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The value of voter behavior surveys lies in the possibility of following the changes of the voters' preferences. In this type of survey, errors are found that are due to specific problems of sample composition. The problem is that one cannot weigh the sample with respect to the variable 'past voting behavior'. Rs answers to the question: "Which party did you vote for in the last election?" cannot be accepted at face value. NIPO includes that question in its weekly survey. These surveys are studied to discover how to protect against mistakes arising from a nonrepresentative sample in terms of past voting behavior. The method involves a comparison between actual electoral returns & voters' statements regarding past voting behavior as well as a weighing of the sample based on the results of the weekly survey from the last sixteen weeks. In Comment, J. W. Foppen (Erasmus U, Rotterdam Netherlands) objects that there are serious weaknesses regarding the NIPO surveys which de Hond uses as his bases. Moreover, de Hond's own work based on these surveys suffers from statistical blunders & computational errors. In Remarks, de Hond answers that the above comments either are not applicable to his own work or else can be directed at all survey research work. They are also based on misunderstandings & an unsympathetic reading. 7 Tables. A. Orianne.

THE ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN VOTING BEHAVIOR IS OFTEN BASED UPON RECALL DATA. THE NOTE OF RELIABILITY OF THIS TYPE OF DATA IS QUESTIONED. RECALL DATA UNDERESTIMATE THE NUMBER OF CHANGES IN PARTY CHOICE. NO EVIDENCE HAS BEEN FOUND THAT THE USE OF RECALL DATA HAS ANY CONSEQUENCES FOR THE STUDY OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE STABILITY OF PARTY CHOICE & SUCH VARIABLES AS POLITICAL INTEREST, POLITICAL KNOWLEDGE, & EDUCATION. THE ANALYSIS OF THE RELIABILITY OF QUESTIONS ON TURN-OUT IS NOT CONCLUSIVE. THERE ARE VERY STRONG INDICATIONS THAT IN EACH ELECTION STUDY NONVOTERS GIVE LESS RELIABLE ANSWERS THAN VOTERS. THIS UNRELIABILITY IS ESPECIALLY HIGH WHEN RECALL DATA ARE USED. 11 TABLES. HA.

The question is explored whether municipal elections can be compared to nat'l parliamentary elections, & shifts in party-choice in Belgium in the municipal elections of 1964 & the parliamentary elections of 1965 are compared. The methodology of this study is described. Shifts of the electoral bodies in the Flemish, the Walloon & the Brussels cantons (counties) were controlled individually. These shifts were then specified according to the canton's degree of Ur'ization. It appeared that some notable party-shifts had been realized during the short period between the municipal elections of 1964 & the legislative elections of 1965. In general, a certain polarization took place, due to a centrifugal vote shift to the left. The direction of vote shifts in the municipal elections of 1964 was affirmed at the legislative elections of 1965, & was accentuated from some parties, eg, the CVP & the PVV. The size & pattern of these shifts was not the same everywhere; it differed according to linguistic region & degree of Ur'ization. The level of oscillations grew higher as the degree of Ur'ization decreased. The largest shifts took place in the Walloon cantons. The lowest oscillations were noted in the Flemish & Brussels cantons; ie, the voting behavior of the big agglomerations during the municipal elections of 1964 were the closest to the nat'l electoral pattern. It is noted that the limitations of the study do not allow generalization of conclusions. The short period between the 2 elections compared was itself an exceptional situation which may have influenced the results. 7 Tables. Modified HA.

'Polarization' has become a catchword in Dutch politics, denoting the emphasis on conflicting rather than mutual interests. It is assumed that the efforts made to 'polarize' the voter population are aimed at reducing the large reservoir of middle-of-the-roaders. In its weekly opinion survey, the Netherlands Institute of Public Opinion (NIPO) consistently finds about 30% of the Rs choosing the center of a left/right semantic differential scale with almost an equal number of Rs going to right & left positions. The almost Gaussian overall distribution is shown to be highly correlated with party choice & voting behavior. The frequency distributions along the left/right Osgood scale are highly skewed inside each separate political preference group. The results of a new additional question are reported. The question reads: "If you were not allowed or could not choose this position would you then go for the one adjoining to the right or to the left?" A very large proportion of Rs move over to the left or right even beyond the extremes of the seven-point scale, effectively extending it to a nine-point scale. The popular center position is then reduced to about 12%. Even more interesting are larger variations over time that are shown for an interesting period extending from late Sept to the end of Nov 1977, during which efforts to form a new socialist-dominated government failed. The extended scale is shown to be a more sensitive instrument than the seven-point semantic differential alone. 6 Tables. Modified HA.

Results from the 1986 parliamentary elections in the Netherlands are examined to assess the impact on voting behavior of several major factors: pillarization, based on religion & SC; issues; candidate orientations; & ideology. The importance of religion & SC has declined since the 1950s, with religious voters supporting secular parties & secular voters also supporting religious parties, especially the Christian Democrats. Issues & economic ideology are strongly related to party choice; candidate orientations also have some influence. Each of these perspectives explains part of voter behavior; together they yield two discriminant functions, one correlated with Left-Right orientation, various political issues, & support for various candidates, the other with religiosity & abortion attitudes. Together, these discriminant functions correctly classify 52% of voters by party preferences. 20 Tables, 2 Figures. Modified HA

Recent trends in election campaigns in Belgium & the Netherlands are compared from both political & historical perspective; it is stressed that primary reference is made to Flanders, & only occasionally to Wallonia, when the political landscape of Belgium is discussed. Developments since the 1960s in both countries are examined, identifying similarities & differences across the following areas: (1) the consociational democracy of Belgium & the Netherlands & its erosion with the formation of new political parties, growing polarization, & negative campaigning, (2) the election system & rules; the structure of parliamentary democracy in the two countries & its reflection in election campaigns; the voter's choices & influence on the composition of both houses of the parliament & the office of prime minister, (3) the content & form of election campaigns; campaign financing, presence in the traditional & new media; free TV time, (4) what is the campaign about & for whom is the vote cast? the principal role played by the party's first candidate on the list, (5) the election rules of the prime minister & new government formation; the role of party leadership. It is concluded that Belgium & the Netherlands still share some characteristics of consensus democracies, however, developments since the 1960s, in particular the growing division between the Flemish & French-speaking regions of Belgium, led to significant institutional changes in the latter country's election campaigns & its citizen's declining interest in this political process on both federal & regional levels. Election campaigns in the Netherlands seem to be more concrete & relevant to the voter. However, both countries suffer from voters' losing direct control over who is elected & over the composition of their future government. Z. Dubiel

Data are presented on 3 groups of factors in the pol'al recruitment of Dutch members of Parliament sitting in the Spr of 1968: (a) pol'al orientation & activity of fathers & other members of the representative's fam; (b) the development of soc & pol'al interests during the member's younger yrs; & (c) the cursus honorum through which members moved before nomination to Parliament. Within each of these groups the following tables are presented: (1) Fam milieu: degree of interest & pol'al activity of fathers & mothers of members; fam relationship between soc stratification & pol'al activity of father & other fam relations; degree of pol'al heredity in pol'al choice; the relation between pol'al identification & pol'al activity in parental circles & crossing of traditional party lines by members; diff's between the parties in pol'al activity of members' fam's. (2) Activities during youth: province & type of community in which members grew up; members' assessments of factors which influenced their pol'al choice; activity in various types of youth assoc's; extent of membership in certain traditional student fraternities & other student assoc's; party vote at first election in which member participated; age at which they began to show interest in pol'al office. (3) Cursus Honorum: membership of party executives at central & local level; membership of lower representative bodies; experience in other pol'al roles; factors in nomination; assessment of importance of certain desirable qualities in a member of Parliament. Certain diff's between Upper & Lower House, & between the major Dutch parties are summarized. These diff's can be partly attributed to diff's in the instit'al arrangement of the 2 Houses (eg, diff's in size, in nomination & election procedures, in demand on members' time, in party composition), & partly to historical & org'al diff's between the Dutch parties. IPSA.

The ecologist (green) party, Agalev, & the radical right-wing party, Vlaams Blok, have often been considered each others' antipodes on the Belgium political spectrum in their attitudes toward immigrant rights, Flemish & Belgian nationalism, materialistic vs postmaterialistic values, & environmental policy. Using data from 2,619 Flemish voters after the 1991 general elections, attitudes & sociodemographic characteristics of these parties are analyzed in a global logistic regression model, using the electorates of all other parties as a reference category. It is found that young urban non-Catholics are overrepresented in the electorates of both parties; however, Agalev voters tend to be well-educated & have a high occupational status, whereas Vlaams voters are more likely to have little education & a low (blue-collar) occupational status. Controlling for social characteristics, these attitudinal variables show significant opposite net effects on the electoral choice. Agalev & Vlaams Blok each received about 10% of the votes, supporting Swyngedouw's thesis (1986 [see abstract 86Q8012]) about the emergence of two cleavages, the universalistic-particularistic & postmaterialistic-materialistic. 3 Tables. Adapted from the source document.