Based on preliminary estimates, the Lao People's Democratic Republic (PDR) economy grew by 7.5 percent in 2014, compared to an average of 8 percent over 2011-13. Looking forward, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected to slow further in 2015 before accelerating in the medium term. Average annual inflation in 2014 decelerated to 4.2 percent from 6.4 percent a year earlier, driven primarily by slower growth in food prices and a decline in fuel prices. In response to a widened fiscal deficit in FY2012-13, the government embarked on much needed fiscal corrective measures in FY2013-14 and FY2014-15. Foreign exchange reserves coverage remains low as compared with prudential benchmarks. While the nominal exchange rate remained relatively stable within the band set by the Bank of Laos (BOL), the real exchange rate continued to appreciate. Indications in 2014 are that bank credit growth is slowing down sharply compared to its previous rapid pace over several years. In order to grasp new opportunities and enjoy the benefits of regional integration, it is necessary for Lao PDR to take steps to create a conducive business environment. In order to achieve broad-based, inclusive growth and poverty reduction in Lao PDR, channeling greater resources toward tackling key workforce skills and productivity challenges is of significant importance.
Over the past four decades Africa has diverged from other developing regions and is now the poorest region in the world. This paper offers an explanation of Africa's slow growth in terms of its distinctive economic and human geography: its high dependence upon natural resource exports, the many landlocked countries, and the high ethnic diversity of the typical state. It discusses how key economic policy choices, especially trade and fiscal policy, and assistance from the international community, need to tailored specifically to these distinctive circumstances. Part one of this paper sets out an explanation for why this happened and whether it is likely to recur, using the building blocks of economic geography. Africa is distinctive both in its physical geography and its human geography and these have shaped its opportunities. Part one has three sections. Section two considers the implications of Africa's distinctive physical geography. It accounts for some of Africa's slow growth and suggests how strategies will need to differ radically among Africa's countries. In section three author turn to its distinctive human geography and the political problems that this has created. To a considerable extent these problems recently have been surmounted: Africa's human geography may explain delayed take-off rather than predict persistent stagnation. Finally, in section four, author consider three interactions between physical geography and human geography that generate intractable problems that are likely to require both regional action and international assistance in various forms. Part two uses the analysis of part one to consider policy options. Section five discusses options for African governments. Section six focuses on the supporting actions that can be taken by governments outside Africa and by international agencies. Section seven offers a brief conclusion.
Since the Constitution (2005) provided for decentralizing powers and functions for the Governorates, the government of Iraq has enacted several legal, policy, and institutional reform initiatives, the intent of which is to shift political and administrative powers and responsibilities from the Central Government to the Governorates. The legal and policy framework for decentralization is yet to be followed through with efficient implementation. The Government of Iraq and the World Bank will like to assess the current status of decentralization and its implications for improving service delivery at the Governorate level. The objective of the assessment is to take stock of the current state of decentralization in Iraq with a view to identifying factors that contribute to weak service delivery performance at the governorate level. The assessment will also make recommendations for policy and process reforms that are deemed necessary to moving forward the decentralization process, thereby helping to improve service delivery performance by the Governorates. The assessment was carried out through a combination of desk reviews and field level consultations. This assessment provides a snapshot of the current status of the decentralization process. It identifies policy and process reform measures that are necessary to strengthen service delivery by the 15 Governorates of Iraq. Strengthening local accountability should be the key to strengthening the service delivery performance of the Governorates.
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Nearly two months into the war in Gaza, the Biden administration finds itself in a bind. International support for Israel, once strong in the aftermath of Hamas' brutal October 7 attacks, has given way to broad condemnation as Tel Aviv's campaign has left at least 15,000 Palestinians dead in addition to 30,000 injured and 1.8 million displaced.The White House's answer to this anger has been twofold. In public, President Joe Biden and his allies have emphasized the need for Israel to follow international law in its campaign to destroy Hamas but avoided weighing in on whether Israel has already violated the laws of war. In private, officials have urged their Israeli counterparts to "fight more surgically and avoid further mass displacement of Palestinians" after the temporary truce ends, according to the New York Times.But what does it mean for Israel to conduct a "surgical" war against an enemy embedded in an area roughly the size of Philadelphia with more than two million residents? And what does international law mean to a state whose leaders appear committed to destroying Hamas by any means necessary?Few thinkers are better equipped to answer these questions than Samuel Moyn, a professor of law and history at Yale University and a non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute, which publishes RS. Moyn has long grappled with the relationship between war and morality, most notably in his 2021 book "Humane: How the United States Abandoned Peace and Reinvented War."RS spoke with Moyn about how U.S. policymakers think about war and what the Gaza conflict means for the future of international law. The conversation has been edited for length and clarity.RS: U.S. officials have reportedly admonished Israel to be more 'surgical' in its war against Hamas in Gaza. How do you interpret that call? What does it tell us about how officials view war more broadly?Moyn: It seems as if American policymakers are pushing on Israel their own solution to a controversial war, which is to combine an unlimited right to self-defense with a humanization of the conduct of the hostilities. Now, the truth is, Israel probably got to that combination before September 11, 2001, and the United States learned it from Israel in the first place. But given that America is Israel's patron and protector, it's now in a position of teaching the lesson to Israel that it learned from it. Now, I'm all for saying that these wars — the War on Terror, the campaign in Gaza — are parodies of humanized war because they're so costly in civilian lives. But they're not as bad as they could be because of this new policy — it's still largely rhetorical, but it's policy too — of containing the collateral damage and saying that that makes the war more tolerable.RS: Why is the U.S., and the Biden administration in particular, so focused on questions of international law in war? To the extent that they have placed checks on Israel, it's been to suggest that international law is the thing that they must be holding to, rather than a broader sense of morality.Moyn: Well, it's really only a part of international law, which is itself very interesting. Claiming an unlimited right to self-defense isn't just a moral claim; it's also a legal claim, and it's wrong. It was wrong in the War on Terror, and I think it's wrong when Israel asserts it today. We could get into the details on that side of the equation, but you're right that in our debates, international law has become something that for many listeners means constraint not of the right to wage war but of how it's waged. I think that Joe Biden, in his so called 'bear hug' strategy, thought that once it became clear how controversial this war was going to be, he would push humanitarian concern as a way of not interfering with Israel's claimed right of self-defense, [just as] America didn't tolerate those who said its wars were illegal while sometimes accepting the criticism that the way it conducts them is illegal.RS: How, both in its justification and in its conduct, does this war differ from the wars that the U.S. carried out following 9/11?Moyn: It is more similar to the ground campaigns that America fought in Afghanistan and Iraq, which involved a pretty substantial commitment of troops and a lot of blood spilled just because ground warfare is bloody, especially when it involves cities like Fallujah or Gaza City. It's not similar to the absolutely no-holds-barred phase of the War on Terror where the George W. Bush administration asserted that international law just didn't apply to what it did to detainees. The whole point of humanized warfare is that Israel is claiming that it's following the law. But it's also not similar to the later, so-called "sustainable" phase of America's War on Terror when America pulled out troops even while extending its drone campaign and special forces deployments and then claimed to sanitize that phase of the War on Terror without all the messiness of American troops on the ground in Afghanistan and Iraq. Israel's currently in a phase that combines lots and lots of violence with claims to still be following international law. It has had phases of its struggle against Hamas that involved just bombing or its own use of special forces that were about conducting the struggle but making it as antiseptic as possible. It's just that Israel can't conduct that kind of campaign while promising to remove Hamas from power altogether.RS: Do I understand correctly that, generally, law of war questions only concern conduct within the war and not whether the broader goals of a war are appropriate or inappropriate? Doesn't it leave those questions entirely to the discretion of states?Moyn: It depends on how you define laws of war, but what we call international humanitarian law, or the laws of armed conflict, is really exclusively about how you fight. And there are other laws about when, whether, under what circumstances you can fight at all. You could call that body of law part of the laws of war, but it wouldn't be what most people mean when they use that phrase.RS: I guess I'm thinking about the question of proportionality.Moyn: The reason that's a tricky concept is that it applies in both stages of the analysis. In the so-called jus ad bellum analysis — when the resort to force in the first place or on a continuing basis is legal — there's the question of whether the exercise of a self-defense right is proportional. That is a totally different inquiry than what has generally been talked about in terms of proportionality because that's in the jus in bello — the laws of war about the conduct of hostilities. And there the question is, does the collateral damage in any particular attack outweigh the anticipated military advantage of that attack? We could argue that Israel is being disproportionate in the war in general, on the first part of the question, or we can argue with regard to any particular attack whether its attacks are disproportionately harmful to civilians.RS: Guardian columnist Nesrine Malik recently wrote that the lesson of this war is "brutal and short: human rights are not universal and international law is arbitrarily applied." Do you agree with that take?Moyn: No, because it was a lesson that the whole history of human rights and international law already taught.RS: Can you tell me more about that?Moyn: Well, there was never a time when human rights weren't selectively applied, and there was never a time when international law wasn't the law of the powerful. This campaign seems like a rather late date to learn what has always been obvious.RS: Is that a fundamental problem for international law? Or is there a possibility of a more effective international legal system in the future?Moyn: Sure, it's not as if there isn't a struggle within politics, and therefore in law, to make the law different than it has been. I could say that American law works to the advantage of the powerful and against the weak, and that would be true, but that doesn't mean we can't change it for the better.I think international law has been changed for the better at times, but it's never been freed from this syndrome that it's a body of law of, by, and for states, framed with their approval, and interpreted by them to suit their ends. We can struggle to make it more constraining in more ways, but never is it apart from the political context. Never will it transcend selectivity and inadequacy.RS: You've already written a book-length answer to this, so I'll forgive you if it's not the easiest one to answer quickly, but do you think that international law can be a tool to fight for an actual end to war? Or is it simply a tool to manage war into the future?Moyn: I do think there are a lot of resources in it. It is revolutionary that we can make claims not just that states are fighting brutally but that they're engaged in illegal war-making. The trouble is that, if we prioritize the first claim, the second claim gets lost in the shuffle. I think that's what's happened in our time through the War on Terror, with the emphasis on torture and later civilian death in drone campaigns. It seems to be repeating itself in this situation, with the emphasis on civilian death, which is not dishonorable, but in the end there's only a political solution, which means we should focus at some point on who's in the right, who has a just claim, and what would make political violence something of the past.Dear RS readers: It has been an extraordinary year and our editing team has been working overtime to make sure that we are covering the current conflicts with quality, fresh analysis that doesn't cleave to the mainstream orthodoxy or take official Washington and the commentariat at face value. Our staff reporters, experts, and outside writers offer top-notch, independent work, daily. Please consider making a tax-exempt, year-end contribution to Responsible Statecraft so that we can continue this quality coverage — which you will find nowhere else — into 2024. Happy Holidays!
Kollektiv transport er en særdeles udbredt og velkendt måde, at sikre transportmæssig sammenhæng for den brede befolkning i både byer og købstæder. Selv i landområder giver det god mening i det mindste at tilbyde nogle strategiske rejseveje, som forbindes og suppleres med mere behovsstyret transporttilbud. At få flere mennesker til, at anvende de kollektive transportmidler anses bredt, både politisk og videnskabeligt, for at kunne reducere antallet af ture i særligt personbiler og bl.a. kunne frigøre plads i hårdt pressede byer med stor daglig trængsel, som resulterer i mange spildte timer på vejene hver dag. Desuden er det et helt centralt initiativ for at nå de klimamål som bl.a. EU og FN har fastsat og dermed gennemføre den grønne omstilling af transportområdet. For at understøtte denne omstilling er det nødvendigt, at den kollektive transport bliver mere attraktiv og kan konkurrere med de fordele, en personbil tilbyder. Der er mange kritikpunkter at adressere, f.eks. rejsetid, tilgængelighed, komfort og god og præcis rejseinformation. Disse skal hver især løbende adresseres og forbedres, for at kollektiv transport kan blive, og ikke mindst forblive, et relevant, konkurrencedygtigt og grønt alternativ til personbiler. Denne ph.d.-afhandling omhandler særligt forbedring af rejseinformation, mere specifikt præcise og robuste prognoser for ankomst- og afgangstider for busser, som bl.a. deler vejbaner med den øvrige transport, og derfor naturligt er svære at forudsige. Desuden behandles andre emner også, som kan være med til at adressere flere af de øvrige punkter, herunder bedre sikring af skift mellem to kollektive transportformer, som kan reducere rejsetid og kortlægning af rejseadfærd, som kan hjælpe med at indrette det kollektive transportsystem til at passe bedre til borgernes egentlige behov. Afhandlingen er inddelt i tre dele: i) I den første del præsenteres nyskabende metoder og modeller til at danne primært kort-tids prognoser for ankomst- og afgangstider, ii) i den anden del videreudvikles denne tilgang ved at undersøge fordele og ulemper ved at kombinere flere enkeltstående modeller i et samlet prognosesystem samt den industrielle anvendelse, mens iii) den sidste del omhandler anvendelsen af lokationsdata og maskinlærings-modeller til bedre at forstå rejseadfærd. Mere uddybende omhandler den første del tilvejebringelsen af flere nye metoder og modeller, som hver især bidrager med forbedrede prognoser for bus-rejsetid og dermed mere præcise ankomst- og afgangstider for busser. Alle modellerne bygger på forskellige innovative maskinlærings-teknikker og benytter store datamængder til at lære mønstre og sammenhænge fra tidligere observerede buslokationsdata. Til sidst udvikles også modeller, som håndterer den variation, der naturligt er i rejsetider, til bedre at kunne kvantificere usikkerheden i ankomsten. Denne information anvendes konkret til at vise, hvordan et ekspert-system kan forbedre skift mellem busser ved at prioritere holdetid på en intelligent måde. Anden del udbygger denne tilgang fra et mere anvendt og operationelt perspektiv ved at præsentere et koncept for et samlet prognosesystem, hvor flere uafhængige basismodeller kan samarbejde og konkurrere for at opnå et samlet mere funktionelt, robust og præcist system. Der argumenteres for, at dette system i højere grad kan anvendes inden for de eksisterede vilkår i branchen. Der præsenteres nødvendige designvalg for at implementere et sådant system på en skalerbar, robust og omkostningseffektiv måde, og et fuldt operationelt og open source-system leveres som en del af ph.d.-projektet. Tredje og sidste del omhandler to sideløbende studier, som relaterer sig til de forudgående dele ved at kombinere lokationsdata og avancerede maskinlærings-teknikker, men fokuserer på rejseadfærd. Det første studie omhandler estimering af gangtider ved skift fra bus til tog. Der anvendes en model til at skelne mellem passagerer, der foretager et direkte skift, og dermed repræsenterer den faktiske gangtid mellem bus og tog, og den samlede gruppe som også indeholder en mængde passagerer, som foretager aktiviteter under et skift, f.eks. indkøb, besøg i nabolaget osv. Til sidst præsenteres en metode til at klassificere en sekvens af positioner indsamlet via smartphones i enten et ophold eller bevægelse. Dette er et væsentligt skridt for at opbygge automatiske rejsedagbøger fra smartphones, som potentielt udgør en stor og indsigtsfuld kilde om rejseadfærd og kan understøtte beslutningstagere og rådgivere i planlægningen af den kollektive transport, og transportområdet generelt. Overordnet konkluderes det, at avancerede og nyudviklede metoder og modeller til at forudsige bussers ankomst- og afgangstider kan forbedre præcisionen markant, men at de ofte også er urealistiske at adoptere og produktionssætte i praksis, da der forudsættes en række betingelser, som sjældent er sande i virkelige scenarier. Den forslåede multimodel- tilgang løser nogle af disse udfordringer, dog ved at gå på delvist kompromis med præcisionen. En anden vigtig konklusion er, at modellering af usikkerheden i visse tilfælde kan tilføjes uden mærkbar konsekvens for beregningstiden og kan anvendes til intelligent håndtering bl.a. i forbindelse med skift i den kollektive transport. Afslutningsvis konkluderes det yderligere, at de to studier om kombination af lokationsdata og maskinlæringsteknikker kan afsløre detaljerede informationer om rejseadfærd, som ikke anses realistiske at indhente ved de manuelle alternativer. Derved udgør de en automatisk og omkostningslet kilde til en bred og detaljeret indsigt i rejseadfærden. ; Climate change is a complex global challenge that cuts across a range of sectors and activities. For governments, addressing this type of issue is particularly difficult because of the high level of fragmentation of their bureaucracies and administrative structures, which is not conducive to the integrated activities that are necessary for effective climate action. Consequently, there is a growing recognition that integrating climate change across established policy fields is necessary to meet climate-change goals. This awareness has become highly relevant in the context of the implementation of the Paris Agreement, according to which countries must introduce adequate policies to fulfil the mitigation commitments they have made voluntarily in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Against this background, the aim of this thesis is to examine the factors influencing climate policy integration (CPI) in developing countries from the perspective of public policy-making processes. In doing so, the thesis focuses on understanding the mechanisms leading to specific instances of policy change where sectoral policy outputs in the direction of CPI emerge. Furthermore, the thesis continues this analysis through the policy-implementation phase by proposing a conceptualization of the relationship between policy mixes and policy outcomes that addresses the agency of incumbent firms in shaping policy-mix outcomes. The research topic is investigated by means of different case studies presented in three journal articles and one book chapter that form part of this thesis. First, Paper 1 analyses the usefulness of John Kingdon's multiple streams framework (MSF) to understanding policy change in the direction of CPI in developing countries. It does so through a document analysis of two climate-mainstreaming initiatives implemented by international cooperation organizations in developing countries. Findings from Paper 1 show that the MSF is a suitable framework to analyse CPI, however it does not consider the potential effects of transnational governance on national policy processes, such as international trade agreements, global climate-policy negotiations under the umbrella of the UNFCCC, or the role or international cooperation organisations. In the light of these findings, Paper 2 combines the MSF with insights from the literature on policy expansion and dismantling to analyse the integration of climate-change considerations into energy policy. It specifically examines the factors influencing the enactment of the law on the energy transition in 2015 in Mexico as an example of a specific instance of policy change in the direction of CPI. Also informed by the results of Paper 1, in Paper 3 I supplement the analytical framework with insights from the literature on transnational policy influence on domestic policy processes and analyse the potential effects of the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on domestic CPI. Findings from Paper 2 show that the MSF has been helpful in understanding the mechanisms through which the law on the energy transition was approved in Mexico. Think tanks and NGOs, acting as policy entrepreneurs, employed diverse strategies to push for the approval of this law, which explicitly integrates climate mitigation objectives in the energy sector. Policy entrepreneurs framed the proposal as a solution to the increasing costs of meeting the growing demand for energy in the context of uncertainty about oil reserves. They softened up the system for years by participating in forums, generating feasibility studies, and deploying mass media campaigns, as well as identifying COP 21 in 2015 as a conjunctural moment that opened a policy window through which to push the law's enactment. These findings show that climate-transnational governance may influence the national energy policy-making process through the agency of domestic policy entrepreneurs. Furthermore, Paper 3 shows that, given political conditions in the US, the renegotiation of NAFTA did not incorporate climate provisions into the trade agreement, which could have influenced domestic policy processes. Finally, Paper 4 extends the analysis to the policy-implementation stage by combining insights from the literature on policy mixes for sustainability transitions and incentives and opportunities for incumbent firms' diversification. It uses a case study to analyse the effects of the policy mix for grid-connected bagasse cogeneration in Mexico on sugar firms' diversification strategies. The analysis focused on the agency of sugar firms by examining the firm-specific factors that create either incentives or opportunities to deploy resources to diversify from the firm's core business activities (sugar production) into grid-connected bagasse cogeneration. The results showed that the variation found in firms' diversification strategies depended on the different firm-specific incentives and opportunities (e.g., growth plans of core business, technological assets, infrastructural assets, etc.). However, the specific set of incentives and opportunities that motivated firms to invest in sustainable technology varied as the policy mix changed over time. Furthermore, credibility in the policy mix was a necessary condition for firms to diversify, regardless of their firm-specific factors. The overall findings of the thesis point to the value of theories of the policy process in order to inform the analysis of CPI in developing countries. Theories of the policy process provide an analytical starting point to understand the factors and mechanisms leading to specific instances of policy change in the direction of CPI. However, it is important to remain critical about the validity of these theories when applied in different contexts, to identify their shortcomings, and to explore and test additional concepts that could enhance and nuance the analysis of CPI in developing countries.
Dottorato di ricerca in Economia e territorio ; In agricoltura l'acqua è spesso un fattore produttivo limitante e soggetto a frequenti ed importanti periodi di scarsità, che incentiva una forte competizione per il suo impiego anche tra diversi settori, sia industriali che urbani. Avvalendosi del principio che l'uso familiare dell'acqua debba prevalere su quello produttivo, le Pubbliche Amministrazioni tendono a razionalizzarne l'utilizzo agricolo, attraverso consorzi per la gestione delle fonti d'acqua. Tuttavia, esiste ancora una forte necessità di calibrare la gestione delle risorse idriche a scopo irriguo, per perseguire obiettivi di natura economica e politica che riguardano la riduzione degli sprechi e l'allocazione efficiente. Il problema della gestione della risorsa idrica è reso ancora più rilevante e attuale dalle recenti osservazioni e teorie sul cambio climatico globale, che prospettano scenari futuri con una scarsità dell'acqua in aumento, accompagnata da modificazioni della variabilità degli eventi atmosferici che sono alla base della sua disponibilità. Una prima e importante difficoltà nasce dall'uso normativo del concetto di efficienza, in un'ottica di recupero dei costi. E' quindi d'interesse lo studio dei costi legati all'uso della risorsa idrica in agricoltura, per comprendere meglio in che direzione sarebbe opportuno spingere le politiche di gestione dell'acqua per il raggiungimento degli obiettivi comunitari e, più in generale, di traguardi di efficienza economica più sostenibili. Per una corretta e consapevole gestione delle risorse idriche, è necessaria un'analisi degli aspetti economici legati alla fornitura del servizio irriguo, per comprendere gli effetti che determinati interventi avranno sui benefici associati a tale servizio. E' sulla comprensione di questi aspetti della distribuzione dell'acqua a scopo irriguo che si incentra il lavoro di tesi. Per realizzare questo studio, è stata presa in esame l'area servita da un consorzio di bonifica e irrigazione in Sardegna. Tale scelta è da ritenersi interessante, giacché i sistemi di distribuzione dell'acqua irrigua e i metodi di tariffazione adottati da questo consorzio sono tra i più praticati in Italia e nell'area del Mediterraneo. Pertanto, le caratteristiche di questa area permettono di estendere le conclusioni del lavoro per considerazioni più generali. Attraverso un'approfondita ricostruzione delle tecnologie distributive e dei dati economici e tecnici, sono stati prodotti i dati per poter costruire un modello dei costi operativi della distribuzione irrigua. Il lavoro di raccolta dati ha permesso di comprendere come la realtà dei consorzi irrigui sia molto variegata e diversificata. A tal proposito, infatti, non va trascurato che nel corso degli anni le strutture consortili hanno operato delle ristrutturazioni, sia dal punto di vista organizzativo che tecnico. E' quindi auspicabile comprendere come queste ristrutturazioni hanno modificato le economie e le efficienze dei consorzi irrigui e quanto spazio può ancora sussistere per un ulteriore miglioramento di queste condizioni. All'interno dello stesso comprensorio, difatti, coesistono strutture molto diverse per la distribuzione dell'acqua irrigua che sono il risultato del processo di ammodernamento differenziato e disomogeneo dei vari distretti irrigui. L'approccio metodologico utilizzato è quello basato sulla funzione di costo logaritmica trascendente (translog), già ampiamente utilizzato in altre aree di studio dell'economia applicata, soprattutto nell'analisi dell'efficienza e nella valutazione del progresso tecnologico. In questo lavoro sono stati sviluppati 7 modelli econometrici con 3 diversi gradi di dettaglio nella specificazione della tecnologia. Questa differenzazione è stata utile per comprendere come alcuni aspetti peculiari dei diversi sistemi di distribuzione dell'acqua possano essere presi in considerazione nelle politiche di tariffazione dell'acqua irrigua. Esiste ancora una forte necessità di calibrare la gestione delle risorse idriche a scopo irriguo, per perseguire obiettivi di natura economica e politica che riguardano la riduzione degli sprechi e l'allocazione efficiente. Si è visto come il volume d'acqua fornito sia di fatto un elemento insufficiente per descrivere i costi operativi: la distribuzione dei volumi d'acqua su superfici più o meno estese ha impatti spesso più importanti dei volumi d'acqua in sé. Ciò è facilmente comprensibile, perché le strutture utilizzate nella distribuzione hanno dei costi anche di 'attivazione' e di mantenimento in funzione che sono più legati alla loro dimensione piuttosto che a loro livello operativo. Quando l'acqua viene distribuita per gravità si generano delle perdite di rete dovute a necessità tecnologiche e organizzative, che raggiungono anche il 30% dell'acqua immessa nei canali. Queste perdite non assumono alcun valore economico, tranne forse quando l'acqua deve essere pompata per brevi tratti collinari. Ciò è rilevante per la gestione del servizio irriguo, nel momento in cui si vuole regolare l'esternalità dello spreco di acqua generata dal consorzio attraverso la tariffazione. Dai risultati, emerge anche un sostanziale sotto utilizzo delle strutture che generano i costi fissi di fornitura: è importante specificare che l'implementazione del recupero costo pieno, richiesto dalla attuale normativa, non determini che in varie circostanze, gli agricoltori si trovino a pagare le inefficienze dei sistemi che gestiscono i servizi idrici. Certamente, la sola conoscenza dei costi di fornitura è incompleta per adottare un adeguato sistema di tariffazione. Lo studio dei costi operativi ha comunque dato un apporto significativo alla conoscenza sul funzionamento dei consorzi di bonifica e irrigazione ed i risultati ottenuti permettono di fare delle considerazioni sulle indicazioni di tariffazione introdotti dalla WFD. ; In agriculture the water is often a limiting factor and subject to frequent and important periods of scarcity, which encourages strong competition for its use even among different sectors, both industrial and urban areas. Using the principle that the family use of water should take precedence over the production, Public Administrations tend to rationalize the agricultural use, through consortia for the management of water sources. However, there is still a strong need to adjust the management of water resources for irrigation purposes, in pursuit of economic objectives and policy dealing with waste minimization and allocation efficiency. The management of water resources is made even more relevant and topical by recent observations and theories on global climate change, which envisage future scenarios with an increasing scarcity of water, accompanied by changes in the variability of atmospheric events that underlie the availability. A first and important difficulty arises from the use of the concept of regulatory efficiency, considering cost recovery. The study of the costs associated with the use of water resources in agriculture is therefore interesting to better understand in what direction we should push the water management policy for the achievement of EU objectives and, more generally, the goals of sustainable economic efficiency. For a correct and conscious management of water resources is necessary to analyze the economic aspects related to irrigation service supply, in order to understand the effects that certain actions will have on the benefits associated with such service. The thesis focuses on understanding of these aspects of water supply for irrigation purposes. In order to carry this study on, the area served by a consortium of drainage and irrigation in Sardinia has been examined. This choice can be considered interesting, since the irrigation water distribution systems and pricing methods adopted by this consortium are among the most practiced in Italy and the Mediterranean. Therefore, the characteristics of this area allow us to extend the conclusions of the work for more general interpretations. Through a detailed reconstruction of the distribution technologies and the economic and technical aspects, the data for constructing a model of the operational costs of the irrigation distribution have been produced. The work of data collection has made it clear that the reality of the consortium irrigation is very varied and diverse. In this regard, it should not be overlooked that over the years the facilities have operated consortium of restructuring, both organizationally and technically. It is therefore desirable to understand how these renovations have changed the economies and efficiencies of irrigation consortia and how much space can still exist for further improvement of these conditions. Within the same area, in fact, very different structures for irrigation water distribution coexist, and are the result of the variable and heterogeneous modernization process throughout the various irrigation districts. The methodological approach used is based on the transcendental logarithmic (Translog) cost function, already widely used in other areas of applied economics, particularly when analyzing and evaluating the efficiency of technological progress. In this work 7 econometric models were developed, with 3 different degrees of detail in the specification of the technology . This differentiation is helpful in understanding how certain distinctive features of different water distribution systems can be taken into account in the irrigation water pricing policies. There is still a strong need to balance the management of water resources for irrigation purposes, in pursuit of economic objectives and policy dealing with waste minimization and allocation efficiency. It is seen that the volume of water supplied is in fact inadequate to describe the operational costs: the distribution of volumes of water onto land is relevant when it is accounted for considering also the land on which it is distributed. This is easily understandable, because the structures used in the distribution have also costs for activation and continued operation that are more related to their size rather than their operational level. When the water is distributed by gravity, network losses appear, due to technological and organizational needs, which reach even 30% of the water distributed in the channels. These losses do not take any economic value, except perhaps when the water must be pumped over low hills. This is relevant for the management of irrigation service, when we want to adjust the externalities of waste water generated by the consortium through the pricing. The results also shows a substantial under use of the distribution facilities that generate the fixed costs of delivery. So it is important to specify that the implementation of full cost recovery required by current legislation determines that, in some circumstances, farmers are paying the inefficiencies of the systems that manage the water services. Certainly, the mere knowledge of supply costs is incomplete to adopt a proper system of charging. The study of operating costs has nevertheless made a significant contribution to knowledge on the functioning of the consortia of reclamation and irrigation, and the results obtained allow to make some considerations on the indications for pricing introduced by the WFD.
Women and Post-Conflict Reconstruction: Issues and Sources is a review of literature dealing with political, economic and social reconstruction from a gender perspective. One of its objectives is to go beyond conventional images of women as victims of war, and to document the many different ways in which women make a contribution to the rebuilding of countries emerging from armed conflicts. Special attention is given to women's priority concerns, to their resources and capacities, and to structural and situational factors that may reduce their participation in reconstruction processes. A second aim is to shed light on how post-war reconstruction processes influence the reconfiguration of gender roles and positions in the wake of war, and how women's actions shape the construction of post-war social structures. Following the brief Introduction is a chapter on political reconstruction. It raises questions concerning women's participation in peace-building and democratization. In order to illuminate women's expectations regarding their roles and status in post-war society, the chapter opens with a brief discussion of how and to what extent various liberation movements have addressed women's issues. While some movements considered women's issues to detract attention from the main goal of their struggle, many movements regarded women's liberation as an integral dimension of their overall struggle for social justice. The fact that women's issues were included on the political agendas and that women themselves were mobilized to participate actively in the fighting is demonstrated to have been instrumental in raising women's political awareness and their expectations of state and society today. The ensuing discussion of women's participation in formal and informal peace-building activities shows that in most cases women are excluded from formal peace negotiations. Such high-level negotiations are identified as male domains, which means that they also employ discourses and practices that are closer to men's reality than to women's. As a result, women also lack direct influence in the identification of reconstruction priorities that are usually part of a peace agreement. Nevertheless, women are demonstrated to play an influential role through their work in grassroots organizations working for peace and reconciliation. From within these organizations, women constantly challenge the authorities and other members of society with demands for peace, non-discrimination, accountability, recognition of human rights, etc. While always positioned on the margins, these organizations show their ability to mobilize large numbers of women, and to translate individual grievances into legitimate social concerns. Moreover, many of them play a significant role in building a new culture of peace at the local level by organizing peace education and community-based reconciliation and social reconstruction activities. Democratization processes are generally applauded, because they are assumed to guarantee accountability and to grant all citizens the possibility to participate in political life. However, studies on elections and decentralization demonstrate several flaws when it comes to women's position. Many countries emerging from armed conflict have adopted new constitutions that grant women equal political, social and economic rights, and many governments have developed new quota systems to ensure women equal representation in decision-making institutions at all levels. However, the implementation of these laws and good intentions often runs into major obstacles. At the government level the problems include a lack of financial resources and a lack of gender awareness or political will among staff. Other major problems are to be found at the social level, where the new discourse of gender equality may run counter to existing social norms regarding gender roles. The examples discussed show that, in some cases, local authorities and male members of society may discourage or prohibit women from participating in political activities. Moreover, the fact that the division of labour has not changed in favour of women, but rather added to their burden, also poses practical limitations on the possibilities for active involvement of women. Despite these constraints, women have made remarkable contributions in many countries. In the context of elections women have organized civic education targeting women, and they have convinced women of the importance of their vote. Educated women have organized legal counselling to inform women about their rights and to help them exercise these rights. Chapter three deals with economic reconstruction and the strategies that women develop to cope with war-induced changes in the economic environment and to meet the growing responsibilities for the survival and well-being of family and relatives. The focus is on the relationship between women's economic activities and their socio-economic position. The first section of the chapter concentrates on women's involvement in agricultural production, which often constitutes a major source of income. In addition to problems of landmines, a lack of agricultural inputs and farm implements, a shattered infrastructure and the inaccessibility of markets, etc., which equally trouble male farmers, women face a number of particular challenges. First, women often lack legal rights to land and other resources which, in the context of social disintegration where a large number of women become single providers, may reduce their ability to survive on farming alone. In some countries, women are organizing themselves to lobby state and local authorities for increased access to such resources, but in many cases women are forced off the land and are compelled to seek other sources of income. Another problem facing women in agriculture is the dismantling of traditional work groups due to displacement, divorce, death, etc. This has often resulted in the creation of new co-operative associations and voluntary self-help groups which combine old institutions and current social conditions. When cultivating the family land is no longer an option, some women join the casual agricultural labour force. While this opportunity enables women to employ their skills and to earn an income, recent analyses suggest that this may in fact mean that women come to occupy a marginal position in the new structure of rural social stratification. Another area which proved to be of great importance to women's livelihoods was the burgeoning informal sector, with petty trade and small-scale businesses as major sources of income. The documentation of women's involvement in this sector showed a great variety in experiences. Some women took up activities in which they had also been involved prior to the war, but many engaged in innovative projects, even when it meant a break with existing social norms, as they took up jobs perceived to be male jobs. Some women established businesses on the basis of local resources and demand, while others established elaborate trading networks which cut across ethnic boundaries and national borders. Again, women's capacity to build and mobilize extensive social networks had a positive impact. But while women generally proved to be eager and capable entrepreneurs, the sustainability of their enterprises was often constrained by a lack of capital and marketing skills, not to mention the fact that the sector itself is highly insecure and fluctuating. Moreover, women's economic success would in some cases result in social stigmatization and exclusion, due to clashes with prevailing norms or jealousy. Finally, the formal sector is discussed. For various reasons, societies emerging from war usually experience a high unemployment rate, and women are often particularly marginalized with regard to access to formal employment. In some cases this is a result of the fact that women generally have poorer educational qualifications, but research also suggests that discriminatory practices are still frequent. One of the few areas where women seem privileged is the social sector, but because this sector is often exposed to budgetary cuts, women's access to income and status from this field is reduced. Nevertheless, women continue to perform related tasks, but as semi-professionals or even as volunteers. The fourth chapter focuses on social reconstruction, specifically on the rehabilitation of social services (health care and education) and wider issues of social integration. With regard to the first aspect, the main questions are whether the social sector recognizes women's particular needs, and whether it seeks to build on women's skills and capacities. The discussion on social integration shifts the focus to how women are positioned in processes of inclusion and exclusion, and to how women's strategies and activities influence social integration. Studies on the rehabilitation of social services suggest that even though women's needs and rights are increasingly recognized officially, women continue to be discriminated against with regard to access to education for social and cultural reasons. Health care and other social facilities also remain inadequate, with consequences not only for women's health, but also for their ability to participate in political and economic life. The material clearly demonstrates that social issues were generally given high priority by women themselves, and many women in post-conflict societies make a major contribution to their rehabilitation. In rural as well as urban areas, women have re-established primary education for children as a means to build local capacities and influence their socialization, and women are often involved in providing primary health care and socio-economic assistance on a self-help basis to people in crisis. However, as noted above, while such activities are generally welcomed, they are often considered but a natural extension of women's domestic obligations and hence are not remunerated or responded to with offers of training. In addition to ordinary health care problems, intrastate wars produce a number of specific health problems known as psycho-social traumas. These traumas may stem from experiences of forced displacement, torture, rape, violence, witnessing killings, etc. In some cases, women have been particularly vulnerable to this kind of assault on mind and body. But women have also been very active in addressing the scars that such experiences leave, organizing voluntary organizations which offer medical and psychological treatment. Moreover, they have helped former victims to overcome their distress and reintegrate, by offering skills training and income-generating activities. Another issue which has been addressed by women's organizations is the growth of violence within post-war societies. Through classroom education and workshops, women have sought to raise awareness about violence against women and to change the attitudes that consider such violence acceptable. As the discussion on social integration points out, there has long been a tendency to focus exclusively on the reintegration of returnees, internally displaced persons and demobilized soldiers, or of persons who have become marked and marginalized due to torture, disability, widowhood, etc. However, to the extent that any post-war society is inevitably undergoing profound changes in its socio-economic and political composition, the issue of integration is relevant to all members of society. This chapter focuses on this aspect from a gender and family perspective, and shows how integration often also has disintegrative aspects. Newly gained economic freedom and independence, long years of separation and exposure to new social environments and attitudes, new perceptions of the role of the family and its members, and forced migration in search of employment, all contribute to continued dismantling of existing social institutions and the establishment of new ones. Social integration, in other words, is not simply about "coming home", but about defining new guiding social values and establishing corresponding relationships and institutions based on a combination of factors including kinship, socio-economic interests, and shared experiences and circumstances. In the final chapter, conventional conceptualizations of women in conflict and post-conflict situations are examined. The chapter also contains some suggestions for alternative concepts and approaches which appear to be better tools for our understanding of women's situation and thus for the development of programmes that will assist women in their multiple efforts to rebuild their lives. It is pointed out that our understanding of women's roles in post-war societies and of their contributions to post-war reconstruction must go beyond the universalistic narrative of "women's experience of war". The specificity and diversity of women's experiences must be acknowledged. Only on this basis can we conduct comparative analyses and begin to develop a deeper general understanding of post-war reconstruction from a gender perspective. Second, the concluding chapter stresses the need to supplement the image of women as vulnerable victims with an image of women as a highly differentiated group of social actors, who possess valuable resources and capacities and who have their own agendas. Women influence the course of things, and their actions are constitutive of post-war societies. The reduction of women to targets and beneficiaries both fails to recognize their contributions and contributes to their marginalization. A third point stressed in the conclusion is the need for gender-specific data and gender-focused analysis. While special attention is given to women throughout the publication, so as to make visible the previously invisible, the aim has been to see women's situation within a gender framework which pays attention to how gender roles and relationships are continuously constructed and contested by different actors, and which recognizes the gender dimension inherent in all aspects of post-war reconstruction. The gender perspective is also relevant for the achievement of sustainable peace. As the analysis strongly suggests, the failure to recognize gender issues may produce new social tensions and contribute to the differentiating struggles over identity, status and power that are so distinctive for societies which have recently achieved peace.
{EM}INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL OF SCIENTIFIC UNIONS - ICSU{/EM}{/p} {P}{B}SCIENCE INTERNATIONAL Newsletter No. 69, December 1998{/B}{/P} {P}{B} Code Number:NL98004 {BR} Sizes of Files: {BR} Text: 145K {BR} Graphics: Line drawings (gif) - 32K{BR} Photographs (jpg) - 52K {/B}{P} {P}{B}WORLD CONFERENCE ON SCIENCE{/B}{BR} {I}Budapest, Hungary, 26 June - 1 July 1999{/P} {/I} {P}{B}Science for the 21st century: {I}A new commitment{/B}{/P} {/FONT}{P}{/P} {/I}{P}The main goal of this important meeting, which around 2,000 participants are expected to attend, is to bring together policy makers from both the political and the administrative world, and members of the scientific community at large, to reflect together on the future of scientific research, its impact on society and the demands of society on science.{/P} {B}{P}Vostok Lake, Antarctica{/P} {/B}{P}Dr Peter D. Clarkson Research,{BR} {P}A common perception is that Antarctica is a frozen continent and that is predominantly correct. In the more northerly coastal regions of the continent, particularly in the Antarctic Peninsula, summer temperatures may rise above 0C and, on warm sunny days, streams may flow from melting glaciers and snow fields. Not surprisingly, therefore, there are many small lakes and ponds that can lose their ice cover during the summer. What is surprising, however, is that the largest known lake in Antarctica is about twenty-five times the area of Lake Geneva in Switzerland (or somewhat smaller in area than Lake Ontario on the United States-Canada border, but it has a larger volume of water) and it is sandwiched between the bedrock of the continent and about 4 km of the overlying ice sheet.{/P} {P}{B}Harmful Algal Blooms{/B}{/P} {P}A new International Programme on Global Ecology and Oceanography{/P} {/B} {P}Elizabeth Gross,{/P} {P}The last two decades have been marked by an extraordinary expansion in the occurrence of the marine phenomenon we now call "harmful algal blooms". These blooms of toxic or harmful micro-algae, often inaccurately referred to as "red tides", represent a significant and expanding threat to human health and fisheries resources throughout the world. They take many forms, ranging from massive accumulations of cells that discolor the water, to dilute, inconspicuous populations that are noticed only because of the harm caused by the highly potent toxins these cells contain. The impacts of these phenomena include: mass mortalities of wild and farmed fish and shellfish; human poisonings and fatalities from the consumption of contaminated shellfish or fish; alterations of marine ecosystem structure through adverse effects on larvae and other life history stages of commercial fisheries species; and the death of marine mammals, sea birds, and other animals. On this last point, there is now a growing appreciation of the extent to which HABs impact resources other than shellfish and fish. Human illnesses and fatalities due to five syndromes associated with harmful algae are being recorded around the world in increasingly large numbers.{/P} {B} {P}The Fifth IGBP Scientific Advisory Council Meeting{BR} Nairobi, Kenya, {/FONT}{I}1 to 7 September 1998{/P} {/B}{/I}{P}Sheila Lunter, {/P} {P}Despite a postponement and a preparation that was marked by adversity, a successful Fifth Scientific Advisory Council (SAC-V) Meeting of IGBP was held in Kenya. Many African scientists attended the meeting, which had a total participation of some 170 scientists. SAC-V was hosted by the Kenyan National Academy of Science (KNAS), with the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) generously offering the use of the conference facilities at their headquarters in Gigiri, just outside Nairobi.{/P} {P}{B}NEW RESEARCH PROJECT UNDERWAY{/P} {P}Health and the environment{/P} {/B}{/FONT}{P}Heike Schroeder, {/P} {P}Health has become one of the major new integrative global change research areas, and indeed the links between environment and health are becoming increasingly visible and complex. Extreme weather patterns highlighted by the recent El Niño cycle, emergent diseases, viral mutations and environmental degradation are all contributing to this development.{/P} {P}{B}DIVERSITAS/IBOY{/B} {br}An International Biodiversity Observation Year{/P} {P} H.A. Mooney, C.S. Adam, A. Larigauderie and J. Sarukhan.{/P} {P}{B}What is DIVERSITAS?{/B}{/P} {/B}{P}DIVERSITAS is an international programme of biodiversity science which was created in 1991. It is cosponsored by six international scientific organisations: the International Union of Biological Sciences (IUBS), the Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE), the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO), the International Union of Microbiological Societies (IUMS), the International Council for Science (ICSU), and the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP).{/P} {B}{P}DIVERSITAS - START - WCRP - IGBP - IHDP{/P} {P}Chair & Directors Forum{/P} {/B}{P}Heike Schroeder,{/P} {P}Global Change System for Analysis, Research and Training (START) and the Global Environmental Change (GEC) programmes held their annual Chairs and Directors Forum on 14-16 August 1998, in Bonn, Germany. The purpose of this Forum is to provide an opportunity for the programmes' Executive Directors and Scientific Chairs to exchange information on an informal basis and discuss new and ongoing activities and ways for the programmes to enhance collaboration and streamline their research efforts.{/P} {P}{BR} {I}{B}Spotlights on science{/I}{/B} {/P} {P}{B}The International Union of Crystallography{/B}{/P} {/B}{P}M. Dacombe{/P} {P}The International Union of Crystallography (IUCr) was formed in 1947 and formally admitted to ICSU on 7 April in that year. Its main objects are: to promote international cooperation in crystallography; to contribute to the advancement of crystallography in all its aspects; to facilitate international standardization of methods, of units, of nomenclature and of symbols used in crystallography; and to form a focus for the relations of crystallography to other sciences. It does this primarily through its publications, the work of its Commissions and Sub-Committees, and its triennial Congresses.{/P} {P}{B}International Union for Pure and Applied Biophysics {br}IUPAB{/P} {/B}{P}A.C.T. North,{/P} {P}Most biophysicists have probably had the same experience as me and been faced by a look of blank incomprehension after giving the answer "biophysics, "to the question "what is your subject?".{/P} {B}{I}Meeting reports{/P} {/I}{P}ICSU/CODATA{BR} 16th Biennial International CODATA Conference and General Assembly{/P} {I}{P}Habitat Center, New Delhi, India,{BR} Nov. 8 - 14, 1998{/P} {/B}{/I}{P}Report by Professor Paul G. Mezey, {P}{B}SATELLITE MEETINGS{BR} {/B}The Conference was preceded by two CODATA Task Group Satellite Meetings and Symposia, held at the Indian National Science Academy, New Delhi. On November 6 and 7, 1998, the CODATA Task Group for Data Sources in Asia-Oceania held a Meeting and Seminar, whereas on November 7, 1998, the CODATA Task Group for Data/information and Visualization held a Study-Tutorial Workshop on "Information, Visualization, and Management of Heterogeneous Systems". Both meetings were well attended. The high scientific level and the special Tutorial feature of the Data/Information and Visualization Task Group Symposium provided inspiration for future, similar meetings.{/P} {P}{/P} {B}{P}Electronic Publishing in Science {br}Report on a joint AAAS/ICSU Press/UNESCO Workshop in Paris{/P} {/B}{P}D.F. Shaw, {BR} {P}Forty-three participants accepted invitations from the joint organising committee and represented an international range of interests covering the Universities, Learned Societies, National Science Academies, National and Institutional Libraries and STM Publishers, as well as commercial information brokers and consultants.{/P} {B}{P}Dairy Foods in Health{BR} International Conference, Wellington, New Zealand{/P} {/B} {P}Specialists from 22 countries as far apart as Canada, Finland, Japan and Thailand attended the International Dairy Federation's Nutrition Week from 9-11 March 1998. The New Zealand hosts, the Milk and Health Research Centre of Masey University and the New Zealand Dairy Research Institute, welcomed 191 participants to an ambitious programme with leading nutrition scientists from all around the world. A dinner cruise was arranged on Wellington Harbour for participants. The kind weather and the festival atmosphere in Wellington combined to make the event enjoyable for all.{/P} {B}{I}{P}Calendar{/P}{/B}{/I} Details of forthcoming events from 1 January 1999 - 25 March 1999 {B}{P}ICSU/IGFA{BR} Global Change Research{/B}{/P} {P}The International Group of Funding Agencies for Global Change Research (IGFA) is an informal body of representatives of agencies and ministries of 21 countries plus the European Union responsible for the funding of global change research.{/P} {B}{P}{I}Science and technology{/I}{/B}{/P} {P}{B}Identification of science and technology priorities for Asian Regional Cooperation{/B}{/P} {P}B. Babuji{/P} {P}The following topics were presented for discussion:{/P} {LI}Country presentations on S & T status {/LI} {LI}Current and emerging global S & T senario {/LI} {LI}Identification of priority areas for Asian regional cooperation {/LI} {LI}Modes of cooperation {/LI} {LI}Resource mobilisation and way forward{/LI} {/P} {P}{B}Easing the burden on young scientists{/B}{/P} {/B}{P}Daniel Schaffer, {/P} {P}Two of the principal aims of the Third World Academy of Sciences (TWAS) are to promote the careers of young scientists in the developing world and to help scientific institutions in the South to strengthen their decision-making and research capabilities. These two goals came together in the TWAS Prize for young scientists.{/P} {P}{B}South's Centres of Excellence{/B}{BR} {/B}(New volume published){/P} {P}Daniel Schaffer,{/P} {P}The Third World Network of Scientific Organizations (TWNSO), in collaboration with the South Centre and Third World Academy of Sciences (TWAS), has announced the publication of the second edition of Profiles for Scientific Exchange and Training in the South. With more than 430 entries, the book represents a unique inventory of the capabilities and accomplishments of the most prominent research and training centres in the developing world.{/P} {B}{I}{P}news in brief{/I}{/B}{/P} {P}{B}Fields Medal and the Nevanlinna Prize {br}International Congress of Mathematicians, Berlin 1998{/P} {/B}{P}In physics or literature they have the Nobel Prize, and in mathematics there is the "Fields Medal". This highest scientific award for mathematicians was presented at the opening ceremony of the "International Congress of Mathematicians" to Richard E. Borcherds, Maxim Kontsevich, William Timothy Gowers and Curtis T. McMullen. The International Mathematical Union also awarded the "Nevanlinna Prize" for outstanding work in the field of theoretical computer science to the mathematician Peter Shor.{/P} {B}{P}Food Security {I}{br}What have Sciences to Offer?{/P} {/B}{/I}{P}David Hall,{/P} {P}The author of this report was asked to examine what opportunities exist for the sciences to play in ensuring food security in the next century. In parallel to this, would there be a role for ICSU members and scientists of varied disciplines to play, which would be effective and not duplicate existing efforts?{/P} {B}{I}{P}Electronic Journal Publishing{/P} {/I}{P}A Reader{/P} {/B}{P}To further support our work in the strengthening and development of the dissemination of research results, we are in the process of bringing together a series of articles and Internet documents which we have found interesting and insightful.{/P} {/I}{B}{P}INASP adds new section to its web site{/P} {P}{/P} {/B}{P}INASP Links and Resources "Access to Information"{/P} {B}{P}Discovery of Polonium and Radium{/P} {P}{/P} {/B}{P}An International Conference on {I}The Discovery of Polonium and Radium: its scientific and philosophical consequences, benefits and threats to mankind {/I}was organized by the Polish Government in Warsaw in September 1998.{/P} {B}{P}TREASURER OF THE IUBMB RESIGNS{/P} {/B}{P}Dr R. Brian Beechey, the Treasurer of IUBMB, has tendered his resignation as from 31 December 1998, citing his wish to pursue other interests.{/P} {B}{I}{P}Book Marketing and Distribution:{/P} {/I}{/B}{P}A practical handbook for publishers in developing countries and related training programmes{/P} {B}{P}New edition of ICSU's blue book{/B} {br}UNIVERSALITY OF SCIENCE:{/P} {P}{/P} {P}A new edition of the handbook of ICSU's Standing Committee on Freedom in the Conduct of Science SCFCS has been printed.{/P} {B}{I}house news{/P} {/I}{P}New Environmental Science Officer appointed at ICSU{/B}{/P} {P}Anne Lorigouderie joined the ICSU Secretariat as Environmental Sciences Officer in September.{/P} {B}{P}Qiu Wei joins us from CAST{/P} {/B}{P}Qiu Wei succeeds Zhang Hong, on secondment from the China Association for Science and Technology for another period of six months as of November 1998. {/P} {B}{P}Catherine moves on{/P} {/B}{P}After four years at the ICSU Secretariat, Catherine Leonard left in December. During her time at ICSU, Catherine's responsibilities have included administering the ICSU Grants Programme and editing the ICSU Year Book. {/I}{P}{B}ICSU Grants Programme for 1999{/B}{/P} {P}ICSU is pleased to announce that around one million dollars has been awarded to ICSU bodies under the ICSU grants programme for 1999. Almost half that amount has been allocated to category I grants in the $50,000 - $100,000 range for new innovative projects of high profile potential.{/P} {B}{P}Looking ahead to the millennium{/P} {P}{/P} {/B}{P}For 2000, ICSU is opening up its Category I grants programme to all of ICSU's Joint Initiatives - as it did for the 1999 Programme- and to all ICSU Scientific Associates.{/P} {B}Obituary{/B}{/P} {/I}{P}Lars Ernster 1920-98{I} {/P} {/B}{/I}{P}Lars Ernster died in his 79th year in November. Although born in Budapest he spent almost all his working life in Sweden and most of his academic life at the University of Stockholm. He began a close and long association with ICSU in 1969 when he was appointed Secretary of the Swedish National Committee on Biochemistry and this led to greater demands on his organizational talents when shortly after this he took over the Chairmanship of the Organizing Committee for the highly successful 9th International Congress on Biochemistry, which was held in Stockholm in 1973.{/P} {B}{P}New Directions in Chemistry{/P} {P}15-17 July 1999, Hong Kong{/P} {P}{/P} {/B}{P}The first IUPAC Workshop on Advanced Materials: Nanostructured Systems (IUPAC-WAM-1) will be held on the campus of the Hong Kong University for Science and Technology from 15-17 July 1999.{/P} {P}Copyright 1998 ICSU Press
Soğuk Savaş'ın sona ermesi ile birlikte, Türkiye Cumhuriyeti kendisini büyük bir güven boşluğunun ve "stratejik önem" tartışmasının içerisinde buldu. Soğuk Savaş boyunca Sovyet yayılmacılığına karşı Batı'nın ileri karakolu fonksiyonunu üstlenmiş olan Türkiye, artık bu önemini yitiriyor muydu? Uğruna binlerce evladını Kore'de feda etmeyi göze alacak kadar önem ve değer atfettiği NATO'nun güvenlik şemsiyesi, artık kapanıyor muydu? Batı "kullanma süresi bitmiş" edası ile Türkiye'yi bir köşeye atacak ve ilgisini esirgeyecek miydi? Ve nihayet, cadı kazanını andıran coğrafyasında Türkiye, terrörizm, fundemantalist saldırılar, ayrılıkçılık, risk ve belirsizlik gibi Soğuk Savaş sonrası dünyanın temel sorunları ile başbaşa mı bırakılıyordu? Bu güven bunalımı ve yalnızlık pisikolojisi öyle boyutlara ulaştı ki, Türkiye, ekonomik getirilerinin yanında, bu bunalımdan kurtulmak ve bölgede istikrarı sağlamak için, Karadeniz Ekonomik İşbirliği (KEİ) örgütünün kurulmasında öncülük görevini üslenmeyi bir çözüm yolu olarak gördü.Ancak bu endişe ve öngörülerin hiçbiri gerçekleşmedi. Çünkü, Türkiye'nin imdadına, yine hem dert kaynağı hem de zenginlik nedeni olan jeopolitik konumu yetişti. NATO'nun Soğuk Savaş sonrasında değişen ve risk ve belirsizlik kavramını esas alan yeni stratejik konsepti içerisinde; biri, Doğu Avrupa'dan başlayarak Rusya üzerinden Asya'ya uzanan, ve diğeri, Kuzey Afrika üzerinden Orta Doğu ve Türkiye'yi de içine alarak Kafkaslar'a uzanan belirsizlik ve istikrarsızlık yaylarının tam merkezinde kalan Türkiye, önemi Soğuk Savaş dönemine göre bir kat daha artmış olarak ortaya çıktı. Balkanlar'da 1990'lı yılların başından itibaren meydana gelen gelişmeler ve Orta Asya'daki 200 milyar varillik Hazar petrolleri ve doğal gaz kaynakları, ve bu kaynaklara hakim bağımsızlığını yeni kazanmış Orta Asya Türk Cumhuriyetlerinin üzerindeki Türk nüfuzu, Türkiye'yi bölgede vazgeçilmez bir stratejik ortak haline getirdi. İşte bu durum, Türkiye'de en yetkili ağızlarca "Adriyatik'ten Çin Seddine Türk dünyası ve Türk nüfuz alanı" sözleri ile dile getirildi. Böylece Türkiye, korkulanın aksine, elinde birçok stratejik kozu bulunduran bir bölgesel güç olma yoluna girmiş bulunuyordu.Ortaya çıkan bu yeni konjonktür, herkesten çok, büyük bir imparatorluktan nispeten sınırlı ve küçük bir devlet haline dönüşmüş olmanın sıkıntılarını ve psikolojisini yaşayan Rusya'yı rahatsız etti. Çünkü, en üst seviyeden ifade edilen Adriyatik'ten Çin Seddi'ne uzanan bu bölge Rusların tarihi nüfuz bölgelerini, ve 1993 tarihli Rus Askeri Doktrini'nde ifade edildiği gibi "arka bahçelerini", yani Kafkasları kapsıyordu. Ve bu rahatsızlığa Stratejik değere sahip Hazar petrollerinin hangi yoldan dünya pazarlarına ulaştırılacağı mücadelesi eklenince, Soğuk Savaş döneminde karşılıklı sinir harbi şeklinde cereyan eden mücadele, 19. Yüzyılda İngiltere ile Rusya arasındaki mücadeleye benzer şekilde "Büyük Oyun"a dönüştü. Bu "Büyük Oyun"dan galip çıkabilmek için, Türkiye'nin çok hassas ve dengeleri kollayan bir politika izlemesi gerekmektedir. Bu bağlamda, önceleri Kafkasları Ruya'nın "arka bahçe"si olarak gören Amerika Birleşik Devletleri 1997 Baharından itibaren politika değiştirerek, Kafkasları ABD'nin hayati çıkarlarının bulunduğu bölge olarak tanımlamaya ve Hazar Petrollerinin dünya pazarlarına ulaştırılmasında Bakü-Ceyhan seçeneğini resmi olarak desteklemeye başladı. Açıkça ifade ettiği diğer bir gerçek ise Türkiye'yi Kafkaslarda stratejik ortak olarak gördüğü idi. Bu durum Türkiye'nin Rusya karşısındaki durumunu güçlendiren önemli bir gelişme oldu.Soğuk Savaş sonrasında Türkiye ile Rusya arasındaki mücadelenin kızışmasına yardımcı olan diğer önemli bir unsur, NATO'nun 1994'ten itibaren karara bağladığı "Genişleme " stratejisi oldu. NATO doğuya doğru genişleyecek ve Rusya'yı, Soğuk Savaş dönemindeki "çevreleme" politikasına benzer şekilde kıskaca alacaktı. Bu gelişme, Rusya'nın çok büyük tepkisini çekti ve tekrar Soğuk Savaş dönemine dönme tehditlerine ve Rusya'nın dünyayı tekrar bloklaşmaya götürebilecek, Çin, Hindistan, İran ve Ermenistan gibi ülkelerle bir takım stratejik işbirliği ve itifak arayışlarına neden oldu. Hatta Rusya, NATO'nun bu stratejisinin bir parçası olarak gördüğü ve de nüfuz alanı konusundaki mücadelesinden de dolayı, Türkiye'yi direkt tehdit edecek tarzda ülkeyi bölmeyi içeren PKK yanlısı stratejiler benimsedi. Nitekim 1998 Temmuzundan itibaren Suriye'den çıkarak Rusya'ya giden terörist başı APO'nun Rusya'da gördüğü himaye, ve Moskova yakınlarındaki terörist eğitim kampı ve Kürt evi bu stratejinin sonraki yansımaları niteleğinde idi. Bu stratejinin diğer bir kolu ise Türkiye etrafında oluşturulmak istenen "Ortodoks Çevreleme" politikasıdır. Kosova krizi konusunda Rusya ve Yunanistan'nın takındıkları tavır, ve Rusya'nın büyük krize neden olan S-300 füze bataryalarını Güney Kıbrıs Rum Kesimi'ne ısrarla teslim etmeyi isteyerek, Türkiye'yi doğrudan suçlaması ile adadaki işgalci kuvvetlerden bahsetmesi ise, Rus stratejisinin diğer yansımalarıdır.Tarih ders alınacak en güzel kaynaktır. Tarihsel süreç, yönetimde hangi rejim bulunursa bulunsun, Rusya'nın yüzyıllar boyunca hiç değişmediğini ve "sıcak denizlere inme" diye özetlenebilecek tarihi ihtiraslarını her fırsatta gerçeklemeye çalıştığını gösteriyor. Ve yine tarihi tecrübe, Rusya'nın Batılı büyük devletler tarafından Avrupa'dan ve Balkanlar'dan her atıldığında ve doğuya sürüldüğünde, Rusların bir süre sonra doğuda güçlenerak tekrar batıya ve yaşamsal çıkarlarının bulunduğuna inandıkları Balkanlara döndükleri, ve bu her geri dönüş sonrasında Boğazlar ve Anadolu toprakları üzerinde Rus taleplerinin ortaya çıktığı görülüyor. Tamamı ile Türk devletinin Ruslara karşı hayatta kalabilme mücadelesi şeklinde geçmiş bulunan Ondokuzuncu yüzyıl ile, Yirminci yüzyılda meydana gelen olaylar gözönüne alınarak yapılan Türk-Rus mücadelesi için mukayeseli bir araştırma, sürekli birbirine benzer gelişmelerin meydana geldiğini göstermekte ve yaşananlardan pek ders alınmadığı anlaşılmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, 1856 Paris Anlaşması ile ortaya çıkan konjonktür ile, Soğuk Savaş sonrasında ortaya çıkan konjonktür birbirine çok benzemektedir. Paris Anlaşması'ndan sonra doğuya sürülen Rusya'nın 20 yıl gibi kısa bir süre sonra tekrar Batıya döndüğünü, ve Avrupa'daki çekişmelerden ve oluşan dengelerden yararlanarak, 1877-1878 Türk-Rus harbi ile Osmanlı Devleti'ne en ağır yenilgiyi tattırdığını ve devleti parçalama aşamasına getirdiğini görüyoruz. O nedenle, NATO'nun doğuya genişlemesi Rusya'nın tekrar geri dönmesini olanaksız hale getirecek fırsatlar sunarken, Soğuk Savaş sonrası ortaya çıkan konjonktür ise Türkiye'nin bir bölgesel güç olmasını sağlayacak stratejik avantajlar doğurmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, ondokuzuncu ve yirminci yüzyıllarda meydan gelen olaylar arasındaki şaşırtıcı benzerliği ortaya koyarak benzer hatalara düşülmesini önlemek ve NATO'nun doğuya genişlemesi ve Soğuk Savaş sonrası konjonktür ile su yüzüne çıkan fırsatların değerlendirilmesi mevzuunda perspektif verebilmektir.ABSTRACTWith the end of the Cold War, Turkish Republic found itself at the center of such debates as a great security vacuum and "strategic significance". Was Turkey, which functioned for years as the forward post for the western interests against the Soviet expansionism during the Cold War, losing its significance any more? Was the NATO's security umbrella, to which Turkey attached so great importance that it even sacrificed thosands of Turkish troops in Korean War in 1950, pursing up now? Would the West put Turkey aside and treat it in such a manner that "its expiry date had come", and also refrain from granting its concern on Turkey? And finally, would the West leave Turkey alone with such questions of the post Cold War world as terrorism, fundamentalist attacks, apartheid, risks and instability in geography of turmoil? This security crisis and the psychology of loneliness reached to such a degree that, Turkey regarded the leading role in foundation of organisation of the Black Sea Cooperation (BSC) as the sole solution to its problems. None of these worries and considerations, however, came true, because Turkey's geopolitic position, which has always become the matter of either prosperity or cause of questions for Turkey, came to its help this time. Within NATO's new strategic concept renewed after the end of the Cold War, which considered the concepts of risk and instability as its principles to NATO's worldwide policy, Turkey remained at just the center of two arcs of uncertainities, the first of which extended from Eastern Europe to Asia through Russia, and the later of which extended from Sothern Europe and the Balkans to the Caucasus through the Northern Africa, the Middle East and Turkey. Thus, Turkey appeared in the world scene as its significance increased twofold comparing to that during the Cold War. The developments in the Balkans beginning from early 1990s, 200 milliard-barrel oil reserves and natural gas resources in the Central Asia, and the Turkish influence over the newly independent Turkic republics made Turkey the inrelinquishable strategic partner in the region. And this situation had been expressed by top-level authorities in Turkey by, "the Turkic world and Turkish zone of influence from the Adriatic up to Chinese great Wall". And Turkey turned out to be a regional power, which gets hold of many strategic trumps at hand, in contrast to what was anticipated in the beginning.This new conjecture, which has emerged following the end of the Cold War, rose greater unrest in Russia than in any other state, which was experiencing the difficulties and psychology of a state having shrinked from a huge empire to a relatively small and slight restricted power, because the zone, which had been described by top autorities in Turkey as the Turkish zone of influence, also involved the Russian ancient sphere of influence and the Caucasus, the Russian "near abroad", as defined in the new Russian military doctrine in 1993. And when the struggle on through which route the strategically significant Caspian oil will be transported to the world markets, is to be added to this unrest in Russia, the fight between Russia and Turkey, which took place in a form of "mutual war of nerves" during the Cold War, has been transformed into a contention similar to "the Great Game" between Russia and Great Britain in the nineteenth century. Turkey needs to pursue a very delicate and balance monitoring policy against Russia, in order to accomplish becoming winner in this new "Great Game" in twentieth century. In this regard, the US, which initially regarded the Caucasus as the Russian "near abroad", changed its policy starting from 1997 Spring and began stating that the Caucasus was also the region, where the American vital interests laid and has also given start to a direct support the Bakü-Ceyhan alternative as from this date. Another American confession was that they deemed Turkey as their strategic partner in the Caucasus, which mostly enhanced Turkey's position in its struggle against Russia.Another reason contributing to the increase in tension between Turkey and Russia after the end of the Cold War had been the NATO's eastward enlargement strategy, which was resolved in 1994 Brussel Summit. NATO would expand eastward and contain Russia in such a fashion similar to the "policy of containment" during the Cold War years. These developments called for great reactions from Russia, and caused some Russian searches of strategic alliance and cooperation with such states as China, India and Iran. In fact, Russia saw Turkey as a crucial part of this NATO strategy and adopted PKK prone strategies, as a response to Turkey's increasing influence in the Caucasus and its contribution to Chechnya, which aimed to divide the state's integration. As a matter of fact, the Russian protection to terrorist leader APO in Moscow after it had been forced to abandon Syria in July 1998, terrorist training camps near Moscow and Kurdish House in Moscow were all the reflections of the Russian policy against Turkey. Another branch of this strategy was the "Orthodox containment" around Turkey. The Russian and Greek policy in Kosovo crisis, and Russian insistence on delivery of S-300 missiles to Southern Cyprus, by accusing Turkish forces in Northern Cyprus of being illegal intruders in the island are also the other reflections of this Russian strategy.History is the most correct way of taking lessons. Historical cource indicates that Russia has never changed for centuries, and has always tried to realise its ancient goal of "gaining access to warm seas" in summary, on every occasion, no matter which ideology or regime has been in power in Russia. Again, the historical experiences show that after Russia had been driven eastward by European big powers, Russia has always turned back to the Balkans after a while, where they believed their vital interests existed, by having summed up its strength in the East. It is also seen that Russian demands on Turkish Straits and Anatolia mostly coincide with the Russian return to Europe and to the Balkans from the East. When we carry out a comparative study on the Turko-Russian fight in history, particularly by taking the events in the nineteenth century, which all went by with Turkish struggles of survival against Russians, and developments in twentieth century into consideration, we easily see that very similar events occurred in history, but unfortunately no lessons from the progressing occurences had been taken. In this respect, the conjecture appeared immediately after the Paris Agreement in 1856 mostly resembles to the conjecture, which has come out following the disintegration of the former Soviet Union in early 1990s. Russia turned back to the West and to the Balkans in just 20 years after it had been driven eastward following Paris Agreement. Russia inflicted the greatest losses and defeat on Turks in 1877-1878 Turkish-Russian War, and brought the Ottoman State on the verge of disintegration. For that reason, while NATO's eastward enlargement offeres chances for making Russia's return unlikely, the post Cold War conjecture, on the other hand, bear some strategic advantages, which would provide Turkey to become a regional power in its geography.The aim of this study is, first of all, trying for prevention of repitition of the same failures as in history, by bringing out the bewildering resemblance between the events in nineteenth and twentieth centuries and secondly giving partially perspective on evaluation of the opportunities, having emerged after the end of the Cold War and NATO's eastward expansion strategy.
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Fifty years is a long enough time to dissipate the impact of war. In the United States, the Vietnam War is no longer much discussed. Scholars still plow the field, but the war that tore America apart, spurred a counterculture movement, killed 57,000 Americans (and vastly more Vietnamese, Laotians and Cambodians), led to a restructuring of the U.S. military and the all-volunteer force, and was an impetus to Desert Storm no longer shapes the discourse.My students were born in 2002 or 2003; they're voting age. Even those with living grandparents who served in Vietnam don't know much if anything about the conflict. Of course, there have been intervening failures that proved costly, although not on the same scale. But proximity bias — the hard-wired human tendency to accord greater importance to things that are closer than others in time or distance — ensured that the mayhem generated by the Iraq and Afghan Wars would eclipse the awfulness of Vietnam.The Yom Kippur War of 1973 has likewise receded in the Israeli imagination. But its specter is more complex. The 2,500 Israeli soldiers killed (a fraction of the 15,000 Arabs who perished) was three times the per capita human cost of the Vietnam War to the United States. I was in Israel during that time, and everyone knew someone who'd been killed. The war was also far shorter, about 10 days, so the casualty list had an outsized emotional impact. It was not the long slog of Vietnam, but rather an avalanche.Early in the war, Syrian armor destroyed the Israeli tank brigade deployed to the Golan Heights and reached Gesher B'not Yaakov (Jisr Banat Yaqub). Just beyond it was the Jezreel Valley. The prospect of a large Syrian armored formation penetrating the Israeli heartland was as ghastly for Israelis as it must have been thrilling for the Syrians. The United States has never experienced anything like this, including 9/11.In the space of this instant, violence burgeoned. The largest tank battle since World War II, when German and Soviet armored juggernauts collided at Kursk, unfolded on the Golan. Fierce battles developed in the Sinai and then on the left bank of Suez, where Israeli forces encircled an entire Egyptian army. A week into the war, the U.S. launched its largest-ever intra-war arms transfer. For days, U.S. C-5 cargo aircraft touched down at Israeli airfields every six minutes. The airlift, however, occurred after Israel had regained its balance and counterattacked, halting an hour outside of Damascus and holding Egyptian territory — in addition to the Sinai, where Israel stopped the main thrust of Egyptian armor toward the mountains passes and destroyed the advancing units.The war also included other dramatic moments. Apparently believing that the Soviets were preparing to intervene militarily on Syria's behalf, the Nixon administration raised the United States' nuclear readiness level, an extraordinary step. Saudi Arabia led an OPEC oil embargo against the United States that carried profound implications for its economic and political stability for the ensuing decade, bringing the so-called long summer of postwar economic growth to an end and guaranteeing an era of sluggish economic growth and high inflation.The long-term effects of the war on Israel were profound as well. The outcome, despite the phenomenal recovery of Israeli forces under the much maligned but in fact highly competent IDF chief of staff, was traumatically dislocating for an Israeli public accustomed to thinking that its victory in the 1967 war rendered the state immune to Arab military challenge.Within four years, the Labor Party that had dominated Israeli politics in one form or another since 1948 was dislodged. Trust in the old elites was shattered. The intelligence community failed to credit the Egyptian and Syrian commitment to waging war. Across the board there was a conviction that the conditions under which the Arabs would launch an offensive simply did not exist. And Military Intelligence disregarded Mossad's success in recruiting a senior member of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat's entourage who underscored that a war was in the cards. Moreover, the Israeli prime minister, Golda Meir, who had presided over the disaster, had heeded stern guidance from Nixon and Kissinger not to preempt Arab war preparations when these were finally acknowledged 24 hours before the start of hostilities.Whether or not this was a wise call on Washington's part, it certainly increased the butcher's bill Israel was to pay and undermined the Labor government. Meir would come under attack later for having ignored Sadat's peace feelers following the 1969 War of Attrition along the Suez Canal. Sadat, however, tended to frame his overtures as demands for an upfront Israeli withdrawal from all of the Sinai Peninsula, which the Israeli government could not meet. There was plenty of blame to go around. In any case, combined with serious ethnic tensions generated by the political mobilization of Mizrahim — Jews who had immigrated from the Arab states of the Middle East and North Africa — the cratering of Labor credibility enabled the ascendance of the Likud Party.Half a century later, what lingering significance does the war have? Israel and Saudi Arabia are negotiating normalization, which will entail a civilian Saudi nuclear capability that is inherently dual-purpose. The Abraham Accords have already normalized Israel's relations with Bahrain, the UAE, Sudan, and Morocco. Egypt and Jordan have longstanding peace treaties with Israel. Syria has been neutered by a long, destructive civil war. Lebanon has ceased to exist as a functioning state and has not engaged Israel in hostilities since 2006. Two eviscerating wars with the United States removed Iraq as a potential combatant of the old rejectionist front.A cataclysmic ground war between Israel and its neighbors has been inconceivable during this veritable Age of Aquarius. But if the Yom Kippur War is no longer relevant, the present irenic reality — excluding the West Bank and Gaza — is largely due to the instrumentalization of that conflict by the Nixon administration for the purpose of peacemaking. One really can't contemplate these developments without implicitly thinking about the 1973 war.Another potent outcome of the war was the diplomatic process that surrounded the ceasefire and the years that followed. Kissinger gets credit for this, not unfairly. He was not one to waste a crisis. He seized the opportunity the war presented to use Sadat's evident interest in joining the Western camp and Israel's reliance on American support to bind each closer to Washington while crowding out the Soviet Union. Although his diplomatic strategy yielded disengagement agreements on both fronts, the fact remains that Egypt and Israel had embarked on a quiet bilateral process even as the guns were still cooling.Sadat had waged the war to shatter the status quo by drawing Israeli blood and bringing the U.S. into the conflict. His goal was the negotiated return of Sinai to Egyptian control. The war, for him, had a clear and well-defined political purpose. Although the seven years that preceded the Camp David Accords were at times touch and go — down to the climactic talks themselves — the so-called peace process would be difficult to imagine without the bloody impetus of 1973. Kissinger's key insight, regrettably abandoned by his successors but seemingly grasped now by Beijing, is that it pays to maintain ties with both sides in a conflict.As the Arab-Israeli conflict has devolved to Israel and the Palestinians, this lesson of the 1973 war has faded for Israel as well. Israel's use of force now has no political objective. Its purpose is solely conflict management and deterrence. To borrow from Lord Carrington's verdict on NATO, it is to keep the Palestinians down, the U.S. out, and wealthy Persian Gulf states in.Yet, perversely, the possibility of change is in the air. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right coalition partners are less interested in managing the level of violence on the West Bank than in informally annexing it. Their commitment to Israeli settlement of the West Bank is greater than their interest in grand geopolitical deals that might boost the Tel Aviv stock exchange but defer redemption of biblical lands. One could construe the hard right's agenda as restoring a true political objective to Israel's fight with the Palestinians.The 1973 war also altered Israeli military doctrine. Planners have recognized that — beginning with that war — Israel has not won any major ones. (Neither has the United States.) The reasons for this are legion, but one stands out: the losers do not concede defeat. They take a licking but keep on ticking. Hence the most recent development in Israel's military doctrine, accorded the acronym Mabam, meaning "the battles between the wars."The idea is that major wars are no longer decisive and will therefore recur periodically. The best course is to delay these wars and weaken adversaries' ability to wage them by fighting draining low-level battles in the interim. This makes some sense, naturally, but militates against any attempt to leverage the fighting to achieve durable peace. This applies to the Palestinians as well. Their violence is expressive, perhaps reflecting their view that there is no conceivable political objective.There's a larger theme here, though. The international system was vastly different in 1973. The Cold War framework in which the United States and Soviet Union conducted their foreign policies and made it possible for Sadat to conduct a war with such a bold but cogent purpose is long gone. We will see whether the U.S.-China in the Middle East recreates it.The leftist post-colonial Arab states that fought Israel are scarcely even remembered. The Israeli state and society that fought the Yom Kippur War, like the America that waged war in Vietnam, no longer exists. The values that animated it no longer shape the nation's thoughts and actions.Fifty years after the war, this should come as no surprise. In the ongoing demonstrations against judicial reform in Israel, one can see veterans of 1973 claiming that their wartime sacrifice would be betrayed by the triumph of the hard right. They are correct, but they're old duffers and out of touch with young Israeli mainstream voters, who, if they dwell on the 1973 war at all, likely see the left as the guilty party. Thus, policy makers, mostly in the West, can noodle about the war's lessons for diplomacy and statecraft, but for Israel — and the Arabs — it's ancient history.
Background: Quality of life is an important area of concern reflecting the health status and well-being of older people. It is a multidimensional concept, and older people often value social relationships as important elements in their quality of life. Previous studies have shown that information and communications technology (ICT) has the potential to enhance older people's social interactions. However, ICT designers often fail to consider the special needs of this user group. This has resulted in usability issues that contribute to low technology acceptance among them. Tangible user interface (TUI), which couples digital information with physical object, has been considered a more intuitive user interface for older people. Despite its potential, research in TUI for the older people's technology acceptance, social interactions, and quality of life has not been fully explored. There is therefore a need to design and develop TUI applications that accommodate the special needs of older people and study their impact on home-dwelling older people's technology acceptance, social interactions, and quality of life. Aims: This research's overarching goal is to explore how TUI can impact on home-dwelling older people's technology acceptance and quality of life by enhancing their social interactions. The main aims of the study are threefold: to study the-state-of-the-art of TUI for the older people's social interactions and identify the knowledge gaps in this research field, to design and develop a TUI application based on the literature review and the older people's needs, and to study the impact of TUI use on the older people's technology acceptance, social interactions, and quality of life. Methods: The research consists of three main stages: the systematic literature review; the design and development of the TUI application, Tangible Cup; and the three-month empirical study evaluating the use of Tangible Cup in relations to technology acceptance, social interactions, and quality of life. The systematic literature review followed the guidelines for systematic literature reviews in software engineering. User-centered design and co-design approaches then guided the design, implementation, and usability testing process for developing the TUI application used in the empirical study. Finally, a mixed of qualitative and quantitative approach was used in the three-month empirical study with 20 older participants where they used Tangible Cup to make calls and talk to each other. Results: Systematic literature review (Article I): The findings show that although TUI was introduced 20 years ago, very little research on TUI for the older people's social interactions has been carried out, i.e. 21 relevant papers were identified. Several recommendations were identified for future research, including involving older people in the whole research process from designing to evaluating the prototype, investigating the effect of TUI on older people's social interactions and health, conducting interdisciplinary research and longitudinal study in TUI for their social interactions, and developing guidelines for designing TUI for them. Design and development of the TUI application (Article II): Tangible Cup was developed through four iterations of design, implementation and usability testing with 10 participants. Through the processes, a list of lessons learned was gathered which can serve as guidelines for what to consider when designing TUI for older people and when involving older people in the design process of TUI and general ICT. Empirical study (Articles III and IV): The quantitative data shows that 12 out of 16 participants (20 were recruited, but four withdrew after one month) had positive changes in their technology acceptance. No statistically significant change in the quality of life was found. A few statistically significant correlations were observed between changes in the dimensions of quality of life and the dimensions of technology acceptance. The strongest correlation was a positive correlation between the general assessment of quality of life with attitude in technology acceptance. This indicates that using Tangible Cup could help the participants feel more positive when using ICT and thus assess their quality of life better. The qualitative data shows that some participants enjoyed the conversations. They even thought of further developing the friendship and meeting in person. Usability challenges, such as failure to log out properly and no battery level indication on the cup attachment, were identified. Nevertheless, all the participants agreed about the potential of Tangible Cup. Through the qualitative data analysis, we have also identified the target user group that TUI can be suitable for. Conclusions: This interdisciplinary research contributes to adding new knowledge regarding TUI's potential for improving older people's technology acceptance, social interactions, and quality of life. When designing TUI for them, integrating TUI into their daily life and considering their diversity are important. The potential of TUI for the older people and research design considerations for implementing and evaluating TUI from the perspective of technology acceptance, social interactions, and quality of life over a longer period time frame are among the new knowledge that clinicians, practitioners, and policy-makers can utilize. ; Bakgrunn: Livskvalitet er et viktig begrep som gjenspeiler eldre menneskers helsetilstand og velvære. Det er et flerdimensjonalt begrep, og eldre mennesker vedsetter ofte sosiale relasjoner som viktige elementer i sin livskvalitet. Tidligere studier har vist at informasjons-og kommunikasjonsteknologi (IKT) har potensialer til å øke eldre menneskers sosial samhandling. Men IKT designere synes sjelden å ta hensyn til de spesielle kravene til denne brukergruppen. Dette har ført til problemer med brukervennlighet som kan resultere i at denne gruppen har lav akseptering av teknologi. 'Tangible user interface' (TUI), som kobler digital informasjon med fysisk objekt, er ansett som et mer intuitivt brukergrensesnitt for eldre mennesker. Til tross for potensialet til TUI, blir det forsket lite på TUI med hensyn til eldre menneskers akseptering av teknologi, sosial samhandling og livskvalitet. Det er derfor nødvendig å utforme og utvikle TUI applikasjoner som tilpasses de spesielle behovene til eldre menneskenes og studerer innvirkninger TUI har på deres akseptering av teknologi, sosial samhandling og livskvalitet. Mål: Denne studiens' overordnede mål er å utforske hvordan TUI kan påvirke hjemmeboende eldre menneskers akseptering av teknologi aksept og livskvalitet ved å forbedre deres sosial samhandling. Studien har følgende tre mål: Å studere rådende kunnskapsstatus pr i dag med hensyn til hvilken betydning TUI har for eldre menneskers sosial samhandling og identifisere kunnskapshull i dette forskningsfeltet, å utforme og utvikle en TUI applikasjon basert på litteraturgjennomgang og eldre menneskers behov, og å studere innvirkningen på eldre menneskers akseptering av teknologi, sosial samhandling og livskvalitet ved å bruke TUI. Metodologier: Studien består av tre hovedstadier: en systematisk litteraturgjennomgang; en utforming og utvikling av TUI applikasjonen, Tangible Cup; og en tre-måneders empirisk studie for å evaluere bruken av Tangible Cup i med hensyn til akseptering av teknologi, sosial samhandling og livskvalitet. Retningslinjer for systematisk litteraturgjennomgangen i programvareutvikling ble brukt i våres systematisk litteraturgjennomgang. Deretter brukte vi brukersentrert utvikling og co-design tilnærming i prosessen med utforming, implementering, og brukbarhetstesting for å utvikle TUI applikasjonen som ble brukt i den empirisk studien. Til slutt brukte vi en kombinasjon av kvalitativ og kvantitativ tilnærming i den tre-måneders studien der 20 eldre deltakere brukte Tangible Cup for å ringe og snakke med hverandre. Resultater: Systematisk litteraturgjennomgang (Artikkel I): Selv om TUI ble introdusert for 20 år siden, er det veldig lite forsket på i TUI med hensyn til eldre menneskers sosiale samhandling, dvs 21 relevante artikler ble identifisert. Forslag for fremtidige forskning ble presentert, og anbefalinger inkluderer å involvere eldre mennesker gjennom hele forskningsprosess (fra utforming til evaluering av prototypen), å undersøke effekten av å bruke TUI applikasjoner med hensyn til eldre menneskers sosial samhandling og helse, å gjennomføre tverrfaglig forskning og longitudinale studie i TUI for de eldre menneskers sosial samhandling, og å utvikle retningslinjer for å utforme TUI for de eldre mennesker. Utforming og utvikling av TUI applikasjonen (Artikkel II): Tangible Cup ble utviklet via fire iterasjoner av utforming, implementering og brukbarhetstesting med 10 deltakere. Gjennom disse prosessene ble nyttig lærdom som kan brukes som retningslinjer for hva bør vurderes når en utformer TUI for de eldre mennesker og når en involverer eldre mennesker i prosessen å utvikle TUI og IKT generelt, samlet. Empiriske studie (Artikkel III og IV): Kvantitative data viser at 12 av 16 deltakere (20 ble rekruttert, 4 trakk seg etter en måned) skåret høyere med hensyn til akseptering av teknologi. Ingen statistisk signifikant endring i livskvalitet ble observert. Noen statistiske signifikante sammenhenger ble observert mellom endringer i enkelte dimensjoner til livskvalitet og enkelte dimensjoner i akseptering av teknologi. Den sterkeste sammenhengen var en positiv sammenheng mellom den generelle vurderingen av livskvalitet og holdningen til akseptering av teknologi. Dette indikerer bruk av Tangible Cup kan føre til at deltakerne opplever det mer positivt i å bruke IKT. De kan dermed vurdere sin livskvalitet bedre. Kvalitative data viser at noen deltakere satte positiv pris på samtalene. De kunne tenke seg å videreutvikle vennskapet og etablere personlige møter. Utfordringer når det gjelder brukervennlighet, er for eksempel at de ikke klarte å logge ut på en riktig måte og manglende mulighet til å identifisere indikasjon av nivå på batteriet på 'cup attachment'. Alle deltakerne var likevel enige om Tangible Cup hadde positive potensiale. Gjennom den kvalitative dataanalyseringen har vi også identifisert målbrukergruppen som TUI kan være egnet for. Konklusjoner: Den tverrfaglige studien bidrar til nye kunnskaper om TUIs' potensialer i å forbedre de eldre menneskers akseptering av teknologi, sosial samhandling og livskvalitet. Når man utformer TUI for eldre mennesker, er det viktig å integrere TUI i deres daglige liv og ta hensyn til mangfoldet i den eldre befolkningsgruppen. Potensialet til TUI for eldre mennesker og betraktninger med hensyn til forskningsdesign ved implementere og evaluere TUI i relasjon til akseptering av teknologi, sosial samhandling og livskvalitet over en lengre periode representerer ny kunnskapene som klinikere, utøvere, politikere og andre beslutningstakere kan benytte av. ; publishedVersion
Nowadays electric propulsion has become a valid alternative to mechanical propulsion for large ships that require high speed. The electric propulsion advantages are well known and widely documented in the literature: higher dynamic performance of the electric propulsion motors; internal combustion engines separation from shafts; increased flexibility in space/zones subdivision; increased efficiency through the modulation of number of running generators; noise and vibration reduction; increasing in automation, with a consequent crew reduction. The use of electric propulsion along with the progressive increase, in number and power, in electrical loads used for ship services, led to the development of the All Electric Ship (AES) concept. Over the last years, the All Electric Ships (AESs) concept has begun to be adopted by the most important Navies, principally by the U.S. Navy, giving a boost to the technological research. An AES is a ship where all onboard electrical loads (including propulsion) are powered by a single electrical system, called Integrated Electrical System (IPS). The IPS requires careful design and management in order to ensure both high Power Quality standard and the continuity of the service. With the technological progress, the shipboard electrical systems have changed considerably, rising from few MW of installed power to values of the order of hundred MW, both in cruises and military ships. Especially in military vessels, considering the number of special devices that are present on board (weapon systems, communication equipment, radar, sonar, and missile guidance systems), a performing and reliable electrical systems is required. Moreover, it is necessary to notice that some of the new electrical pulsed loads specific to military applications (e.g. radar, electromagnetic launchers, etc.) together with electric drives for propulsion engines can cause strong disturbances to the system, thus causing the malfunction of other electric utilities that may endanger the continuity of the service. The penetration of power electronics converters is the main issue for the contribution of harmonic distortion in AC grids, which must be limited not to increase system power losses, and to allow the correct operation of system and user devices. Standards dictate the maximum admissible values of the total voltage harmonic distortion and of the individual harmonics amplitudes, as a function of the rated system voltage. The relatively limited short-circuit power available on board also exposes the IPS to significant voltage sags and flickers caused by switching and/or intermittent loads. In this scenario, DC electrical distribution systems can be very attractive, thanks to their intrinsic immunity to harmonic problems. If DC micro-grids are interfaced to AC networks by means of Front End Converters (FECs), both AC/DC grid decoupling and considerable AC-side harmonic distortion reduction can be achieved. In addition, they simplify the power supply of converter-fed loads and the interfacing of storage systems. The latter can perform several tasks, including ensuring power supply in case of AC grid loss, peak-shaving and levelling pulsating loads further improving both the quality and the continuity of supply to DC islands loads. In the light of the above, it is evident that the electric power system is of primary importance for a modern ship. Moreover, if high-performance is required, careful analysis of the disturbances in the power system is mandatory. In fact, in order to achieve a reliable and performing power system, together with a high-Power Quality, it is necessary to assess this situation and propose guidelines to be observed for the solution of various problems. The definition and evaluation of possible IPS architectures should take into account AC/DC protection devices in order to carry out an integrated analysis of the system. Different MVAC/MVDC electrical distribution layouts coupling with all-electric or hybrid propulsion (electric/diesel/gas turbine) needs to be accurately investigated to show its advantages in terms of reliability, safety and quality of power. The thesis focusses on the Naval Smart Grid (NaSG) research project completed in partnership with the University of Trieste and the Polytechnic University of Milan. The aim of the research is to produce useful results for the design of a new ship, equipped with the following innovative features: modular power system; subsystem flexible integration; efficiency improvement; security improvement; new weapon systems; survivability improvement and high Power Quality standard. The main focus was the study of methodologies/solutions able to improve and define the onboard Power Quality (PQ). The research project reports Power Quality analysis about aspects of continuity of service, harmonic disturbances, pulsed power loads impact on the system, electromechanical transient evaluation and use of power and energy storage systems. An exhaustive investigation was carried out on system architectures in frequency domain to identify resonances and non-linear loads to detect disturbance frequencies. Moreover, the guidelines for the correct coordination of all the elements of the power system design affecting system performance (protections, converters, control systems, energy storage systems, etc.) are reported. A brief abstract for each Chapter is reported. Chapter 1 and 2 - Overview of Electrical Naval Systems and Integrated Power System in Military Ships The chapter reports the complete state of the art on naval electrical system and a brief description of naval classification, showing technological improvements and historical evolution. Details about electric propulsion, electrical generation on board, energy distribution and network layout are carried out. A complete description of the main IPS military ships with their own architecture and features is reported. Chapter 3 - Methodologies for Harmonic Disturbances Analysis and Power Quality (Service Continuity) In the field of Power quality (harmonic content, asymmetries, voltage sags, power factor), methodologies applied for the analysis/detection of harmonic disturbances are reported with an overview of electrical systems dependability in order to evaluate the service continuity of the system. Harmonic distortion could affect equipment on shipboard causing its outages, consequently, in an island system, power distribution network should ensure high re-configurability after faults, damage or untimely switch off. However, the increased interest in system's safety and resilience generates, in turn, an increase in design burden necessary to analyze the consequences of faults and demonstrate the system's compliance with the relevant regulations. The chapter presents the models and calculation code used for simulation activities. A Simulink model for time domain analysis and for time varying non-linear load, as well as a Fortran model for harmonic domain are described. Chapter 4 and 5 - Characterization of a military aircraft carrier and Aircraft Cavour – Measurement campaign A measurement campaign onboard the ship Cavour was carried out with the aim to characterize the relevant electric loads on board military vessel and to validate the models of the system's components to be used. The analysis of data collected, allows to model the behavior of loads in terms of time and frequency domains, thus permitting their use for the required studies. Some specific electrical loads, such as new electrically pulsed loads specific for military applications (e.g. radar, electromagnetic launchers, etc.) with high distorted current absorption were identified. Their characterization was carried out in order to define their contribution to harmonic disturbances and their impact on the network. A model validation based on a measurement campaign is carried out. Chapter 6 - A New layout for an Integrated Power System Naval Unit-All Electric/Hybrid Different IPS architectures are defined: a full MVAC (Medium Voltage Alternate Current) power system, a hybrid MVAC plus MVDC/LVDC islands (Medium/Low Voltage Direct Current) and a MVAC 50-60 Hz, with a hybrid (electric/diesel/gas turbine) propulsion. In the architecture of the latter, the power of the installed engines is much lower than the first two cases. Chapter 7 - Network Equivalents in Harmonic Domain The needs to easily represent a complex network with high accuracy, lead to the development of a methodology based on aggregation of loads, creating a simplified network to carry out harmonic analysis. Different equivalent network models have been proposed that show their accuracy, through network impedances, and compare them with the overall representation of the network. The influence of cables was also studied. The best radial equivalent network was identified. Chapter 8 - Harmonic Analysis In order to propose appropriate solutions designed to improve power quality, the study of system impedance and power systems in frequency domain were studied. This analysis, carried out on the basis of the schematics and data load obtained in cooperation with the IT Navy, revealed some criticalities in the frequency range for both the systems architectures. As to full MVAC (Medium Voltage Alternate Current) power system and hybrid MVAC plus MVDC/LVDC islands, the aim was to evaluate whether or not the inclusion of capacitors (on shore, for power factor correction in shore connections) or filters (onboard, to reduce harmonic disturbances produced by propulsion systems) cause special issues, because of the high power of installed propulsion engines. Moreover, the advantages of DC island on electrical distribution in order to ensure high reliability and quality of service, in addition to the need to increase the efficiency of the ships' power systems are highlighted. For the MVAC 50-60 Hz layout, the goal is to show how the use of hybrid (electric/diesel/gas turbine) propulsion where the power of engines is significantly reduced as compared to previous cases could solve some issues relating to power quality aspects. Chapter 9 - Reliability Analysis Preliminary studies about dependability, re-configurability and some top-events relevant for the vessel, were evaluated for all electric MVAC/MVAC "hybrid" models. The analysis of electrical disconnection of load areas due to a fault or an untimely tripping of the switches caused by harmonic disturbances was carried out. Chapter 10 - Three-Phase Short Circuit Analysis For MVAC 50-60 Hz Layout Preliminary evaluations were performed by analyzing the system within the perspective of given faults to perform system analysis in both permanent and short-circuit conditions. To highlight possible protection issues, the steady state condition and the three-phase short-circuit faults were studied and simulated under different load conditions for the MVAC architecture plus rotary converters, with hybrid (electric/diesel/gas turbine) propulsion.
