Opportunity costs of carbon sequestration in a forest concession in central Africa

Abstract

Background: A large proportion of the tropical rain forests of central Africa undergo periodic selective logging for timber harvesting. The REDD+ mechanism could promote less intensive logging if revenue from the additional carbon stored in the forest compensates financially for the reduced timber yield. Results: Carbon stocks, and timber yields, and their associated values, were predicted at the scale of a forest concession in Gabon over a project scenario of 40 yr with reduced logging intensity. Considering that the timber contribution margin (i.e. the selling price of timber minus its production costs) varies between 10 and US$40 m?3, the minimum price of carbon that enables carbon revenues to compensate forgone timber benefits ranges between US$4.4 and US$25.9/tCO2 depending on the management scenario implemented. Conclusions: Where multiple suppliers of emission reductions compete in a REDD+ carbon market, tropical timber companies are likely to change their management practices only if very favourable conditions are met, namely if the timber contribution margin remains.