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Cover -- TABLE OF CONTENTS -- ABBREVIATIONS -- PREFACE -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY -- ACTION PLAN (AS OF SEPTEMBER 30, 2017) -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. IDENTIFYING FISCAL RISKS IN COTE D'IVOIRE -- A. Conceptual Framework for Identifying Fiscal Risks -- B. Inventory of Fiscal Risks in Côte d'Ivoire -- III. ANALYZING THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC RISKS -- A. Sensitivity Analyses (single shock) -- B. Alternative Scenarios (multiple shocks) -- IV. IMPROVING THE MONITORING AND MANAGEMENT OF FISCAL RISKS RELATED TO PUBLIC ENTERPRISES -- A. Consolidating Existing Risk Monitoring Methods -- B. Improving Coordination Between the Various Players -- C. Provide More Information on the Financial and Strategic Outlook for Public Enterprises -- V. PUBLISHING A FISCAL RISK STATEMENT -- A. Existing Practices in Terms of Communicating on Fiscal Risks -- B. Publishing a Fiscal Risk Statement -- C. Institutionalizing the Monitoring and Publishing of Fiscal Risks -- BOXES -- 1. Elements on Cocoa Price Stabilization Methods -- 2. International Practices: Information on the Performance of Enterprises -- 3. Proposal for an Ivorian FRS for the 2020 Budget -- 4. Classifying Fiscal Risk Management Measures -- 5. Excerpts from Legislation: International Examples -- FIGURES -- 1. Sources of Fiscal Risks -- 2. Impact of the Volatility of Cocoa Prices on Tax Revenues -- 3. Impact of the Volatility of Oil Prices on Tax Revenues -- 4. Sensitivity of Revenue and Expenditure to GDP Growth -- 5. CFAF / Exchange Rate Forecast Deviations -- 6. Contributions in Change in Côte d'Ivoire's Debt -- 7. Costs Linked to Fiscal Risks: Sample of 80 Countries, 1990-2014 -- 8. Prioritization of Fiscal Risks -- 9. Shock on Cocoa Prices Applied in This Sensitivity Analysis -- 10. Mapping of Financial Relationships Between Public Enterprises and the Central Government (2015).

Cover -- TABLE DES MATIÈRES -- GLOSSAIRE -- ÉVOLUTION RÉCENTE, RÉSULTATS DU PROGRAMME ET PERSPECTIVES À COURT TERME -- DISCUSSIONS DE POLITIQUE ECONOMIQUE -- A. Politiques budgétaire et de financement pour 2014 et 2015 -- B. Mobiliser le secteur privé pour pérenniser une croissance élevée -- C. Améliorer les statistiques économiques -- SUIVI DU PROGRAMME, FINANCEMENT ET RISQUES -- ÉVALUATION PAR LES SERVICES DU FMI -- ENCADRÉS -- 1. Mise en œuvre d'une couverture universelle -- 2. Impact de la crise Ébola en Côte d'Ivoire -- 3. Règlement des arriérés intérieurs -- GRAPHIQUES -- 1. Secteur réel et extérieur, 2012-15 -- 2. Évolution budgétaire , 2012-15 -- 3. Climat des affaires et revenu par habitant dans les pays d'Afrique subsaharienne -- 4. Indicateurs de climat des affaires -- TABLEAUX -- 1. Principaux indicateurs économiques, 2012-17 -- 2. Balance des paiements, 2012-17 -- 3a. Opérations budgétaires de l'administration centrale, 2012-17 (milliards de francs CFA) -- 3b. Opérations budgétaires de l'administration centrale, 2012-17 (pourcentage du PIB) -- 4. Situation monétaire, 2012-17 -- 5. Besoins de financement extérieur, 2012-16 -- 6. Indicateurs de solidité financière du secteur bancaire, 2008-14 -- 7. Indicateurs de la capacité de rembourser le FMI, 2014-25 -- 8. Calendrier proposé pour les décaissements et les revues de l'accord FEC, 2011-15 -- APPENDIX -- I. Lettre d'intention -- Pièce jointe I. Supplément au Mémorandum de politiques économiques et financières -- Pièce jointe II. Protocole d'Accord Technique - Accord sous la Facilité Élargie de Crédit -- TABLE DES MATIÈRES -- RELATIONS AVEC LE FMI -- PROGRAMME DE TRAVAIL CONJOINT BANQUE MONDIALE-FMI, 2014-15 -- OPÉRATIONS ET STRATÉGIE DU GROUPE DE LA BANQUE AFRICAINE DE DÉVELOPPEMENT EN CÔTE D'IVOIRE -- QUESTIONS D'ORDRE STATISTIQUE

Cover -- CONTENTS -- CONTEXT, RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS, OUTLOOK AND RISKS -- PROGRAM PERFORMANCE -- ECONOMIC POLICIES FOR 2019 AND 2020 -- A. Maintaining Fiscal Discipline -- B. Supporting Domestic Revenue Mobilization -- C. Preserving Debt Sustainability -- D. Strengthening the Banking Sector -- E. Reinforcing the Enabling Environment for the Private Sector -- PROGRAM MODALITIES AND FINANCING ASSURANCES -- STAFF APPRAISAL -- FIGURES -- 1. Recent Economic Developments, 2015-19 -- 2. Medium-Term Outlook, 2016-24 -- TABLES -- 1. Selected Economic Indicators, 2016-24 -- 2a. Balance of Payments, 2016-24 (Billions of CFA francs) -- 2b. Balance of Payments, 2016-24 (Percent of GDP) -- 3a. Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2017-24 (Billions of CFA francs) -- 3b. Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2017-24 (Percent of GDP) -- 4. Monetary Survey, 2016-24 -- 5. Financial Soundness Indicators for the Banking Sector, 2014-18 -- 6a. External Financing Requirements, 2016-24 (Billions of CFA francs) -- 6b. External Financing Requirements, 2016-24 (Percent of GDP) -- 7. Indicators of Capacity to Repay the Fund, 2019-27 -- 8. Schedule of Disbursements and Timing of Reviews Under ECF/EFF Arrangements, 2016-20 -- ANNEXES -- I. Risk Assessment Matrix -- II. Options for Medium-Term Tax Reforms -- III. Côte d'Ivoire's Program Objectives and IMF Technical Assistance -- APPENDIX -- I. Letter of Intent -- Attachment I. Supplement to the Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, 2016-19 -- Attachment II. Technical Memorandum of Understanding Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility, 2016-20.

Cover -- CONTENTS -- CONTEXT AND RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS -- PROGRAM PERFORMANCE -- OUTLOOK AND RISKS -- ECONOMIC POLICIES FOR 2018-19 -- A. Converging to the WAEMU Fiscal Deficit Norm -- B. Boosting Domestic Revenue Mobilization -- C. Consolidating Fiscal Structural Reforms -- D. A Balanced Financing Strategy for Debt Sustainability -- E. Containing Fiscal Risks -- F. Strengthening the Banking Sector -- G. Business Climate and Structural Reforms for Inclusive Growth -- PROGRAM MODALITIES AND FINANCING ASSURANCES -- STAFF APPRAISAL -- FIGURES -- 1. Recent Economic Developments, 2014-18 -- 2. Medium-Term Outlook, 2015-23 -- TABLES -- 1. Selected Economic Indicators, 2015-23 -- 2a. Balance of Payments, 2015-23 (Billions of CFA francs) -- 2b. Balance of Payments, 2015-23 (Percent of GDP) -- 3a. Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, (Billions of CFA francs) 2016-23 -- 3b. Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, (Percent of GDP) 2016-23 -- 4. Monetary Survey, 2015-23 -- 5. Financial Soundness Indicators for the Banking Sector, 2013-17 -- 6a. External Financing Requirements, 2015-23 (Billions of CFA francs) -- 6b. External Financing Requirements, 2015-23 (Percent of GDP) -- 7. Indicators of Capacity to Repay the Fund, 2018-26 -- 8. Schedule of Disbursements and Timing of Reviews Under ECF/EFF Arrangements, 2016-19 -- ANNEXES -- I. Revised National Accounts, 2016-17 -- II. Risk Assessment Matrix -- III. Strengthening the National Statistical System -- APPENDIX -- I. Letter of Intent -- Attachment I. Supplementary Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies for 2018-19 -- Attachment II. Technical Memorandum of Understanding

Côte d'Ivoire first experienced a civil war in 2002, but the country's rapid socio-political disintegration after the demise of Félix Houphouët-Boigny in 1993 produced several risk factors that would eventually culminate in atrocity crimes between 2010 and 2011. This article identifies a weak state that only exercised jurisdiction over the south of the country, years of instability driven by horizontal inequalities and an identity crisis, past abuses that had gone unpunished, and election disputes that served as triggers for atrocity crimes. The deeply polarized nature of Ivorian society meant that local mechanisms for resolving disputes and building peace were not wholly effective, even though they helped to resolve disputes and prevent violence in some local communities. Findings from the Ivorian case demonstrate the need to pay closer attention to the structural and proximate factors that underpin conflicts. Côte d'Ivoire also presents lessons on the need for decisive action in the face of unfolding atrocity crimes. There was a need for timely and decisive response in accordance with the principles of R2P. Nonetheless military intervention was delayed for months, resulting in avoidable fatalities.

En avril 2009, les conseils d'administration de l'IDA et du FMI ont convenu quela Côte d'Ivoire avait rempli les conditions pour atteindre le point de décision dans lecadre de l'Initiative en faveur des pays pauvres très endettées (PPTE) renforcée. Lemontant de l'allègement ayant fait l'objet d'un engagement au point de décision était de3004,9 milliards de dollars en valeur actualisée (VA) à fin 2007. Ce montant correspondait àune réduction en VA de la dette extérieure admissible à 250 % des recettes à fin 2007, d'où unfacteur commun de réduction de 23,6 %

Cover -- CONTENTS -- CONTEXT -- KEY TRENDS AND RECENT DEVELOPMENTS -- A. Catching Up After Lost Momentum -- B. Recent Economic Developments and Program Performance -- OUTLOOK AND RISKS -- ARTICLE IV POLICY DISCUSSIONS: FOSTERING SUSTAINED AND INCLUSIVE GROWTH -- Structural Reforms to Improve the Investment Climate and Growth Sustainability and Inclusiveness -- Fiscal Consolidation -- National and Regional Policy Consistency -- Debt Management -- Strengthening the Banking and Financial Sector -- PROGRAM ISSUES -- Fiscal Policy -- Financial Sector -- PROGRAM MODALITIES AND FINANCING ASSURANCES -- DATA AND SAFEGUARDS ISSUES -- STAFF APPRAISAL -- BOXES -- 1. Mobilizing Tax Revenue -- 2. Eurobond Issuances in 2017 and 2018 -- FIGURES -- 1. Social and Poverty Indicators -- 2. Bank Credit to the Economy by Sector -- 3. Recent Economic Developments, 2014-18 -- 4. Medium-Term Outlook, 2015-23 -- TABLES -- 1. Selected Economic Indicators, 2015-23 -- 2a. Balance of Payments, 2015-23 (Billions of CFA Francs) -- 2b. Balance of Payments, 2015-23 (Percent of GDP) -- 3a. Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2016-23 (Billions of CFA Francs) -- 3b. Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2016-23 (Percent of GDP) -- 4. Monetary Survey, 2015-23 -- 5. Financial Soundness Indicators for the Banking Sector, 2013-17 -- 6a. External Financing Requirements, 2015-23 (Billions of CFA Francs) -- 6b. External Financing Requirements, 2015-23 (Percent of GDP) -- 7. Indicators of Capacity to Repay the Fund, 2018-26 -- 8. Schedule of Disbursements and Timing of Reviews Under the ECF/EFF Arrangements, 2016-19 -- ANNEXES -- I. Medium-Term Growth -- II. Status of the 2016 Article IV Main Recommendations -- III. Intraregional Spillovers in the West African Economic and Monetary Union: The Role of Côte d'Ivoire -- IV. Risk Assessment Matrix.

Cover -- CONTENTS -- FOSTERING SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH -- A. Introduction -- B. Growth Performance: 1970-2015 -- C. How Can Growth Be Sustained? -- D. A Comparative Analysis -- E. Concluding Remarks -- FIGURES -- 1. Per Capita Real GDP Level and Growth -- 2. Impulse Response Function for Output in Response to Civil War, Africa -- 3. Growth Decomposition -- 4. Manufacturing Exports -- 5. Complexity of Exports -- 6. Distance to Frontier for Trading Across Borders -- 7. Share of Agricultural Value Added in GDP -- 8. Evolution of the Gini Coefficient -- 9. Development of Polity2 Scores

Cover -- CONTENTS -- CONTEXT AND RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS -- PROGRAM PERFORMANCE -- OUTLOOK AND RISKS -- ECONOMIC POLICIES FOR 2019 -- A. Preserving Macroeconomic Stability -- B. Supporting Fiscal Discipline Through Structural Reforms -- C. Preserving Debt Sustainability -- D. Strengthening the Financial Sector to Better Leverage the Economy -- E. Nurturing the Private Sector -- PROGRAM MODALITIES AND FINANCING ASSURANCES -- STAFF APPRAISAL -- BOX -- I. Côte d'Ivoire's Business Environment and Competitiveness -- FIGURES -- 1. Recent Economic Developments, 2014-19 -- 2. Medium-Term Outlook, 2016-24 -- 3. Côte d'Ivoire's Macro-Environment Compared to Other High-Growth Economies -- TABLES -- 1. Selected Economic Indicators, 2016-24 -- 2a. Balance of Payments, 2016-24 (Billions of CFA francs) -- 2b. Balance of Payments, 2016-24 (Percent of GDP) -- 3a. Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2017-24 (Billions of CFA francs) -- 3b. Fiscal Operations of the Central Government, 2017-24 (Percent of GDP) -- 4. Monetary Survey, 2016-24 -- 5. Financial Soundness Indicators for the Banking Sector, 2014-18 -- 6a. External Financing Requirements, 2016-24 (Billions of CFA francs) -- 6b. External Financing Requirements, 2016-24 (Percent of GDP) -- 7. Indicators of Capacity to Repay the Fund, 2019-27 -- 8. Schedule of Disbursements and Timing of Reviews Under ECF/EFF Arrangements, 2016-19 -- ANNEXES -- I. Risk Assessment Matrix -- II. Côte d'Ivoire's Program Objectives and IMF Technical Assistance -- APPENDIX -- I. Letter of Intent -- Attachment I. Supplementary Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies for 2016-19 -- Attachment II. Technical Memorandum of Understanding.