La evocación de libros de memorias que destacan la nostalgia de un mundo estable y en orden, para cuestionar a continuación si esto es sólo una ilusión, sirve para presentar la idea que, para muchos, a pesar de todo lo celebrable de la caída del Muro de Berlín, éste representaba la estabilidad del mundo bipolar y que su desaparición ha dado lugar a un período de incertidumbre e inestabilidad.
Fue una exageración insistir, como muchos lo han hecho tanto en Estados Unidos como en otros países, en que el mundo cambió para siempre después del 11 de Septiembre de 2001. En el caso de Estados Unidos, por ejemplo, la administración de George W. Bush, que asumiera el poder a comienzos de ese año, era unilateralista y aislacionista antes de los ataques a las Torres Gemelas y así permaneció después de ellos. Lo que cambió en la política internacional de Estados Unidos es que el terrorismo, y por extensión otras amenazas intermesticas y no estatales, remplazó a las amenazas tradicionales basadas en el estado y se convirtió en la prioridad número uno de la nación. Además, la respuesta a esta agresión se tornó militar y agresivamente imperialista y siguió siendo unilateral . Desafortunadamente, desde una perspectiva latinoamericana, los ataques parecieron retrotraer a Estados Unidos a un pensamiento estratégico anterior que había caracterizado al período de la Guerra Fría, en la cual el hemisferio era decisivamente menos importante que otras regiones del mundo. Además, los atentados reforzaron la tendencia histórica de imponer su agenda al resto del hemisferio y de insistir en una postura Maniquea de "con nosotros" o "en contra" nuestra.
Article entitled "La prensa y los asuntos internacionales" [The press and international affairs], discarding statements about bolshevism in Mexico. / Artículo intitulado "La prensa y los asuntos internacionales" desechando las falsas declaraciones en torno del bolchevismo en México.
s a practicing statistician, we frequently are asked questions like: What is the role of statistics in our daily life? Why do we need statistics? What would the world be without statistics? Here are some of my thoughts on these and related matters. Statistics is an ancient tool which has been useful in solving problems of interest and understanding the world we live in. Until recently, say 60 years ago, in Latin America there was the wrong perception that statistics was an exoteric field that did not relate well to the needs of our society. Also, it was incorrectly thought that statistics was a branch of mathematics of interest only to people in academia. Fortunately, the perception is changing. These days, we find more and more people interested on how and where one could use statistics to the advantage of government, business, sciences, and day to day affairs. Careers and training in statistics are becoming more common in our universities, and statisticians are beginning to play an important role in our society. Statistics derives its power from the positive impact that it can have when it interacts with other fields like science, business, government, services, and research in general. There are numerous well documented reports for the interdisciplinary added value due to the use of statistics. The reports are on a wide range of applications from Physics (see, Mahon, B. "How Science Got Statistics", Significance, June 2015) to improving the quality of beer (see, https:// en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Sealy_Gosset). For a very interesting collection of applications in México, see http://www. mundoestadisticacimat.mx/videos. In principle the idea is to use statistics to make decisions based on uncertainty and limited information. The first hurdle to overcome is to agree to the concept that basically there are no predictable or repeatable processes. That variability is inherent on whatever we observe, measure, or manufacture. Also, to understand that it is unrealistic to expect a complete control of variability, if at all possible, at a reasonable cost. In making decisions under uncertainty there are important considerations: The risk in simplistic terms is function of the probability that the decision is incorrect and the cost due to the incorrect decision. If the risk is too high, it might be the case that we should not assume the risk or take action to decrease the probability or cost (or both) of an incorrect decision. Related, suppose that there is a business decision which carries minor lasting economic repercussions in case of failure, other than the cost of implementing it, but with great competitive advantages if it succeeds. The business opportunity is a function of the probability of a successful decision and the benefits derived from this decision. If the investment to try the new venture is low as compared to potential business opportunity, why not try? In either case, getting a good estimate of the probability of an incorrect (or correct) decision is in the realm of work where good statistics combined with subject matter is paramount. Interestingly, statistics thrives in moments of crisis. The need of quick response or understanding of undesirable events has shown the important role of statistics in those decision making situations. A few documented cases that come to mind are: the important work of statisticians in breaking the Enigma code and the developing of the A-bomb during World War II, the role of statistics in understanding the problem and finding adequate treatments for HIV patients since this epidemiologic crisis emerged in the 1980s, understanding the root cause for the Space Shuttle Challenger disaster in 1986, and the work of statisticians in the non-destructive evaluation area caused by the current terrorist attacks. Of course, all these examples are high end applications, but statistics is being used today for more mundane purposes like: what is the remaining life of the battery of a pacemaker that a patient has worn for a certain period of time or how to identify those students in their first college year with the highest probability of abandoning their college education. Another important trait of statistics is its evolving nature. It is a field in the making in the sense that the field is driven by change and innovations (i.e., the discipline grows due to the needs of new problems to solve). We have the challenge and opportunity of forging and building statistical curricula that is useful for our future graduates. Where should we start? This is subject to debate. I am of the opinion that it should be started at the high school level at the latest, but by all means all college students should be exposed to some type of statistics education. Not everybody needs to be a practicing statistician, but at the very minimum, individuals in decision making positions should know when to use statistics or when to bring in statisticians into the decision making process. Paraphrasing A. Gelman, what would be "A world without statistics?" Well, the world most likely would have not disappeared, but we would not understand it so well, it would not be as confortable, and the quality of life would not be as good. Finally, for young generations interested in jobs for the future, the track record of statistics in other countries anticipates that in Latin America statistics would be a promising career with good job security, competitive salaries, and friendly working environments.
Articles published by THE WORLD and entitled: intitulados "El Senado aprueba unánimemente el arbitraje", "La bienvenida al obispo Díaz", "Las armas para Nicaragua fueron compradas en Nueva York", "Distribución de editoriales para impedir la crisis", "Arbitraje gran doctrina americana", "Nuestro Departamento de Estado es un aficionado", "El tratado con México respecto a el embargo de armas toca a su fin", "De la Huerta asegura que los asesinatos incitaron a la rebelión", "Los fusilamientos en México" "Los indios yaquis salen de Arizona" y "Ford le dice a Rogers y Rogers le dice a Calles: que Hoover fue escogido para Presidente desde hace ocho años". The aforementioned articles concern the establishment of international arbitration to solve the clashes between Mexico and The United States; Bishop Pascual Díaz' statement indicating that the church does not want an armed revolution in Mexico; a statement arguing that the weapons to be sent to Nicaragua were purchased in New York; the arbitration on the Mexican problem; the political career of the employees of the American diplomatic service; disagreement about the ending of the treaty on weapons embargo; the Yaqui surrender; and Ambassador Morrow's visit to Guanajuato. A page of THE WORLD containing Adolfo de la Huerta's statements indicating that Gómez and Serrano's rebel movement pursued the same cause of the movement in 1923 (See Library). An article about Félix F. Palavacini's trial on charges of revolt instigation (See library). / Artículos publicados en THE WORLD intitulados "El Senado aprueba unánimemente el arbitraje", "La bienvenida al obispo Díaz", "Las armas para Nicaragua fueron compradas en Nueva York", "Distribución de editoriales para impedir la crisis", "Arbitraje gran doctrina americana", "Nuestro Departamento de Estado es un aficionado", "El tratado con México respecto a el embargo de armas toca a su fin", "De la Huerta asegura que los asesinatos incitaron a la rebelión", "Los fusilamientos en México" "Los indios yaquis salen de Arizona" y "Ford le dice a Rogers y Rogers le dice a Calles: que Hoover fue escogido para Presidente desde hace ocho años", relativos a: el establecimiento del arbitraje internacional para el arreglo de diferencias entre México y Estados Unidos; la declaración del Obispo Pascual Díaz, reiterando que la iglesia no desea una revolución armada en México; la aseveración de que las armas destinadas a Nicaragua fueron compradas en Nueva York; el arbitraje para el problema mexicano; las carreras políticas de los empleados del servicio exterior norteamericano; disención sobre el término del tratado sobre embargo de armas; la rendición de los yaquis; visita del Embajador Morrow a Guanajuato. Página del periódico THE WORLD que contiene las declaraciones de Adolfo de la Huerta de que el movimiento rebelde de Gómez y Serrano tiene las mismas causas que el movimiento de 1923 (Ver Hemeroteca). Artículo sobre el juicio a Félix F. Palavicini por incitar a la rebelión (Ver Hemeroteca).
Official letter from Arturo M. Elías, Mexican Consul in New York to Soledad González, Gen. Plutarco Elías Calles' personal secretary informing of mailing newspaper clippings containing news about Mexico. Articles published in the NEW WORLD. Said articles are entitled "El hábito de la Revolución" [the revolution habit] commenting on the fact that it has become a habit in Mexico to have an outbreak of revolution every time they have presidential elections, since the candidates of the opposition are incapable of resorting to other means to get rid of the party in power. Another article entitled "Un crimen contra la paz" [A crime against peace] discusses the memorandum on communism in Latin America, which was submitted by State Secretary Kellog to the Foreign Relations Committee at the American Senate. In said memorandum, Kellog states that he supported an intervention in Mexico and in other Latin American countries. / Oficio de Arturo M. Elías, Cónsul de México en Nueva York a Soledad González, secretaria particular del Gral. PEC, notificando el envío de recortes de periódico con noticias sobre México. Artículos publicados en el NEW YORK WORLD intitulados "El hábito de la Revolución", que comenta que en México se ha hecho hábito que estalle una revolución en época de elecciones a la Presidencia de la República pues los candidatos de oposición no conocen otros medios para deshacerse del partido que está en el poder; y "Un crimen contra la paz", que habla sobre el memorándum sobre el comunismo en América Latina, que fue sometido por el Secretario Kellogg al Comité de Relaciones Exteriores del Senado Estadounidense, en el que apoya la intervención a México y a otros países de América Latina.