance supérieure à 6%. On montre ...
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This thesis deals with the adoption of inflation targeting policy in considering the economic and financial characteristics of the emerging economies. Since its first adoption in 1990, the inflation targeting showed its efficiency by limiting the sharp rise in prices and by favoring the economic growth. However, for emerging markets, the improvement of their economic performance remains very low. This is due to the characteristics of these economies and to their economic and financial vulnerability.The theoretical approach of this thesis investigates the impact of two of these characteristics, the commercial dependence and the financial dependence, on the choice of the monetary policy.The results show that the optimal monetary policy for the emerging economy Central Bank is the inflation targeting policy which limits the transmission of the imported inflation to the level of the domestic prices. The empirical approach of this thesis shows, on the one hand, that the inflation targeting policy was efficient in the emerging and developed economies and the other hand, that a robust monetary, budgetary and financial system limits the volatility of inflation ; Cette thèse s'intéresse à étudier la politique de ciblage de l'inflation compte tenu des caractéristiques économiques et financières des économies émergentes. Depuis sa première adoption en adoption en 1990, la politique de ciblage de l'inflation a montré son efficacité en limitant la flambée des prix et en favorisant la croissance économique. Cependant, pour les marchés émergents, l'amélioration de leur performance économique reste faible par rapport aux économies développées. Ce résultat est du principalement aux caractéristiques de ces économies et à leur vulnérabilité économique et financière. Ce travail explore l'impact de deux importantes caractéristiques des marchés émergents, sur le choix de la politique monétaire. Il s'agit de la dépendance commerciale et de la dépendance financière. L'approche théorique de cette thèse montre que la Banque Centrale des ...
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