Governing chaos: uncertainty and the comparative examination of the 2010/2011 uprisings in North Africa

Abstract

This article engages the theoretical debate on 'continuity and change' before and after the so-called 'Arab Spring' and argues that the notion of uncertainty can further our understanding of continuity and change in the region. The article argues that the scholarship on the Middle East has so far failed to produce relevant theoretical innovation as an effect of the theoretical instruments previously dominant in the discipline, namely the two paradigms of democratization and authoritarian resilience. The article is composed of four sections. After a short examination of the two 'paradogmas' and their rigidities, the article focuses on the issues that scholars have debated after the outburst of the Arab Uprisings, examining those assumptions that the uprisings have contributed to dismantle. Next, the article discusses the notion of uncertainty as analytical tool and it finally examines three case-studies in order to substantiate the claims about its usefulness.