РЕФЕРЕНДУМ 2014 Г. КАК ЗАКЛЮЧИТЕЛЬНЫЙ ШАГ НА ПУТИ К ПОЛИТИЧЕСКОЙ НЕЗАВИСИМОСТИ ШОТЛАНДИИ

Abstract

Освещается проблема проведения референдума в Шотландии по вопросу выхода из состава Соединенного королевства Великобритании и обретения статуса независимого государства. Авторами приводится описание исторического контекста данного политического процесса, основных целей и мотивов шотландского правительства для получения самостоятельности. Рассматриваются основные потенциальные проблемы независимого государства, наличие или отсутствие их решений у правительства страны. Осуществляется суммирование приведенных факторов и оценка их потенциального воздействия на итог референдума. ; The article covers the problem of Scotland secession from the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Mainly the article is devoted to the agreement between the Scottish Government and the UK government on the arrangement of the independence referendum in September 2014 in Scotland. The authors give the short overview of some facts from the history of Scotland, as well as the current authorities and the principal goal of the government to attain independence. The result of the independence referendum will show if Great Britain preserves its current structure or, on the contrary, Scotland receives the status of an independent state. It is generally known, that the secession of Scotland will bring about alterations in the internal economic policy of the country, in its membership in supranational organizations and its participation in military conflicts. Aiming at the detailed coverage of the situation, the authors analyze a number of pro and contra arguments on the issue of independence of Scotland. The supporting arguments list includes the following aspects: the liquidation of nuclear submarine base, its own vote in the UN and membership in the EU, economic strength of Scotland. The national internal dept which proves the dependence of Scottish economic and social spheres on the subsidies from the British budget appears to be one of the leading factors, which prevents Scotland from being separated from the UK and thus becoming the independent state. Other economic issues to be settled are the currency of the state and the location of banking sector of Scotland. Contrary to the opinion of the Scottish party, the solutions for the above-mentioned questions and for the question on the membership in the EU can not be found so easily. The latter point a complex one as it involves economic, political and national components. For the reason of political identity, the Scottish government has no right for "back-pedals", so it continues its great campaign to popularize the separation ideas, to encourage the youngsters above the age of 16 to vote. The article contains some examples of public opinion and the statistics of social surveys, which, on the one hand, stress the emotional support of independence, and, on the other hand, show the distrust to the program of the First Minister and worries about the future of the state. Moreover, the article deals with the alternative way, the so called "Light Independence", which implies the widening of powers of the Scottish government as a part of the UK. In the article the authors try to sum up the above-mentioned factors, to scrutinize their influence on the current situation and thus to make a supposition about the result of the political process in the analysis.