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Popular guide to options pricing and position sizing for quant traders. In this second edition of this bestselling book, Sinclair offers a quantitative model for measuring volatility in order to gain an edge in everyday option trading endeavors. With an accessible, straightforward approach, he guides traders through the basics of option pricing, volatility measurement, hedging, money management, and trade evaluation. This new edition includes new chapters on the dynamics of realized and implied volatilities, trading the variance premium and using options to trade special situations in equity markets. * Filled with volatility models including brand new option trades for quant traders * Options trader Euan Sinclair specializes in the design and implementation of quantitative trading strategies. Volatility Trading, Second Edition + Website outlines strategies for defining a true edge in the market using options to trade volatility profitably.

While outsourcing of production from the U.S. to Mexico has been hailed in Mexico as a valuable engine of growth, recently there have been misgivings regarding its fickleness and volatility. This paper is among the first in the trade literature to study the second moment properties of outsourcing. We begin by documenting a new stylized fact: the maquiladora outsourcing industries in Mexico experience fluctuations in value added that are roughly twice as volatile as the corresponding industries in the U.S. A difference-in-difference method is extended to second moments to verify the statistical significance of this finding. We then develop a stochastic model of outsourcing with heterogeneous firms that can explain this volatility. The model employs two novel mechanisms: an extensive margin in outsourcing which responds endogenously to transmit shocks internationally, and translog preferences which modulate firm entry.

The Volatility Smile -- The Black-Scholes-Merton options model was the greatest innovation of 20th Century finance, and remains the most widely applied theory in all of finance. Despite this success, the model is fundamentally at odds with the observed behavior of option markets: a graph of implied volatilities against strike will typically display a curve or skew, which practitioners refer to as the smile, and which the model cannot explain. Option valuation is not a solved problem, and the past forty years have witnessed an abundance of new models that try to reconcile theory with markets. The Volatility Smile presents a unified treatment of the Black-Scholes-Merton model and the more advanced models that have replaced it. It is also a book about the principles of financial valuation and how to apply them. Celebrated author and quant Emanuel Derman and Michael B. Miller explain not just the mathematics but the ideas behind the models. By examining the foundations, the implementation, and the pros and cons of various models, and by carefully exploring their derivations and their assumptions, readers will learn not only how to handle the volatility smile but how to evaluate and build their own financial models. Topics covered include: The principles of valuation Static and dynamic replication The Black-Scholes-Merton model Hedging strategies Transaction costs The behavior of the volatility smile Implied distributions Local volatility models Stochastic volatility models Jump-diffusion models.

This paper analyzes volatility spillovers in multivariate GARCH-type models. We show that the cross-effects between the conditional variances determine the persistence of the transmitted volatility innovations. In particular, the effect of a foreign volatility innovation on a conditional variance is even more persistent than the effect of an own innovation unless it is offset by an accompanying negative variance spillover of sufficient size. Moreover, ignoring a negative variance spillover causes a downward bias in the estimate of the initial impact of the foreign volatility innovation. Applying the concept to portfolios of small and large firms, we find that shocks to small firm returns affect the large firm conditional variance once we allow for (negative) spillovers between the conditional variances themselves.

Stylized facts suggest that output volatility in OECD countries has declined in recent years. However, the causes and the nature of this decline have so far been analyzed mainly for the United States. In this paper, we analyze whether structural breaks in the dynamics and the volatility of the real output process in Germany can be detected. We report evidence that output volatility has declined in Germany. Yet, this decline in output volatility is not as clear-cut as it is in the case of the United States. In consequence, it is difficult to answer the question whether the decline in output volatility in Germany reflects good economic and monetary policy or merely "good luck".

Gain a deep, intuitive and technical understanding of practical options theory The main challenges in successful options trading are conceptual, not mathematical. Volatility: Practical Options Theory provides financial professionals, academics, students and others with an intuitive as well as technical understanding of both the basic and advanced ideas in options theory to a level that facilitates practical options trading. The approach taken in this book will prove particularly valuable to options traders and other practitioners tasked with making pricing and risk management decisions in an environment where time constraints mean that simplicity and intuition are of greater value than mathematical formalism. The most important areas of options theory, namely implied volatility, delta hedging, time value and the so-called options greeks are explored based on intuitive economic arguments alone before turning to formal models such as the seminal Black-Scholes-Merton model. The reader will understand how the model free approach and mathematical models are related to each other, their underlying theoretical assumptions and their implications to level that facilitates practical implementation. There are several excellent mathematical descriptions of options theory, but few focus on a translational approach to convert the theory into practice. This book emphasizes the translational aspect, while first building an intuitive, technical understanding that allows market makers, portfolio managers, investment managers, risk managers, and other traders to work more effectively within-and beyond-the bounds of everyday practice.-Gain a deeper understanding of the assumptions underlying options theory -Translate theoretical ideas into practice -Develop a more accurate intuition for better time-constrained decision making This book allows its readers to gain more than a superficial understanding of the mechanisms at work in options markets. Volatility gives its readers the edge by providing a true bedrock foundation upon which practical knowledge becomes stronger.